Market concentration could be a warning the rally is slowing: Carson Group's Ryan Detrick

You know, all of the stats I that I know you like to look at in terms of when the market has behaved in the way it has this year, number of new highs, degree of upside, all that stuff by this moment in in the year usually has good things to say about about what's to come. Is there any reason to to think otherwise at this point based on some of the internal rhythms of the market? Yeah, Mike, thanks for having me back. I mean, we are bullish, we're optimistic. But you're right. I mean, just last week, right, we had 1.6% weekly gain on the SP, yet less than 200 names in the SP were higher, less than 100 outperformed the SP500 last week. What's that tell us? Well, maybe there's a little weakening. We know and a lot of people come on all day talking about this tech that has done so well lately. Maybe there's some weakness under the surface. But honestly, Mike, I, I think it's a lot like January. We saw this in January, some weak divergences. But you know what happened? Market kind of went sideways for a week or two and then stocks caught up and a lot of participation came in. And we still think that's probably the play here. Yeah. I mean, I, I know you've been focusing on as as others have about July and its record of being very strong pretty consistently for stocks. On the other hand, the final stretch of June sometimes is where you have gotten some some choppiness. So what are the relevant things you think to focus on here going into the second-half of the year? But you're right, I mean, people are going to hear this a lot. July has been higher the last nine years for the S&P 500. But in an election year, and I came on with Scott a while ago talking about this, you tend to see your summer rally, right? June, July, August usually really strong. So we're still in that strong seasonal time frame, Mike. And then I like to look at credit spreads, right? Investor grade corporates, what's going on there? There's no monster under the bed, right? We're not seeing any major stress in credit markets. We're hitting literally the 30th all time high of the year for the S&P as we as we see and talk today. So there's always worries, concerns, but bigger picture we're overweight equities. We have been since December 22, Mike. We still think there's pretty good upside the second-half of this year coming. And do you think it pays at this point to essentially look beyond the leaders? You know that I mentioned the NASDAQ 100 up another percent and 1/2 here. It just accelerated up to higher today on on kind of nothing new. And I just wonder if if people are kind of capitulating to that particular type of of market leadership and leaving the rest behind? Well, clearly that's what we saw. I mean, last week, you know, tech was up 6%, real estate was higher and every other group really didn't do anything last week. So we're starting to see that we think there is going to be more of that. I don't capitulation is the word I want to use, but some of that moving into other areas. We like industrials, we like financials and early struggled last week. And then obviously small and mid caps are dirty words a lot of times with the underperformance we've seen. But we really think with the inflation data you get some guests come on before me talking about inflation, a lot of positive trends. I mean, grocery prices down 4 in a row, new car prices down five months in a row. There are some things happening on the inflation front. Yes, shelter is that stubborn part of it. But if you look beneath the surface bike, we think there's two cuts coming September and November. And once that's a little more clear to people with one more probably good month of inflation, that probably can add to that or allow for that broadening out, if you will, of some other groups finally taking the baton back from tech, which clearly is the All Star. Yeah, I was going to say that that seems to be the the swing factor is whether in fact you get cuts. It seems as if the market has been unwilling to sort of anticipate that moment. I guess after 11 months when rates have stayed steady, the markets not going to start giving the small caps credit for getting the rate cut before we get it. But we, you know, we did have yields come down last week and it didn't help the smaller stocks. Well, you're right, at least 10 year yield, lowest level since April, 10 year yield obviously lower also. And it did you're right, small caps did not get much of a bid at all. In fact, they struggled last week. We still think though, there's some opportunity there. And you look one more thing about last week, you know, kind of looking under the surface, leveraged loans actually hung in there pretty well. What in the world does that mean to us if there's this risk off scenario, this major worry taking place, you think there'd be more weakness there? So the fact we didn't see much weakness in leveraged loans, yes, it was all about tech last week, but still there's there were some positives under the surface there, we think. Yeah. So in other words, if small caps weakness was telling you something scary about the economy, you would expect credit to to weaken up as well and that hasn't happened. Yeah, exactly.