Arsenal made mistake over £34m ace who's now worth less than Smith Rowe

Arsenal made mistake over £34m ace who’s now worth less than Smith Rowe

It’s a great time to be an Arsenal fan at the moment.

Mikel Arteta has the team playing some tremendously exciting football, which has seen them reach the top of the Premier League table and advance to the Champions League quarterfinals.

The club have also benefitted from the soaring value of the players in the squad, with players like Bukayo Saka and Declan Rice now worth their weight in gold, surpassing valuations of €90m – £77m – by Football Transfers’ Expected Value model.

However, it would appear that a rising tide does not, in fact, lift all boats, as alongside Emile Smith Rowe, one of the club’s most promising youngsters is now worth significantly less than he was bought for.

Emile Smith Rowe’s valuation in 2024

Smith Rowe joined Arsenal at just ten years old, fought his way up through the various youth sides and excelled out on loan with Huddersfield Town before Arteta finally gave him his shot to stake a claim in the first team in the 2020/21 season, which he certainly did, scoring four goals and providing seven assists in 33 games.

The Croydon-born ace did even better the following season, scoring 11 goals and providing two assists in 37 games, but due to a slew of injuries, the young Englishman has yet to surpass or even match that return in the two campaigns since.

The 23-year-old’s valuation has unsurprisingly mirrored his output over the last few years, with Football Transfers’ Expected Value model pricing him at €21m (£18m) in July 2021, €40m (£34m) in August 2022, €26m (£22m) in January 2023 and just €13m (£11m) today.

Emile Smith Rowe’s varying valuation

Date

Valuation

January 2018

€1m (£860k)

July 2021

€21m (£18m)

August 2022

€40m (£34m)

November 2022

€28m (£24m)

March 2023

€21M (£18m)

May 2023

€16m (£14m)

March 2024

€13m (£11m)

All Data via Football Transfers’ Expected Value model

While dramatic, the collapse in the Hale End graduate’s valuation isn’t too surprising, as he’s played just 30 competitive games for the Gunners since the start of 2022/23, and in that time, he’s provided just three assists.

What’s worse for Arteta and Co is that Smith Rowe isn’t the only player to have seen his value plummet over the last year and a half.

Fabio Vieira’s valuation in 2024

The other Arsenal man who has seen his value fall over the last year and a half is Portuguese midfielder Fabio Vieira, who completed a £34m move from Porto in June 2022.

Since then, he has made just 47 appearances for the first team, scoring three goals and providing ten assists in 1847 minutes, giving him an average of one goal involvement every 142 minutes.

Fabio Vieira’s career record

Team

Porto

Arsenal

Appearances

76

47

Goals

10

3

Assists

18

10

Goal Involvements per Match

0.36

0.27

All Stats via Transfermarkt

While the 23-year-old has generally looked okay when given a chance, he just hasn’t played enough to justify his original price tag, missing 20 games through injury in the season and a half he’s been in N5.

This underwhelming start to life at the Emirates has seen his valuation tank, with Football Transfers Expected Value model now pricing the Santa Maria da Feira-born ace at just €12m (£10m) which is £24m less than the Gunners paid for him just a year and a half ago, and £1m less than Smith Rowe.

Now, given the 5 foot 7 midfielder’s genuinely impressive record of seven goals and 16 assists in his final season with the Dragões, there is every chance he could rediscover his form next year and see his value soar above the £34m he cost the North Londoners.

However, with the club’s new-found status as title challengers, will he be given that chance?

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Ultimately, Arsenal are getting most things right at the moment, and while it’s far from ideal to see the value of these two talented players plummet, it could just be a consequence of the surrounding team surpassing them.