Australia watching as Solomon Islands heads to ballot box

Australia will be keeping an eagle eye on today’s Solomon Islands national election, the first since Prime Minister Manasseh Sogavare signed a controversial security agreement with China.

The outcome of the poll fought between the pro-Beijing PM and opposition parties that favour closer ties with Western nations is set to impact already high geo-political tensions.

While the Solomon Islands has a population of just 700,000 people, it sits in a strategically vital place, only 1700km from the north Queensland coast.

Chinese naval ambitions in the Pacific are a major concern for Australian and its principle ally, the United States.

Australia, alongside regional partners such as New Zealand, also has a record of restoring order when national politics in the Solomon Islands suddenly becoming chaotic and even violent.

In 2019, Australia sent troops and police to the capital Honiara after riots broke out when the Sogavare government decided to formally recognise China ahead of Taiwan.

Over past weeks, Australia deployed hundreds of federal police officers and observers for today’s election at the invitation of the Solomon Islands government.

It’s part of a multinational effort to ensure stability during the polls. But there is also a Chinese security police team on the Solomon Islands tasked with training local officers.

Candidates in the Solomon Island election parade in the capital Honiara,. (AP Photo/Charley Priringi)

Pacific expert Meg Keen, from the Lowy Institute think tank, told 9news.com.au any unrest during the election could lead to Chinese police being deployed to restore order.

“There are Chinese police embedded in the local police and they have an agreement … in the event of any unrest, that with Solomon Islands’ invitation, they could deploy armed security to the islands,” she said.

“This would be a big break for regional security … traditionally Australia and other regional partners such as New Zealand have responded at time of election unrest.”

But Keane says the election “will be fought on local issues, not geopolitics”.

There’s a chronic lack of healthcare services, high youth unemployment and poor transport links throughout the archipelago.

She says Sogavare has a “fifty-fifty” chance of being re-elected, and must convince enough voters his pro-China policies can deliver real economic benefits.

And if he pulls it off, it would defy political history in the small island nation. No Solomon Islands prime minister has served consecutive terms since it gained independence from Britain in 1978.

The Solomon Islands has been China’s biggest success in a campaign to expand its presence in the South Pacific.

The Sogavare government signed a secretive security agreement with Beijing in 2022 that might have allowed Chinese military forces in the South Pacific. But, Sogavare rejected suggestions his government might give Beijing a military foothold in the region.

Australia and the US signalled that would be considered a red line for them.