What The Return Of Trump Would Mean For Ukraine, And Beyond
Photo of Donald Trump at a campaign rally in Phoenix, Arizona on June 6
-Analysis-
“Does he want to be a loser president?” Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky asked last week, upon discussing Donald Trump's possible plans to end the war in Ukraine by giving the occupied territories to Russia.
Trump has stated multiple times that if he is re-elected president of the United States in November, he would end the war within 24 hours. The Washington Post has reported that Trump's plan involves giving occupied Crimea and Donbas to Russia and slowing NATO's eastward expansion. Sources said Trump believes that Russia and Ukraine want to find a way to end the war while saving face.
In that case, Zelensky is confident that Russian President Vladimir Putin, having gained part of Ukraine, would soon attack again — making the U.S. president, who forced Ukraine to give up its territories, appear to be weak. Yet, specialists on American affairs say concerns about Trump's policy toward Ukraine during a second term may be exaggerated.
America first — again
If Trump wanted to force Ukraine to make peace, it is clear how he will do it: by putting an end to military and financial aid and persuading other allies to do the same.
Zelensky has said that without Western weapons, Ukraine will not be able to stand up to Russia. If Trump made such a move, it would be a dramatic change policy from that of current President Joe Biden. Of course, it is impossible to say with any certitude whether Trump would do that.
After the 2016 election, Trump was already expected to make drastic changes in relations with Ukraine, but it did not happen then, according to Ian Veselov, an Americanist and author of the One Big Union Telegram channel. Veselov stresses that Trump's foreign policy is based on what benefits the U.S., saying that his reasoning is: “As long as it benefits us to help, we help. Once we realize it's not profitable, we get out of it, and we don't bind ourselves to the idea that we owe or promised something.”
Alexandra Filippenko, another specialist on U.S. matters and author of the Elections 2024 Telegram channel, says that while the outcome of the presidential election is important, the Congressional majority plays an equally important role. She notes that while Biden's Democratic party only has a majority in the Senate, Republicans, who control the House of Representatives, were able to block the president's $60.8 billion military aid package for Ukraine for about six months.
Supporting Ukraine is clearly not a priority for Trump at the moment.
“If Trump wins the election and the Republicans take the Senate, we can assume that the situation for Ukraine will grow worse. Discussions will take longer and the terms for aid will be stricter,” Filippenko ventures. If Democrats have a majority in at least one chamber of Congress, Trump will face the same opposition that Biden did recently, and it may be difficult for him to pass bills that are unfavorable for Ukraine.
In general, Trump's statements on Ukraine should be treated as campaign statements, Filippenko says: “All these promises are addressed first and foremost to American voters. Foreign policy is not an issue they are currently following. That's why Trump says he will be engaged only in domestic politics. That's what Americans want to hear right now."
Veselov says that "supporting Ukraine is clearly not a priority for Trump at the moment."
Yet Filippenko points out that Trump's statements about ending the war in 24 hours were made them last year — and that hasn't said anything like that lately. In the final stages of the election campaign, “he probably got his information exclusively from Fox News, and then his advisers explained the real situation to him,” she said.
Trump's Zelensky grudge
A conversation with Zelensky in 2019 led to Trump's first impeachment in December of that year. In a phone call, the then U.S. president pressed his Ukrainian counterpart to investigate Biden's son, Hunter, in exchange for the release of military aid to Ukraine. “Now Trump really hates Zelensky. And Zelensky knows it,” says Ukrainian businessman Lev Parnas, who used to work for Trump's former lawyer Rudy Giuliani.
Veselov believes that “Trump, both as a politician and as a person, is quite vindictive. He often recalls offenses and unpleasant words said to him, including in the international arena. So of course, the impeachment story may have a negative impact on relations with Ukraine."
After Trump's statements about ending the war in 24 hours, Zelensky invited him to Ukraine and to the frontlines, but Trump refused, saying that a visit to Ukraine by a presidential candidate would be inappropriate.
Photo of Donald Trump and Volodymyr Zelensky in a meeting in 2019
Rethinking NATO
Trump believes that NATO countries do not contribute enough to the alliance, and has said that his administration would refuse to defend allies that did not spend at least 2% of GDP on defense. When discussing a new aid package for Ukraine, the former president said the U.S. was spending more than Europe on its support and called on EU countries to increase their spending.
Yet Trump's calculations are not quite correct. As of late February — before the $60.8 billion U.S. aid package had been approved — Europe had allocated 89.9 billion euros to Ukraine, compared to 67 billion euros by the U.S., according to the Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
Spending on military aid was about the same (42 and 43.1 billion euros), due to the fact that the U.S. has more weapons to supply to Ukraine and that the production capacity of the U.S. military-industrial complex is higher than in European countries.
American politics is very unpredictable.
If Trump cuts military aid to Ukraine, the burden will fall on Europe. Europeans may have to buy weapons for Ukraine from the U.S. — a situation that would be ideal for Trump, according to Veselov: “The Trump administration will agree to this option because it fits perfectly into the idea of 'America First'.”
The allies are already taking steps to ensure that if Trump is elected, the volume of military aid to Ukraine will be maintained, Filippenko says. In April, NATO defense ministers began discussing the transition of the leadership of the contact group on military assistance to Ukraine (Ramstein format) from the U.S. to NATO. While this transition will reduce the impact of political changes — in the U.S. and elsewhere — on the Ramstein group, it is not quite clear how this will help if, for example, Trump refuses to provide military support to Ukraine.
Filippenko thnks the NATO leadership is concerned about a possible second Trump term and understands that it would force the alliance to take on greater responsibility in general and in Ukraine.
U.S.-China trade war
China is another piece of this geopolitical puzzle. A major aspect of Trump's foreign policy has been the trade war with China, a country he considers the U.S.'s main rival. And Russia, after launching its invasion of Ukraine, has been using China to circumvent sanctions and get its hands on items used for military production.
If China sides with Russia, Filippenko says that Trump could more supportive of Ukraine. While on May 22, the British Defense Minister accused China of supplying Moscow with weapons, the EU top diplomat Josep Borrell said that the European Union had no proof.
Taiwan's independence is a major issue in U.S.-China relations.
In late May, Russian media widely circulated a report by The Washington Post that Trump told a fundraising event that he would have bombed Moscow in response to Russia's Ukraine invasion, and that he would attack Beijing if China invaded Taiwan.
Filippenko notes his comments on Beijing sound much more dangerous than those about Moscow because the war in Ukraine is already underway, and a war in Taiwan could still begin. Indeed, Taiwan's independence is a major issue in U.S.-China relations, and Biden has said he does not rule out military intervention if China were to invade.
Photo of a man reclining on a chair at a stock exchange building in northeastern China
An unpredictable election
A main event of the 2024 presidential race is Trump's conviction on all 34 counts of falsifying financial statements. The court has set Trump's sentencing for July 11, and he could face punishment ranging from a fine to a lengthy prison term. That comes just days before the Republican National Convention, which will begin on July 15 and will see the party officially nominate its presidential candidate.
American politics is very unpredictable.
Whatever the outcome of Trump's sentencing, there is no doubt that Republicans will nominate him; nothing will prevent him from running. It is difficult to say how seriously the convictions and sentencing will affect voters, according to the specialists on U.S. affairs, noting that polls have not yet recorded any sharp changes in voting intentions.
Veselov and Filippenko note other events that could influence voters' minds before Nov. 5, including Biden and Trump's first debate on June 27 — two weeks before Trump's sentencing, which may impact his performance — together with possible advances in the three other criminal cases against Trump.
"American politics is very unpredictable," Veselov says. "Often, something happens a month or two before the elections and takes over the whole agenda.”
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