More than half of Americans think the U.S. is in a recession. It's not.

more than half of americans think the u.s. is in a recession. it's not.

More than half of Americans think the U.S. is in a recession. It's not.

More than half of Americans — 56% — mistakenly believe the U.S. is currently in a recession and that Biden is responsible for a worsening economy, according to a stunning new poll conducted by Harris for The Guardian.

Why it matters: The economy is actually in good shape and there's no recession. But misperceptions like this are a huge political challenge for President Biden and an advantage for former President Trump as they vie for second terms.

Reality check: It can be difficult to know if a recession is actually happening — it's a call typically made after the fact by the National Bureau of Economic Research. (The NBER called the 2008 recession months after most people believed we were in one.)

  • In order for there to be a recession, there typically needs to be a significant decline in economic activity.
  • That's not the case now. The U.S. economy, as measured by GDP, is growing.

The big picture: It looks like inflation and the higher cost of living — indicators not typically part of the recession call by the NBER — could be shaping Americans' views.

  • 70% of Americans said that cost of living is their biggest economic concern, followed by inflation at 68%.
  • Two-thirds of Americans, including 65% of Democrats, report it's difficult to be happy about positive economic news when they feel financially squeezed each month.
  • While the rate of inflation has slowed since its 2022 highs, it is still higher than most Americans are used to — and prices are up a great deal from 2019.

Zoom in: 55% of Americans wrongly believe the U.S. economy is shrinking this year rather than growing.

  • 49% believe the S&P 500 is down for the year (it's up).
  • Figuring out the right answers is tough because 64% of Americans say they don't know who to trust when it comes to learning about the economy. And that number is relatively bipartisan.
  • Even if the information on the economy is reported correctly, 62% of Americans think the economy is worse than the media makes it out to be.

The bottom line: "Americans have perception gaps around the economy," Jacklyn Cooney, a research manager at Harris, tells Axios.

Get the rundown of the biggest stories of the day with Axios Daily Essentials.

OTHER NEWS

4 minutes ago

Florida Panthers defeat Edmonton Oilers to win Stanley Cup

4 minutes ago

Edmonton Oilers captain Connor McDavid wins Conn Smythe Trophy after Game 7 loss

4 minutes ago

Meet the North Koreans who haven't been able to return home in over 70 years

4 minutes ago

Will they or won't they? Unpacking TV's eternal question

4 minutes ago

Panthers win their 1st Stanley Cup, top Oilers in Game 7 to avoid historic collapse

4 minutes ago

Your gut microbes may influence how you handle stress

4 minutes ago

Mia Goth Addresses ‘Blade’ Delays: “They Want To Make A Great Movie” – ‘MaXXXine’ Premiere

4 minutes ago

‘Bridgerton’ Author Weighs in on “Disappointment” In Francesca’s Season 3 Twist, Asks Fans To Give Her And Shondaland “Some Faith”

4 minutes ago

Breaking Baz: Narges Rashadi & Joseph Fiennes Cast In Under-Wraps BBC Drama About Nazanin Zaghari-Ratcliffe’s Six-Year Iranian Prison Ordeal & Husband’s Tireless Campaign To Free Her

4 minutes ago

‘Second Chance’ Clip: First Look At Subhadra Mahajan’s Debut Feature Ahead Of Karlovy Vary Premiere

4 minutes ago

Judge Reinhold On Being Cast In Original ‘Beverly Hills Cop’ Before Eddie Murphy Signed On – ‘Axel F’ Premiere

4 minutes ago

Daniel Ezra To Exit ‘All American’ As Series Regular Following Season 6

4 minutes ago

Channing Tatum Says Unproduced ’21 Jump Street’ Crossover With ‘Men In Black’ Is “Still The Best Script” He’s Read

4 minutes ago

Tatiana Maslany Says Twerking With Megan Thee Stallion On ‘She-Hulk’ Was “Greatest Moment Of My Life”

5 minutes ago

Video: Kendall Jenner and Bad Bunny heat up Paris! Rapper places his hand on the supermodel's lower back as they depart Fashion Week event after rekindling romance

5 minutes ago

You make HOW much? Bank of Dave lifts lid on phone swiping epidemic in shocking gang interview

5 minutes ago

Video: Florida Panthers WIN the Stanley Cup as 2-1 victory over Edmonton Oilers in crucial Game 7 seals team's first EVER championship

5 minutes ago

Video: Kevin Costner's Aussie model starlet Abbey Lee has a wardrobe malfunction at the premiere of his new Western series in Los Angeles

5 minutes ago

Two teens arrested after posing as ICE agents and robbing Hispanic victims: police

5 minutes ago

Increased nuclear energy production legislation sent to Biden to help lower Americans’ energy bills

5 minutes ago

Maricopa County, Arizona elections center re-testing equipment after fob theft

5 minutes ago

My revenge affair saved my marriage: From restoring self-esteem to regaining control, tit-for-tat affairs can have the same benefits as therapy. These women don't regret a second

5 minutes ago

I've proved you can stop junior doctors quitting the NHS... and it isn't about money, writes PROFESSOR ROB GALLOWAY

5 minutes ago

A stunning diet test every parent should read: This family put Joe Wicks's theory that ultra-processed food causes bad behaviour to the test. The effect on eight-year-old Isobel's tantrums was remarkable

5 minutes ago

Travis Kelce reveals what made him fall for Taylor Swift as he gushes over romance with pop star: 'That's my lady'

5 minutes ago

JJ Redick set to END LeBron James podcast after taking the Lakers job - as new head coach insists he 'doesn't give a f**k' about his doubters at unveiling press conference

5 minutes ago

How Volvo became cool - five ways it ditched its bland reputation

5 minutes ago

Video: Influencer Em Davies puts her filthy white couch up for sale online for a 'ridiculous' $900 - but the reaction is VERY surprising

5 minutes ago

James Roberts: Footy star opens up about his dole and depression hell as he asks judge for mercy after pleading guilty to domestic violence offence

5 minutes ago

Sienna Miller the queen of boho-chic joins dapper Kevin Costner at premiere of his $100m new drama Horizon: An American Saga

5 minutes ago

Video: Gypsy Rose Blanchard's former cellmates reveal what it was really like to spend time with the convicted killer behind bars

5 minutes ago

Furious Aussie man's grocery shop rant sparks fierce backlash: 'Get a job'

5 minutes ago

James Roberts: Footy star opens up about his dole and depression hell as he asks judge for mercy after pleading guilty to domestic violence offence

5 minutes ago

How footy bosses are making sure there isn't a repeat of the VERY controversial national anthem at State of Origin game two

5 minutes ago

Video: WikiLeaks founder Julian Assange 'to walk free from UK jail' after agreeing to plead guilty to US spying charges in deal with Biden's Justice Department - 12 years after he fled into Ecuador embassy to avoid sex-crime quiz

5 minutes ago

Video: Kevin Bacon makes rare whole family outing with wife Kyra Sedgwick and children Sosie and Travis at MaXXXine premiere in Los Angeles

5 minutes ago

Beware of these exclusions in cheap 'essentials' car insurance, drivers warned

5 minutes ago

The huge issue shoppers have spotted with popular $18 Kmart Australia item: 'It is infuriating'

5 minutes ago

NSW Origin star Payne Haas opens up about how his tough childhood prepared him for his mum's manslaughter drama and his dad possibly facing a firing squad

5 minutes ago

Video: Democrat rips 'unhinged' colleague Jamaal Bowman for 'unbecoming' foul-mouthed Bronx rally with Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez filled with f-bombs