PFN Predicts AFC East Winner: Can Bills Hold Off Dolphins and Jets?

Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen (17) gets stopped on fourth down by the Miami Dolphins defense during the fourth quarter at Hard Rock Stadium.

The AFC East has witnessed the Buffalo Bills claim the top of the division in the last four seasons.

However, many NFL fans now believe their days of dominance are numbered following the stunning trade of All-Pro wide receiver Stefon Diggs. Meanwhile, the rest of the division reloaded their rosters. The runner-up Miami Dolphins and New York Jets were two of the more aggressive teams during the offseason in reloading their depth chart to counter the Bills.

There will be high intrigue and loads of storylines for the division this fall. As OTAs kick off, Pro Football Network’s NFL Playoff Predictor tool has tried to find the solution to this burning question: Who claims the AFC East in 2024?

Bills, Dolphins, Jets All Deadlocked for AFC East Crown

In our simulations, the Bills didn’t come away as a heavy favorite to earn the top overall seed in the AFC. However, the Dolphins and Jets each had high-end projections of home-field advantage in the conference en route to an AFC East title.

However, this doesn’t mean the Bills are projected to completely miss the postseason — or be out of the running for the AFC East title. They still projected favorably to come away with the division, even if they didn’t get a Round 1 bye.

Buffalo was predicted positively in some simulations, earning as high as the No. 2 seed while securing the division, but they were a popular choice to finish with the third-best record in the conference.

At the very least, PFN’s simulators predict a three-horse race between the Bills, Dolphins, and Jets for the AFC East crown. Meanwhile, the New England Patriots were not projected to secure the division or even qualify for the playoffs.

Are the Jets Trending Upward?

The Jets have been trending again as a possible AFC East champion — and maybe even a dark horse contender for the conference’s top overall seed.

Aaron Rodgers’ return from his torn Achilles has fueled the possibility of making an AFC East and conference title run. New York lost their QB on the first offensive series of Week 1 and wound up missing the postseason. Now, optimism reigns among Jets fans amid Rodgers’ return.

Beyond the perennial Pro Bowl quarterback returning to full strength, the Jets added high-profile pass rusher and former NFC champion Haason Reddick via a trade with the Philadelphia Eagles to bolster the defense.

The Jets are considered a potential Wild Card representative, with our simulator predicting them to earn either a first-round bye or host an AFC Wild Card matchup as the No. 2 seed.

Possible Playoff Matchups Include Division Battle

Buffalo was considered a popular choice to earn as high as the No. 3 spot in the postseason.

The Bills have been given early predictions to host the Indianapolis Colts and Cleveland Browns in the conference’s No. 3 vs. No. 6 battles. Yet, other simulations pitted the Bills and Dolphins against each other in the No. 2-No. 7 contest — with Buffalo as the host city.

New York was given two projections to earn the AFC’s second-best record and host the Browns and Colts in the postseason, but another predicted contest involved the Jets traveling to Miami as the sixth or fifth overall seed.

A Bills-Jets playoff battle was not predicted ahead of the upcoming season. The PFN simulator believes Miami/New York or Buffalo/Miami are popular playoff battle possibilities.

Are the Patriots Projected To Land the No. 1 Overall Draft Pick?

With New England written off as an AFC East contender, will this mean the Pats are predicted to pick first overall come April 2025?

The Patriots are considered a popular choice to earn the AFC’s worst record and fall to last place in the division. However, they’re not the unanimous favorite among teams in the conference to earn the top overall pick.

KEEP READING: PFN Predicts No. 1 NFL Draft Pick Team — Patriots Look Poised for Putrid 2024 Season

New England earned the most predictions alongside the Denver Broncos to secure the first overall pick of the next NFL Draft. The Tennessee Titans were behind both regarding having the most projections to land the No. 1 selection.

But with a new head coach in Jerod Mayo, an untested rookie quarterback in Drake Maye, plus a questionable roster, including at the skill-position spots on offense, New England easily gets tabbed as a team expected to trend downward this season.