Trump Hosting Rally In Bronx Today As Poll Shows Biden’s Lead In New York Has Plummeted

Topline

President Joe Biden has lost a significant share of support in the Democratic stronghold of New York, according to a new survey that shows him beating former President Donald Trump there by just nine points, a warning sign as the president struggles in crucial swing states—and a surprise result that comes as Trump hosts a rally in the deep-blue Bronx.

trump hosting rally in bronx today as poll shows biden’s lead in new york has plummeted

US President Joe Biden wears sunglasses given to him by supporters after speaking on the PACT Act, which expands coverage for veterans exposed to toxic substances, at the Westwood Park YMCA in Nashua, New Hampshire, on May 21, 2024. (Photo by MANDEL NGAN/AFP via Getty Images) AFP via Getty Images

Key Facts

Biden leads Trump 47% to 38% in New York, after beating him there by 23 points in 2020 (or 61% to 38%), according to a May 13-15 Siena College poll of 1,191 registered voters.

Biden is down 20 points in New York City and Trump has gained seven points compared to their 2020 numbers, when 76% voted for Biden and 23% for Trump, the survey found.

The 14-point swing in New York appears to account for undecided voters (7%), those who won’t vote (4%) and those who would cast their ballots for another candidate (3%).

The poll is the latest in a string of recent surveys by Siena College that show Biden’s lead in New York in the high single digits or low double digits.

Biden still holds a sizeable lead in New York compared to national polls, including a May Harvard CAPS/Harris poll that found Trump leading by five points, though Biden’s support has also dipped in the Democratic stronghold of California, where he’s leading Trump by 21 points, according to RealClearPolitics’ polling average, after beating him there by 30 points in 2020.

The poll comes as Trump has been spending nearly every day of the past month in his home state for his Manhattan hush money trial—but the results show the outcome of the case wouldn’t change most New Yorkers’ minds about who they’d vote for, with 65% saying it would have no effect on their decision in November, even though 40% believe Trump will be found guilty (35% said they think he’ll be found not guilty and 26% said they didn’t know).

Get Forbes Breaking News Text Alerts: We’re launching text message alerts so you'll always know the biggest stories shaping the day’s headlines. Text “Alerts” to (201) 335-0739 or sign up here.

Surprising Fact

New York hasn’t voted for a Republican presidential candidate since Ronald Reagan in 1984.

What To Watch For

Trump is set to hold a rally in the South Bronx later Thursday in an appeal to Black and Hispanic voters who have strayed from the president since 2020. A May USA Today/Suffolk University poll found 64% of Black voters said they’ll vote for Biden in November, compared to the 92% who voted for him in 2020, according to Pew Research. Meanwhile, 34% of Hispanic voters said they’ll vote for Biden this year, USA Today/Suffolk found, compared to the 59% who voted for him in 2020, according to Pew. The Bronx overwhelmingly voted for Biden over Trump, 84% to 16%, in 2020.

Key Background

Trump and Biden are in a closely contested race headed into November, with polls showing Trump leading Biden by less than one point nationally, according to RealClearPolitics’ polling average. Polls in the six crucial swing states Biden won to secure his win in 2020 consistently show Trump beating him by single-digit margins in a majority of those states. A New York Times/Siena/Philadelphia Inquirer poll conducted in April and released May 13 found Trump would beat Biden in five of six swing states (Pennsylvania, Arizona, Michigan, Georgia and Nevada), with the exception of Wisconsin.

Further Reading

Biden Vs. Trump 2024 Election Polls: Trump Leads Biden By 4 Points In Latest Swing State Poll (Forbes)

OTHER NEWS

25 minutes ago

MPs & MLAs should constantly monitor development and public welfare works: CM Yogi

25 minutes ago

Labor disregards renewable costings and slams Opposition’s nuclear ‘cost of transition’

25 minutes ago

Stocks are sexy, but these market gurus see a generational opportunity in bonds

30 minutes ago

Kaunda’s posting to NCOP came as a shock

30 minutes ago

Brittney Griner Sends Serious Team USA Message Despite Backlash

30 minutes ago

UN welcomes Israel announcement of Gaza ‘pauses’ for aid deliveries

30 minutes ago

France coach Deschamps on brink of ton of triumphs

30 minutes ago

A Father's Day ode to Papi, and what I never asked

34 minutes ago

Video: Kate Middleton embraced late Queen's 'stoicism and calm' as she showed 'confident determination, reassurance and support' during Trooping the Colour, body language expert claims

35 minutes ago

Behind the scenes at Hajj: The lifecycle of Jamarat pebbles

35 minutes ago

Scotland vs Switzerland: Euro 2024 prediction, kick-off time, TV, live stream, team news, h2h results, odds

35 minutes ago

De Minaur wins Dutch grasscourt title to hit a new high ahead of Wimbledon

35 minutes ago

How much does it cost to build a golf course?

35 minutes ago

Nearby Iranian ship ignores distress call of ship attacked by Houthis

35 minutes ago

This part of the US is at highest risk for a devastating tsunami

35 minutes ago

Russian soldier says army suffering heavy losses in Kharkiv offensive

36 minutes ago

Police shoot axe-wielding man before Euro match

36 minutes ago

Two killed, several wounded in shooting in Texas park

37 minutes ago

Jack Draper beats Matteo Berrettini to win Stuttgart Open and first ATP title

37 minutes ago

Search resumes for boater reported missing in Chicago's ‘playpen'

39 minutes ago

Video: British couple, 44 and 30, are rushed to hospital with second-degree burns after boat explodes in Majorca

40 minutes ago

Dog bitten by venomous snake at Connecticut state park prompts risky mountaintop rescue

40 minutes ago

Brilliant Bulls end Leinster's season and reach URC final

40 minutes ago

Donald Trump challenged Biden to a cognitive test, then got his own doctor’s name wrong

41 minutes ago

Ukraine updates: Swiss peeace summit enters second day

41 minutes ago

NT government confirms option on the table to build more houses, infrastructure outside of Wadeye

41 minutes ago

One House Of The Dragon Star Refuses To Watch Game Of Thrones

41 minutes ago

Influencer Jadé Tuncdoruk welcomes first child with husband Lachie Brycki and reveals newborn's unique name

44 minutes ago

Heathrow faces near billion-pound rates time bomb

44 minutes ago

Euro 2024 scores, results, highlights, standings: Switzerland top Hungary in Group A; Spain face Croatia

45 minutes ago

The rise of ‘micro-schools’: Parents opt for alternative child learning amid public education concerns

45 minutes ago

A couple who achieved financial independence and retired in their 30s shares their $280,000 a year budget raising 2 kids in San Francisco

45 minutes ago

Twiggy v Facebook: Decision looms in billionaire’s anti-scam battle

45 minutes ago

‘No joy’: Gazans mark sombre Eid in shadow of war

45 minutes ago

Jack Draper wins maiden title with impressive display against Matteo Berrettini

46 minutes ago

3 in-demand remote jobs hiring now that pay $100,000 in 2024

46 minutes ago

Steve Jobs built Apple using a simple piece of advice from his dad: ‘He loved doing things right'

47 minutes ago

Top Wall Street analysts suggest these 3 dividend stocks for enhanced returns

47 minutes ago

Growing heat dome to produce warmest temperatures in years with 100-degree readings in Northeast

47 minutes ago

British couple, 44 and 30, are rushed to hospital with second-degree burns after boat explodes in Majorca