2024 New York Mets season predictions

Spring training is over. The winter has turned to spring, and New York Mets baseball is upon us in 2024 and everybody is amped for the season to begin.

This is the start of what Mets fans hope is something special, with new front office leadership led by one of the great minds in sports, a new manager, and an organization filled with plenty of exciting prospects with a goal of sustained farm system strength, things fans have been wanting for years.

So on this Opening Day Eve, we officially lay down the final predictions on this baseball season after an offseason of dramatic changes with the Mets organization, and we’ll break everything down by group.

Starting Lineup

While much attention was placed on the Mets’ exciting prospects the team acquired at last year’s trade deadline, the Mets still have their collection of household names that are raring to go, like Brandon Nimmo, Francisco Lindor, Pete Alonso, and Jeff McNeil (for now) at the top.

With the late addition of a pro’s pro in designated hitter J.D. Martinez (who is undergoing a spring ramp up), the Mets lineup has more of a punch that it didn’t have last year. Martinez’s intelligence and drive to win should be felt across the team, especially with the younger hitters that have something to prove.

The questions lie at the bottom of the Mets lineup. Was Starling Marte’s somewhat concerning spring performance a foretaste of his 2024 season? Can Brett Baty finally break out offensively after winning the third base job? Then what about Mark Vientos when he gets a chance in the majors after starting the season in Triple-A? Finally, can Francisco Alvarez take that next leap towards his development as a budding star in this league? And how much value will center fielder Harrison Bader and probable Opening Day designated hitter DJ Stewart bring at the plate?

Aside from the current Mets, will we see the future Mets at any point this season, like Drew Gilbert, Ryan Clifford, or Luisangel Acuna?

It feels like this Mets lineup is better than it was last season, and definitely a better lineup defensively with Nimmo moving to left field. It will be a boom or bust season for the Mets lineup, especially at the bottom.

Bench

Outside of backup catcher Omar Narvaez, the Mets bench consists of players who were not in the organization last year, in Joey Wendle, Zach Short, and Tyrone Taylor.

The Mets front office emphasized defense this offseason, and their decision to put Zach Short on the Opening Day roster is proof of that. Short played well defensively across multiple infield positions, and did just enough offensively to make the team, although he is a career .174 hitter.Short appeared to be their Luis Guillorme replacement. Joey Wendle was brought on for similar reasons, with his defense outweighing his bat.

Then Tyrone Taylor brings an underrated power and speed combination that could prove crucial for the Mets, especially if they lose an outfielder.

Starting Pitching

The Mets open the season with Jose Quintana, Luis Severino, Tylor Megill, Sean Manaea, and Adrian Houser in their rotation, with most of them coming in with something to prove. Luis Severino will have to prove his strong spring (1.29 ERA in 14 innings) was not a fluke. Tylor Megill will need to show his new pitches are effective, and there is reason for hope following his performance this spring, in which he won the race for the last spot in the rotation.

Sean Manaea and Adrian Houser will need to show they want to stay in the rotation, especially if somebody pitches well enough in Triple-A to warrant a spot in the majors.

Speaking of Triple-A, Jose Butto and Joey Lucchesi are both immediate options who are coming off strong finishes to last season. You also have top pitching prospect Christian Scott who could contribute at some point this season, as well as other top pitching prospects like Dom Hamel and Mike Vasil, though both probably have work to do to be major league ready.

With Kodai Senga and David Peterson looking like midseason returns to the majors, you are looking at as many as 12 viable starter options this season, which is quite impressive. But the quality and consistency of their starting pitching this year is full of question marks and could be the difference between playoffs and no playoffs for the Mets.

Relief Pitching

The Mets bullpen will be better than it was last year, thanks to the return of Edwin Diaz after missing all of last season due to injury. The bullpen has a lot more talent and depth compared to last season, but the question will be can the relievers deliver results and throw strikes at a consistent basis.

The bullpen to start the season will be Diaz, Adam Ottavino, Brooks Raley, Drew Smith, Jake Diekman and Jorge Lopez for sure. They will also carry two of the following: Michael Tonkin, Sean Reid-Foley, and Yohan Ramirez. Tonkin and Ramirez both turned in good springs, while Reid-Foley was excellent in his brief return from Tommy John surgery late last year. A decision was not made at the time of publication.

Manager

Carlos Mendoza comes in as a rookie manager, but he is a widely respected coach across the league, and he has 15 years of coaching experience in the Yankees organization.

David Stearns probably really wanted to lure Craig Counsell from the Brewers (who went to the Cubs instead), but Stearns quickly pivoted to Mendoza.

We will know right away how well he can manage a bullpen and late-inning situations, and whether he can get his guys to overperform, but remember he is a first-timer and deserves a grace period.

Official Prediction

The Mets are going to have their hands full in one of the most competitive seasons of National League baseball we have seen in years. There are about 11 teams that look like playoff contenders, and some teams got significantly better this offseason, like the Diamondbacks, Giants, and Cardinals.

The team is still behind the Phillies and the Braves in terms of pitching talent, while they are ahead of the Nationals, who are still a work in progress, and the Marlins, who are banged up with injuries.

The Mets are the ultimate boom and bust team, and the variation of results is wider with the Mets as much as any team in the majors.

But in reality, the Mets are just an average team this year.

The Mets will score 740 runs and give up 730 runs, and will finish with a record of 82-80, good for third place in the National League East, and will miss the playoffs by a couple of games.

This article was originally published on risingapple.com as 2024 New York Mets season predictions.