What's at stake in the Toronto-St. Paul's byelection

A long time Liberal stronghold is now up for grabs as many voters in the riding of Toronto St. Paul prepare to choose a new MP on Monday. But with the Liberals trailing in the Tories trailing the Tories at recent polls, the outcome of the race appears to be far from deciding. That's why we're bringing in Adam Vaughn, or principal at Navigator. Former MP as well, no stranger to City News. First and foremost, let's talk about what this means for the Liberal government and for Prime Minister Justin Trudeau. He is the most to lose in this election. The prime minister's reputation would be hit hit, hit hard if if the Liberals dropped the seat. It's been Carolyn Bennett seat for a long time. It's it's it's known as a bellwether riding, but it really hasn't been since the days of Prime Minister Brian Mulroney back in the days when John Robertson and and Ron Aki used to trade it back and forth. But if if the liberals lose this, there is really a serious conversation that starts this summer about about whether or not they can win with the with the with the Prime Minister still his leader. The Conservatives, on the other hand, just have to come close to claim victory. And that makes it a little bit easier for Poly EV. But at the end of the day, it comes down to who wins and and if the liberals can hold this, then we move on to the next set of by elections because another one coming in Montreal, if in fact they lose. However, there are some chatter, there is some chatter about perhaps maybe it's time for Justin Trudeau to step down. Yeah, the word at the door is, is that there is a protest vote sort of blossoming in the in the writing. And unfortunately for the Liberals, it's, it's it sometimes the protest vote can go NDP and Conservative and the Liberals will hold the seat by running up the middle. The trouble here is that the NDP apparently is not running as strong a campaign as the Liberals would like. And, and so the protest vote unfortunately seems to be pooling around the Conservatives now. They have a long way to go, and it's one thing for people to express displeasure at the doors, nothing to get to the ballot box on a muggy, you know, sort of June afternoon. So the liberals have to really focus on getting out the vote. The good news for them is they have the vote identified. They have the machine to pull it. The question is, are they pulling protesters to the ballot box? Are they bringing loyal liberals? Those protesters, however, have to be satisfied with the alternative. Do you think Pierre Polio have has that ability? I think he missed an opportunity here to put a named candidate in the shop window, you know, by elections. I, I ran the by election 10 years ago and, and, and took a seat from the NDP who at that point we're #2 and rising in the polls and we were supposed to be a third place party and stay that way. I came with credentials from City Hall. Stewart, the candidate for the Conservatives has no credentials in the riding. You know, he may have lived there for a while, but he hasn't really participated politically in the riding. And the Conservatives have been a non factor in this riding for the better part of three decades. So while he's riding a protest wave, the question is, can he get it to the polls And, and by elections are tricky that way. And if you don't know where the votes are, you might be getting the response at the door. But have you knocked in enough doors? My guess is probably not. My, my, you know, as a, as a Liberal, you hope they're going to hold on. But it'll be interesting to see exactly how much of the protest vote shows up and where it shows up in the writing, because that'll tell the tale as to whether or not Trudeau survives the summer. Should voters actually want to do the deep dive and see, OK, have my Liberals done enough to this point? What kind of issues are going to be our deciding factor? Well, you know, the writing, you know, is sort of described as an affluent writing, but it's got one of the highest tenant counts in in Toronto, affluent senior tenants. And and so housing remains an issue, Affordability and retirement factors remain an issue. But there's also part of the riding towards the the West End, which has a large Caribbean population. And the Liberals have been very strong within the within the black community, within the Korean communities. Big announcements down at Bathurst and Bloor with the with the the cultural centre, the largest capital investment into the black community in the history of Canada made on that announcement by by Christopher Feeling just a few weeks ago. So there are constituencies that they have relationships with. They can still rely on Leslie Church, who's the, the minister there was minister of culture had the long record inside the, the, the, the governments of Queen's Park. So there are relationships there again that she can pull on. And as a named candidate, she is more of a named candidate than the Conservative and has Liberal ministers coming in pulling on particular parts of the riding. So there are the elements there for for the Liberals to hold, but they're going to have to pull every vote and they're going to have to pull every vote hard. And every Liberal in the cities should be should be pulling the vote on Monday if they want the result they're hoping for. It's going to be interesting to watch. Adam Vaughn, former MP, thanks for joining us. No worries.

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