Lauren Boebert's Chances of Beating GOP Rivals 3 Days Before Primary: Polls

lauren boebert's chances of beating gop rivals 3 days before primary: polls

Rep. Lauren Boebert arrives for President Joe Biden's State of the Union address during a joint meeting of Congress in the House chamber at the U.S. Capitol on March 07, 2024, in Washington, DC.

Representative Lauren Boebert, a Colorado Republican, has a strong showing compared to her GOP rivals in a recent poll, but many Coloradans remain undecided going into Tuesday's primary election.

Bobert currently serves Colorado's 3rd Congressional District, but has been campaigning to take over now-retired Representative Ken Buck's vacant seat in Colorado's 4th District. The congresswoman previously said she changed districts for personal reasons, but the move came after she narrowly won in the 3rd district during the 2022 midterms, despite it generally being viewed as having a Republican-lean.

A Kaplan Strategies poll conducted on May 31 found that 40 percent of registered voters plan to vote for Boebert, while 40 percent are undecided. Boebert's challengers received a small percent of support: Peter Yu got 5 percent, Jerry Sonnenberg got 4 percent, Deborah Flora got 4 percent, Richard Holtorf got 4 percent and Mike Lynch got 3 percent. The poll surveyed 343 registered likely voters in Colorado's 4th district and it had a margin of error of plus or minus 4.3 percent.

Boebert's polling results in late May were an improvement from a Kaplan Strategies poll conducted on February 24.

The February poll found that Boebert had 32 percent of voter support while 49 percent were uncertain whom they would vote for. The poll had a sample size of 558 registered likely voters in the 4th district and a margin of error of plus or minus 4.2 percent.

Newsweek has reached out to Boebert's campaign via email for comment.

Former President Donald Trump, who is the presumptive GOP presidential nominee, reiterated his support for Boebert on Friday.

"Congresswoman Lauren Boebert is a Proven Conservative and Effective Leader who delivers for Colorado, and our America First agenda," he wrote on his social media site, Truth Social. "Boebert is a trusted America First Fighter, and has my Complete and Total Endorsement for Colorado's 4th Congressional District!"

As previously reported by Newsweek, in a straw poll conducted at a debate in Holyoke, Colorado, on March 3—a day after Trump first endorsed Boebert in her race—the congresswoman placed third behind Sonnenberg, a former state senator and Logan County commissioner, and veteran state lawmaker Ted Harvey.

In the poll, Boebert received 30 of the 184 votes cast while Sonnenberg got 55 votes and Harvey got 38. However, 184 votes are too low to be representative of broader trends.

If Boebert does win the Republican primary she will still have to face off against the victor of the Democratic primary to win the U.S. House seat.

One of the Democratic candidates, U.S. Marine veteran Ike McCorkle, led Boebert 41 to 27 percent in a Gravis Marketing poll commissioned by McCorkle's campaign. Another 33 percent of voters were undecided. The poll was conducted from May 22 to 24, surveyed 423 likely voters in the 4th district and had a margin of error of plus or minus 4.7 percent.

A Gravis Marketing poll conducted between March 14 and 15 had McCorkle in the lead among his Democratic rivals. McCorkle had 21 percent of the vote while Karen Breslin had 11 percent, John Padora Jr. had 9 percent and Trisha Calvarese had 2 percent. Meanwhile, 57 percent were undecided. The poll surveyed 439 registered, likely Democratic primary voters in the 4th district and had a margin of error of plus or minus 4.7 percent.

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