'No excuses': Is your AFL club bound for September?

With the 2024 AFL season just just days away from kicking off, it’s the perfect time to dive into how your club is shaping up this year.

Using just three sentences to summarise the prospects of all clubs – including a passing verdict on what their season could look like – the countdown to the season’s commencement is on.

Which club has been smashing it during the off season?

Every club and player is currently a champion, but who will make or break your club’s 2024 seasons?

Who will your club look to when the going gets tough? Whose head is on the chopping block?

Every team are the premiers in the pre season.

ADELAIDE CROWS:

After missing out on finals last year by quite literally the barest of margins, the Crows are primed for a proper September run in 2024.

Their quiet trade period in 2023 suggests they’re happy with the list they have, which showcases a healthy amount of experience and youth.

Verdict: Should be finals bound, perhaps a Top 4 bolter.

BRISBANE LIONS:

As the runners-up of 2023, the Lions are naturally at the top end of teams in the competition.

They have threatened to make the premiership cup their own for five years now, and seem to have found the perfect spine across their best 22 – can they bring their near flawless Gabba game style to the MCG on the last Saturday in September?

A grand final loss for players can make or break a career, so the Lions will be keen to be remembered for something more than being the 2023 runners up.

Verdict: Premiership contenders who have done all but win it – they’ll go deep.

Kempy stood strong in yesterday's clash with 11 intercept possessions and eight marks 🙌

— Carlton FC (@CarltonFC) February 29, 2024

CARLTON:

Fresh off signing coach Michael Voss for two more years, the belief internally at Ikon Park is real – and with good reason.

Two incredible finals wins last year gave fans a taste of what’s desired, but their conversion going inside 50 and in front of goal must improve if they’re to become a genuine contender.

Verdict: An emerging powerhouse who have no excuses to not be there come September.

COLLINGWOOD:

The reigning premiers of 2023 are tipped by many as the favourite for 2024, and they can do it again – despite the loss of Taylor Adams and Jack Ginnivan.

Nick Daicos will take his game to another level through the midfield, while fans can expect young guns Finlay Macrae and Charlie Dean to fire when given an opportunity under supercoach Craig McRae.

Verdict: Back-to-back? We think so.

ESSENDON:

Active and successful across the trade period last season, there is fresh hope that 2024 is the year Essendon put themselves back on the finals map.

Their playing list radiates a mountain of potential not reflected in recent history, but responsibility in big games has often rested far too much on a select group of senior players.

The extension of defender Jordan Ridley’s contract for an additional three years from 2026 means the club is committed to the growth of their players in hopes of winning their first flag since 2000.

Verdict: The ceiling is high, but that doesn’t guarantee finals.

FREMANTLE:

2024 shapes as a make-or-break year for the Dockers, where they will either step back into the premiership window, or be likely left looking for a new coach and sense of direction.

The development of Fremantle’s young forward line is one to watch, as well as how coach Justin Longmuir replaces the loss of Liam Henry and Lachie Schultz.,

Without a premiership to their name, the pressure falls on ruck pairing Luke Jackson and Sean Darcy to lead from the front.

Verdict: Up against it to make finals this year, and on face value it may be a task too tough

Without Cam Guthrie, Max Holmes will need to step up through the middle

GEELONG CATS:

Having missed the finals last season for just the second time since 2006, the Cats’ biggest focus this year is no doubt their ability to develop youth on their list while still making a run for the flag.

Dangerfield, Hawkins, Blicavs, Duncan, Tuohy and Stanley are all in the twilight stage of their career, so is it now or never for Chris Scott’s men?

Additionally, the major loss of Cam Guthrie for up to 10 weeks with a quad injury could prove deadly for the Cats midfielders. The pressure is on Tom Atkins, Max Holmes and the club’s young brigade to step up and fast.

Verdict: So often they prove critics wrong, but it’s never easy to bounce back quickly.

GOLD COAST SUNS:

Star coach Damien Hardwick has high hopes for his men in red and yellow this season, but his signing still doesn’t clear the air around the club’s absence of a finals berth since establishment.

The pass mark for the Suns in 2024 is as simple as they come, with making finals the only way they can avoid another failed season.

Wil Powell already admitted he and the playing group are in awe of Hardwick.

“Every time he stands in front of us and speaks it’s like, ‘wow, this bloke knows what he’s talking about’,” Powell said in January.

Verdict: As good as Hardwick is, it may take more than one season under him to make finals.

GWS GIANTS:

Having agonisingly lost to the eventual premiers in last year’s preliminary final, GWS know they can match it with the best come crunch time.

With two of the competitions most elite key defenders and a lot of outside run to go with it, there’s enough talent there to suggest their form in the second half of 2023 was more than just a fluke.

Verdict: Should be around the mark come September, just need to be consistent.

HAWTHORN:

Hawthorn’s off-season has been nothing short of disastrous, with a bone stress diagnosed in 18-year-old recruit Will McCabe’s back making matters worse last week.

McCabe becomes the fourth Hawk to go down, following Changkuoth Jiath with a hamstring injury, James Blanck (ACL) and Denver Grainger-Barras with toe problems.

A very active trade period last season suggests Mitchell knows exactly what he wants, but also creates a lot more unknown amongst a relatively young group.

Verdict: On the back foot already, finals aren’t impossible but would be an overachievement.

MELBOURNE:

The red and the blue have had far more off-field attention than desired across the summer break, but that shouldn’t deter from the sheer amount of potential their list has.

Efficiency by foot and their forward line fire power are the two bigquestion marks that need resolving, otherwise a 2024 premiership will be near impossible to come by.

Max Gawn proved his worth in the club’s practice match against Carlton, indicating that opposition are yet to figure out the rucking beast’s full-ground agility.

With the sad retirement of Angus Brayshaw due to concussion, the Dees will need to find another hard-at-it, in-and-under midfielder to fill his spot.

Verdict: Not as stable as previous years, but their best is so, so good – finals.

NORTH MELBOURNE:

Met with more empathy than criticism last year, 2024 is the year Kangaroos fans need to see significant on-field improvements.

With a list that oozes young ball-winning talent and a star forward in Larkey, Clarkson should be hopeful in his ability to cause chaos against the better teams.

The contract extension for young star Harry Sheezel will give fans hope that the club is attracting and retaining the best young talent in the league.

Verdict: Another year of development, but this time with a few more wins. On the improve.

PORT ADELAIDE:

In what was shaping as a potential premiership push last year, Ken Hinkley’s men need to do far better than a straight sets finals exit.

With some excellent off-field recruiting in 2023, they’ll be there again this year in September – but there’s no denying the concern surrounding an inability to convert home-and-away form come finals.

Port’s biggest challenge? Fixing their incredibly leaky defence. The Power conceded 1906 points last season, the most in the top 10. The pressure is on Ken Hinkley’s men.

Verdict: A Top 2 finish seems crazily important to their flag chances. In with a real shot.

RICHMOND:

With a new head coach for the first time since 2010, the Tigers head into 2024 as a mystery many can’t identify.

Tom Lynch’s indefinite foot injury and Jack Riewoldt’s retirement leave large expectations on the shoulders of new recruit Jacob Koschitzke, who may hold the key to Punt Road’s unlikely push for finals.

All eyes will be on Dustin Martin, who comes to the end of his nine-year mega deal.

Coach Adem Yze says he’ll support the premiership star.

“We want Dusty to be happy,” Yze said in November.

Verdict: Finals looks a stretch, but their list is promising enough to give onlookers belief.

ST KILDA:

A club and fanbase who has held themselves to such high expectations for many years now, the Saints must win a final if they want to be taken seriously moving forward.

Paddy Dow and Liam Henry fill the void left by former players last year perfectly, while coach Ross Lyon the Boss will be sure to maintain his ‘defence is the best form of attack’ mentality on a competition pleading for St Kilda success.

Verdict: Likely to be tussling for the right to an elimination final among many others.

New solo captain Callum Mills will feel all the pressure as the Swans again fell short in September last year.

SYDNEY SWANS:

The winners of last year’s trade period are now just one question mark away from looking like a bullish team on paper, so can Joel Amartey, Logan McDonald and Hayden McLean fill the Buddy Franklin void?

Their weakness around the stoppage last year will almost certainly be rectified by the addition of recruits Brodie Grundy and Taylor Adams, and if the key forwards can work well with Tom Papley – they’re the real deal.

Verdict: A massive call, but we think they’re a premiership dark horse. So much to like.

WEST COAST EAGLES:

It’s been a brutal ride for West Coast fans these last two years, but a new season means fresh hope for Adam Simpson’s side out west.

Harley Reid will dominate headlines, but don’t underestimate the output of Reuben Ginbey, who can play a big part in any success the Eagles have this season.

Reid’s big worry will be staying fit, after suffering a few minor injury bumps during the first few weeks of his maiden AFL pre season.

Verdict: It can’t get worse than last season… we hope. Lots of good, young talent to watch.

WESTERN BULLDOGS:

It’s now or never for Bulldogs coach Luke Beveridge, who is widely regarded as having one of, if not the strongest and most versatile playing list in the AFL.

If Beveridge is able to finally find a permanent midfield combination and continue the side’s dangerous run off half-back, the Bulldogs will be as good as anyone this season.

After narrowly missing out on a Brownlow medal to Brisbane’s Lachie Neale, star midfielder Marcus Bontempelli is likely to find another level to strive for in 2024.

Verdict: No excuses to not make finals, but similarly to St Kilda, could be scrapping for a spot.