14 more games, 16000+ possibilities: IPL playoff scenarios in 10 points

08/05/2024

With 14 games left to be played in the league stage of IPL 2024, there remain over 16,000 possible combinations of match results. No one is yet certain of making the playoffs and no team is totally ruled out. Shankar Raghuraman of TOI looks at the chances of each team.

IPL 2024 STANDINGS: Points Table | Orange Cap | Purple Cap

1. Kolkata Knight Riders : The team currently topping the table have a 36% chance of finishing the sole toppers and they could do that even with just one win from their remaining three games. Their chances of finishing joint toppers on points are an impressive 62.5%. Yet, they are still not sure of making the playoffs. If they lose all their remaining games, they could end up tied fourth with SRH, DC or LSG depending on results in other games. But there’s just a 0.1% chance of such a scenario.

2. Rajasthan Royals: Like KKR, they have a 36% chance of being sole toppers at the end of the league phase and a 62.5% chance of being at least tied for the first spot on points. Yet, they too are still not sure of making the playoffs. If they lose all their remaining games, they could end up tied fourth with SRH, DC or LSG depending on results in other games. But there’s just a 0.3% chance of such a scenario.

3. Chennai Super Kings: Currently in third place, CSK have a 75% chance of finishing within the top four slots either singly or jointly. But the best they can do is tied for top spot with one to three other teams. And the chances of that are a mere 4%.

4. Sunrisers Hyderabad: Fourth placed SRH have a healthy 72% chance of making it to the top four singly or jointly. Like CSK, the best they can hope for is a joint first spot with one to three other teams and the chances of even that are just over 2%.

5. Delhi Capitals: Lying in fifth place at the moment, DC have no chance of finishing the toppers or even joint toppers. Their chances of ending up among the top four singly or jointly are just under 50%. Their best case scenario is joint second on points and there’s a little over 4% chance of that happening.

6. Lucknow Super Giants: Currently sixth, LSG have a better chance (70%) of making the top four, singly or jointly, than DC thanks to the extra game on hand. Like CSK and SRH, the best they can do is tie for the top spot with one to three other teams. The chances of that happening are just over 2%.

7. Royal Challengers Bengaluru: Seventh-placed RCB can hope for not better than tied third or fourth and the chances of even that are just over 8%.

8. Punjab Kings: Punjab too can at best hope for tied third or fourth and the chances of that are just over 6%.

9. Gujarat Titans: GT find themselves at the bottom of the table and their chances of progressing are slim at a little over 8%, a tad better than Mumbai because of the extra game.

10. Mumbai Indians: Currently ninth, but it is almost impossible for MI to make the playoffs. Only in two combinations out of the possible 16,384 can they tie for fourth spot on points at 12 points with six other teams, which translates to a 0.01% chance.

Here’s how that can happen: MI win both their remaining games against KKR and LSG. Then they hope LSG beat SRH tonight (Wednesday), PBKS win tommorow’s (Thursday) game against RCB, GT beat CSK, RR also beat CSK, RCB beat DC and KKR beat GT, LSG beat DC, RR beat PBKS, GT beat SRH, RCB beat CSK and PBKS beat SRH. That means 13 out of the remaining 14 results need to go their way and only the KKR vs RR game makes no difference.

In short: Bet on KKR and RR making the playoffs to be joined by two out of CSK, SRH and LSG, though DC have a decent shot too. For any of the others to get into the mix would need a miracle.

How we calculate the chances

With 14 games remaining, there remain 16,384 possible combinations of match outcomes. We look at each one of those and what it would mean in terms of the final rankings of the teams. Then we work out the percentage of outcomes that would give team ‘A’ a chance of finishing in the top four, or the first spot and so on. The underlying assumption is that any given match is a 50-50 game, not unreasonable given how the IPL has unfolded this year and in other years. For instance, of the 16,384 combinations, KKR finish leaders singly or jointly in 10,240 combinations, which means a 62.5% chance of making the top spot singly or jointly.

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