Covid-19 infection levels dip over Christmas and new year

Covid-19 infection levels fell slightly over Christmas and the new year, with around one in 32 people in England and Scotland likely to have tested positive for coronavirus on January 3, down from one in 22 on December 20, new figures suggest.

Health experts said it was “not unusual” to see a change in the prevalence of Covid-19 over the seasonal break, when schools and workplaces were closed and patterns of socialising were different.

The virus was estimated to be most prevalent among 35 to 44-year-olds, with south-west England and eastern England experiencing the highest regional rates.

The data has been published as part of the new winter Covid-19 infection study, which is monitoring prevalence of the virus over the next few months.

It is a smaller version of the UK-wide infection survey that ran for nearly three years and which tracked each wave of the virus on a weekly basis.

The new study publishes estimates every fortnight and is limited to England and Scotland rather than the whole of the country.

The latest figures suggest that 3.1% of people in private households in England and Scotland are likely to have tested positive for Covid-19 on January 3, the equivalent of around 1.9 million people or one in 32.

This is down from 4.5%, or around one in 22 people, a fortnight earlier on December 20 – the highest figure since the study was launched in mid-November.

The project is being run by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) and the UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) and is based on data collected from around 150,000 individuals.

Participants use lateral flow devices to test for Covid-19 and then report the results to the ONS, with each person asked to test once a month during a scheduled seven-day period.

Estimates of infection levels in the new study cannot be compared with figures from the previous survey, because the two studies use different methods of testing and compiling the data.

Professor Steven Riley, UKHSA director general for data and surveillance, said: “It is encouraging to see the first signs of a potential downturn in the rate of Covid-19 infection across the country.

“However, we should not assume that Covid-19 prevalence will rapidly drop to low levels. It is not unusual to see a temporary change in the transmission rates of respiratory infections over the Christmas period, when schools and workplaces are closed.

“It is still as important as ever that we continue to take sensible precautions to protect ourselves and those around us. If you are showing symptoms of Covid-19 or other respiratory illnesses, you should try to limit your contact with other people as much as possible, especially those who are older or more vulnerable.

“Those people who are most at risk of severe illness from Covid-19 can still come forward for their seasonal vaccination until January 31 2024. You can get a vaccine through your GP, by booking with a local NHS vaccination service, or you can find a Covid-19 vaccination walk-in site.”

A variant of Omicron BA.2.86, called JN.1, is estimated to be the most prevalent strain of Covid-19 in circulation in England, accounting for more than 60% of infections, the UKHSA said.

The World Health Organisation said last month that the additional public health risk posed by JN.1 is “currently evaluated as low”, though it may cause an increase in cases “amid a surge of other viral and bacterial infections, especially in countries entering the winter season”.

The latest update from the infection study suggests prevalence of Covid-19 has decreased in London and showed early signs of falling in all other regions during the two weeks to January 3.

(PA Graphics)

There is “considerable uncertainty” in the estimates for individual regions due to the small sample size, but they suggest that 4.3% of people in private households in south-west England are likely to have tested positive for the virus on January 3, with 3.7% for eastern England and 3.5% for north-west England.

The estimates for other regions are 3.1% for both south-east England and the West Midlands, 2.9% for London, 2.7% for Yorkshire & the Humber, 2.6% for the East Midlands and 1.6% for north-east England.

Among age groups, the rate is estimated to be highest for 35-44 year-olds, with 4.2% of people likely to test positive, followed by 18-34 year-olds (4.0%) and 45-54-year-olds (3.2%).

Levels are lower for 55-64-year-olds and people aged 75 and over (both 2.9%), 65 to 74-year-olds (2.4%) and three to 17-year-olds (1.8%).