30 Years of Democracy: Ipsos poll sheds light on where political parties stand with SA voters

30 Years of Democracy: Ipsos poll sheds light on where political parties stand with SA voters

With only a month remaining before the elections, the political landscape in South Africa is undergoing significant shifts, this is according to an Ipsos poll conducted through interviews in March and April.

The poll, surveyed randomly selected nationals across all nine provinces, settlement types, and rural areas in South Africa.

The poll further noted that the African National Congress (ANC) is struggling to impress voters, with support for the ruling party well below 50%.

The poll revealed that nationally, only 38% believe that the ANC will live up to their election promises, and the party’s support base has long been concentrated in rural areas.

In a press statement, Ipsos, a multinational market research and consulting firm, said the discontent among South African voters is further evidenced with a mere 23% of registered voters believing that the country is moving in the right direction, while two-thirds (66%) think that the country’s current “direction of travel” is wrong.

Picture: Ipsos

“This underscores the need for political parties and candidates to address the concerns of the electorate,” Ipsos said.

“Those who indicated that they were registered to vote (a total of 2,545) were separately analysed. The results for registered voters were weighted and projected using the Electoral Commission (IEC) registration figures, which indicated that the voters’ roll contains 27,698,201 names.

“The official formation of the uMkhonto we Sizwe (MK Party) in December 2023 had a profound effect on the distribution of support among the leading political parties over the last few months – as illustrated in the graph overleaf,” Ipsos said.

According to the poll, the emergence of MK Party has halted the advances made by the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) in recent years, particularly in KZN, with some former EFF supporters migrating to the new party.

“Meanwhile, the Democratic Alliance (DA) is maintaining its position, attracting the support of about a fifth of the electorate.

“As the campaign enters its final weeks, uncertainty is highest in KwaZulu-Natal, where almost a fifth of the electorate has not yet decided which party or candidate they will vote for. The Inkatha Freedom Party’s (IFP) support is mainly concentrated in KZN, while Action SA’s support comes primarily from Gauteng. Although the FF+ has low overall support, it comes from across the country,” Ipsos stated.

The poll noted that Gauteng and KZN, with 23.6% and 20.7% of the electorate respectively, will once again be the key provinces to watch in this election. With women comprising 55.24% of registered voters, political parties would be wise to focus on the views and opinions of women during the final month of campaigning.

Ipsos stated that the party support figures discussed should not be seen as a firm prediction of possible election results, as the next month will no doubt bring much volatility and change to the political environment. Moreover, not all registered voters will turn out to vote on election day and this will also influence final election outcomes.

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