Canada 93 explained: why the comparison is being made with Reform's threat to Tories this election

Welfare reform

History likes to repeat itself.

This time, we could see a mirroring of a political situation which occurred more than 30 years ago, when the Progressive Conservatives lost all but two seats in Canada, resulting in years puzzling over how to rebuild.

Some politicos now predict the UK’s upcoming general election could be headed for a similar outcome, thanks to Nigel Farage’s Reform UK party.

But what happened in Canada in the year 1993, and why is a comparison being drawn today?

What happened in Canada 1993?

The Progressive Conservative Party, which had ruled Canada since 1984, fell from 167 federal seats to only two in October 1993. This ultimately caused the party to dissolve and join into the newly formed Conservative Party of Canada.

Political historians claim that Canada's history provides lessons on the difficulties of taming populist rumblings and the severe electoral losses that can ensue, as the UK's Conservative Party faces the possibility of a similar landslide defeat.

The Progressive Conservatives, Canada's dominant right-wing party, were put in a difficult position prior to the 1993 election. Prime minister Brian Mulroney resigned after almost 10 years in office due to ethical concerns about his actions and two unsuccessful attempts to change Canada's constitution.

See any similarities?

Politics analyst Éric Grenier told The Guardian: “The lessons of 1993 are that the worst-case scenario can happen. Just because you’ve been around forever doesn’t mean that you will be around forever. You can have the kind of election that requires you to restart a party and to come back from almost zero.”

So, what happened after the 1993 election?

The Progressive Conservatives were replaced as the largest right-wing party in parliament by the Reform movement. However, because it concentrated on the particular complaints of Canadians in the west, it had limited popularity nationwide. In a futile attempt to extend its appeal, years later, the party changed its name to the Canadian Alliance. In another effort to unite a right-wing voting bloc, the Progressive Conservatives and the Canadian Alliance joined shortly after.

Under Stephen Harper, the newly established Conservative Party demonstrated its viability by winning three general elections.

Why is the comparison being made to today?

There are some almost exact parallels with current political moment in the UK: the economy was failing, a conservative incumbent had recently replaced its leader, Kim Campbell, with Brian Mulroney, and it was up against a young, insurgent right-wing party named Reform.

The most significant similarity between Westminster and Canada may be that both use first past the post (FPTP), a system that has the potential to significantly skew how votes are converted into MPs.

For example, in 1993, the Progressive Conservatives received 16 per cent of the vote but were ultimately awarded fewer than one per cent of the seats.

Could the same thing happen again?

Indeed, it could, say some on the right of the UK Conservatives, who want Sunak to emulate Reform UK's more extreme right-wing populism in areas like immigration.

These warnings have developed in response to Labour's wins in this year's by-elections in Wellingborough and Kingswood, two formerly Tory seats that were won by Reform with 13 and 10 per cent of the vote, respectively.

More pessimistic Tories worry that a further decline in the polls, along with Nigel Farage's decision to take over control of Reform, could increase the latter party's popularity among disgruntled right-wing voters, turning a general election defeat into a catastrophe.

One YouGov poll that has garnered a lot of attention put Reform UK on 19 per cent, one point ahead of the Conservatives.

However, on average Reform have taken third place in most polls, but have seen a boost in support since Farage said he is taking over as party leader and standing as a candidate.

Labour is the leading party in most polls.

According to a Verian survey, which was conducted online among 1,305 persons in Britain between Friday, June 7 and Monday, June 10, Labour leads the Conservatives by 21 percentage points.

The figures are Labour 41 per cent, Conservative 20 per cent, Reform 15 per cent, Liberal Democrats 11 per cent, Green eight per cent, SNP three per cent, Plaid Cymru one per cent and other parties one per cent.

A Norstat online survey of 1,017 British adults conducted between Monday, June 10 and Wednesday, June 12, gave Labour a 20-point lead over the Conservatives.

The figures are Labour 41 per cent, Conservative 21 per cent, Reform 17 per cent, Lib Dems 11 per cent, Green six per cent, SNP three per cent, Plaid Cymru one per cent and other parties one per cent.

According to the BBC's polls from the past two weeks, support for Labour appears to have decreased slightly, but the Conservatives are still not in a good position.

On the BBC poll tracker, Labour's average has slightly decreased to 42 per cent, although they still lead the Conservatives by 20 points, who are now down to 22 per cent. Reform are at 14 per cent.

Sky News’ polls are pretty much the same except for the Conservatives, who are at 21 per cent.

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