Dolphins facing potential no-win situation with Tua Tagovailoa's contract

Miami Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa.

The Miami Dolphins are in the no-man’s land of quarterback situations in the NFL, and they could be facing a no-win situation in the coming months — and seasons — with Tua Tagovailoa.

The issue isn’t that Tagovailoa is a bad player. Far from it. He is a top-half of the league quarterback and is coming off a huge statistical season that saw him lead the league in passing yards.

A lot of teams would love to have him, especially at his current salary.

The final part of that sentence, however, is the key.

“At his current salary.”

The issue that Miami has looming is that it is inevitably going to sign Tagovailoa to a contract extension that will almost certainly make him one of the highest paid players in the league.

When that happens a lot of Tagovailoa’s value could potentially disappear as he goes from productive player on a bargain contract in a high-flying offense, to a potential cap-crushing liability that does not have the difference-making ability to elevate his team to the next level.

As we outlined in our “worst flaw” piece on Tuesday, Tagovailoa does not really have the arm-strength or play-extending ability that a lot of the AFC’s top quarterbacks (specifically Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson) currently have.

That puts limitations on the Dolphins offense against the league’s better teams, and plays a big role into why they have so badly struggled against the league’s top teams the past two years.

That does not even get into his injury history and the risks that come along with that.

This is one of the big flaws with the way the quarterback position is handled in the NFL right now. There is basically no middle-class of passers at the position and it leaves teams like Miami in a situation where they really don’t have a good solution.

Tagovailoa is too good to toss aside. They won’t find a better player at a cheaper price on the open market, and they have almost no chance of landing one of the top quarterbacks in the 2024 NFL Draft. They almost have to keep him.

But because he is too good to get rid of and too good to replace, that leaves them in a position where they almost have to dramatically overpay him to keep up with the quarterback market.

The days of being able to find a mid-level quarterback at a mid-level price are long gone. You either have to get lucky and find somebody on a rookie contract, or have an elite, top-five passer that is worthy of the big-money contract.

The Dolphins are going to have to pay first-tier money to a second-tier player. For a team that already has salary cap limitations, as well as having to compete in an AFC that is loaded with franchise quarterbacks, that could be a significant long-term limitation.

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