Catalans vote in election that offers new chance to exiled separatist leader

May 7, 2024. REUTERS/Nacho Doce

By Joan Faus

BARCELONA (Reuters) -Catalans voted on Sunday in a regional election that offers the possibility of the return to power of a separatist politician who led a breakaway attempt in 2017, or an anti-independence government led by the Socialist Party.

FILE PHOTO: Spain's Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez speaks during an event in support of Socialist candidate (PSC) for Catalan elections Salvador Illa, in Sant Boi de Llobregat, near Barcelona, Spain, May 2, 2024. REUTERS/Albert Gea/File Photo

Opinion polls forecast a comfortable lead for Socialist candidate Salvador Illa over the hardline separatist Junts and its more moderate rival Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya (ERC), which currently governs the wealthy northeastern region.

An election campaign poster stating that it was generated using artificial intelligence and showing Exiled Catalan separatist leader Carles Puigdemont, candidate of Junts Per Catalunya (Together for Catalonia) party shaking hands with Spain's Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez, reads "Stop Them", is pictured ahead of the upcoming Spain's Catalonia region election, in Barcelona, Spain May 10, 2024. REUTERS/Bruna Casas

A Catalan government led by Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez's Socialists would end a decade of separatist governments that have roiled Spanish politics, and would be a vindication of Sanchez's conciliatory approach with the region.

But whoever wins will probably have to govern with alliances since no party looks likely to reach the 68-seat threshold for a majority on its own, meaning Sunday's vote could herald the start of coalition talks lasting well beyond the election.

Junts' candidate is Carles Puigdemont, who was Catalonia's president during the ill-fated attempt to wrest the region from Spain in 2017 before he fled to self-imposed exile in Belgium.

Puigdemont has for years faced prosecution in Spain over the independence bid, and campaigned from southern France. But he is set to return home following an amnesty put forward by the Socialist government in Madrid that would annul his arrest warrant, and has vowed to resurrect an independence bid.

Polls close at 8 p.m. (1800 GMT), with results expected at around 10 p.m. (2000 GMT).

A poll of polls published by El Pais newspaper last week showed the Socialists stand to win 40 seats in the Catalan assembly, with Junts forecast to get 34 and ERC 26.

But some surveys showed that around 40% of voters were undecided, so any outcome is possible, and the winning party is likely to need to find a governing partner.

If the Socialists win they may seek an alliance with ERC or Junts, although both separatist parties have so far ruled that out.

Failing that, they could attempt an even more unlikely partnership with the PP, their main rivals at a national level.

If they took power, Junts and ERC would seek to lead a new pro-independence government. But some opinion surveys have forecast they would fall short of the seats required, including with the support of smaller separatist parties.

If post-election negotiations fail to produce an agreement by August, a repeat election would take place in October.

Gerard Arlandes, a businessman voting in Barcelona on Sunday said he did not have much faith in politicians.

"I don't expect anything from politicians. I vote because I am a democrat. All this is a lot of money and they do their thing," he told Reuters.

It is uncertain what the impact on Sunday's vote will be of Sanchez's surprising five-day break from office last month to weigh his possible resignation over what he said was a smear campaign directed against his family by right wing opponents.

His break "has mobilized a lot the Socialist vote" in Catalonia, said a Socialist source.

(Reporting by Joan FausAdditional reporting by Belén Carreño, Alejandra Angulo, Graham KeeleyEditing by Mike Harrison and Frances Kerry)