Barclays global chairman of research: I'd be shocked if the Fed doesn't call for one cut in 2024 instead of 3

The commodities rally complicating the feds fight against inflation. Jay, given their credibility, got a hammering a number of years ago with their blunder on the transitory insistence for inflation. Are they getting it right now? Considering that, you know, every Fed member seems to have a different view. You know, on the same day you might get one Fed member saying there’s going to be 3 cuts to see another one will say there’s only going to be one who’s getting it right. So I have some sympathy for the fact because God knows, you know, the street, ourselves included. I’ve also changed our forecast a number of times in the last last three or four months. The fact of the matter is the inflation data has jumped up and smacked you in the face in the last three months in the US that just is what has happened. And for seven months before that, the inflation numbers kept going down, down, down, down, down very smoothly, way, way more softly than expected. And then suddenly, you know, so, so I have some. Some sympathy for for Pavel when he was coming out and saying, look, the Jan and Feb inflation data was a bump in the road. He clearly wanted to cut. You know what I think of as insurance cuts or adjustment cuts, But after the March CPI print, I I I think he’s going to struggle. I would be shocked if they don’t change their forecast to call for one cut in 2024, you know, from the three that they are calling for right now. OK, well hold a breath and wait and see.