Battle of the Bastions: Will Tharoor's Thiruvananthapuram become BJP's gateway in Kerala?

Battle of the Bastions: Will Tharoor's Thiruvananthapuram become BJP's gateway in Kerala?

In 2009, the UN diplomat-turned-Congress leader Shashi Tharoor successfully shed his outsider tag in Thiruvananthapuram, the Lok Sabha constituency that encompasses the major part of Thiruvananthapuram city, the capital of Kerala.

Fifteen years later, the former UN Under Secretary General, now a three-term elected member of parliament, is at the centre of the most sought after poll contest in the southern state of Kerala. The electorate in Kerala’s all 20 parliamentary constituencies will vote on April 26 during the second phase of polling for the elections of 18th Lok Sabha, the lower house of Indian parliament directly elected by the people.

The ruling Bharatiya Janata Party has never won a Lok Sabha seat in Kerala, the southern state almost alternately governed by the Congress and Left parties in recent decades.

But with Union minister Rajeev Chandrasekhar as its Lok Sabha candidate against Tharoor, the BJP is hoping that Thiruvananthapuram would emerge as its gateway to Kerala this time.

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The ruling party with Prime Minister Narendra Modi at its helm came close to winning Thiruvananthapuram in 2014, when O. Rajagopal lost out to Shashi Tharoor by a wafer thin margin of over 15,000 votes in a contest that turned trilateral between the Congress, BJP and Communist Party of India.

While Shashi Tharoor extended his margin of victory to nearly 100,000 votes in 2019 Lok Sabha elections, the BJP is expecting a repeat of electoral circumstances similar to 2014 to push Chandrasekhar to the edge of victory.

Battle of the Bastions

Battle of the Bastions: Shashi Tharoor’s performance in Thiruvananthapuram during last three General Elections

The BJP led in four of Thiruvananthapuram’s seven assembly segments in 2014.

But Tharoor’s victory margin in three state assembly segments of Parassala, Kovalam and Nettattinkara was enough to pave his path to Lok Sabha in New Delhi. 

Thiruvananthapuram Lok Sabha constituency

Thiruvananthapuram Lok Sabha constituency: Distribution of state assembly segments

But despite Chandrasekhar as its candidate against Tharoor, it is not going to be an “easy outing for the BJP in Thiruvananthapuram”, said psephologist and political strategist JVC Sreeram.

“What Chandrasekhar’s candidature tells is the fact that BJP is serious about making a dent in Kerala. Having come second in 2014 and in 2019, it sees a serious chance in Thiruvananthapuram. By fielding Rajeev Chandrasekar they have turned this into a battle of intellectuals. Both of them could appeal to the elite of the constituency,” Sreeram added.

Thiruvananthapuram is scheduled to vote on April 26. The counting of votes will be held on June 4, 2024.