Big beasts Hunt, Gove, Rees-Mogg, Mordaunt and IDS among top Tories at risk

(Photo: Getty/PA)

As many as 12 Cabinet ministers – and a host of other prominent Conservatives – face being kicked out of Parliament on 4 July unless Rishi Sunak can lead his party to an electoral miracle at the general election.

Normally around 100 seats hold the key to victory and defeat at the polls, but many more will be in play this time thanks to the political turbulence which has triggered massive swings in fortune for the main parties.

Twice as many could change hands in six weeks’ time – and that is bad news for many senior ministers facing the prospect of tactical voting by their local electors in “Blue Wall” areas to force them out of Westminster.

In addition, the phalanx of new Tory MPs elected in “Red Wall” seats in the North of England, the Midlands and North Wales in 2019 look set to lose their seats to a resurgent Labour Party which hopes its traditional supporters are finally returning home.

The biggest scalp could be Chancellor Jeremy Hunt who is standing in the newly-created Surrey seat of Godalming and Ash. Polling has put the Liberal Democrats in a narrow lead and they could succeed in ousting Mr Hunt if they can squeeze sizeable Labour support locally.

Michael Gove on Lib Dems’ hit list

i understands that the party has recently added another senior minister to its hit list, believing it has a fighting chance of achieving the 15 per cent swing needed to eject Michael Gove from nearby Surrey Heath. A poll last month found the Levelling Up Secretary was just one point ahead of the Lib Dems in the constituency he has represented for 19 years.

Penny Mordaunt, the Commons Leader, has stood for the Tory leadership twice and continues to be talked up as Mr Sunak’s possible successor. First she needs to retain her Portsmouth North seat. She will be hoping her high profile will save her: on current projections Labour is on course to achieve the 17 per cent-plus swing needed to depose her.

Another potential leadership contender, the Defence Secretary Grant Shapps is odds-on to lose to Labour in Welwyn Hatfield, which he won in 2005 and now holds by 10,955 votes. A recent survey found Labour is on course to achieve nearly twice the 10.5 point swing it needs to recapture the Hertfordshire constituency.

Victoria Prentis, the Attorney General, is vulnerable in Banbury, Oxfordshire, which has been held by the Conservatives for more than a century. Polling suggests Labour currently has a tiny lead in the Oxfordshire constituency.

Labour is also optimistic about achieving the 13.8 swing it needs to defeat the Veterans’ minister Johnny Mercer in Plymouth Moor View which he won from the party nine years ago.

Such is the depth of Tory woes that the Education Secretary, Gillian Keegan, could be in trouble in Chichester, which has been held by the Conservatives for 100 years. Although her majority was 21,490 in 2019, she faces a concerted challenge from the Lib Dems.

Alex Chalk, the Lord Chancellor and Justice Secretary, looks doomed in Cheltenham, where he has a majority of just 981 over the Lib Dems. This month the Conservatives lost all their remaining seats on Cheltenham Council, where the Lib Dems hold 36 of the 40 seats.

Polls also project that the Science Secretary, Michelle Donelan, is running second to the Lib Dems in her Melksham and Devizes seat in Wiltshire.

Two Cabinet ministers face an uphill struggle in Wales, where the number of constituencies is being cut from 40 to 32.

Simon Hart, the Chief Whip and former Welsh Secretary could finish third in the redrawn constituency Caerfyrddin (previously Carmarthen), which is being targeted by both Labour and Plaid Cymru.

The current Welsh Secretary, David TC Davies, appears to be trailing Labour in the new Monmouthshire seat.

Labour’s plan to retake the ‘Red Wall’

Labour will pour resources into the “Red Wall”, where it is anxious to win back constituencies such as all three Stoke seats, West Bromwich, Birmingham Northfield and Wolverhampton West in the West Midlands. It is aiming to regain Burnley, Leigh and Atherton and both Bury seats in the North West, along with the likes of Redcar, Keighley and Ilkley and Wakefield and Rothwell in Yorkshire.

Labour also wants to win back the four seats it lost in County Durham five years ago. The Tory chairman Richard Holden, currently MP for abolished North West Durham, has yet to announce where he plans to stand.

In the East Midlands, it has set its sights on Ashfield, held by Lee Anderson, a former Tory deputy chairman, who now sits as a Reform UK MP. Labour needs a six point swing to win the Nottinghamshire seat back from the Conservatives. It is also aiming to recapture Bolsover, once the stronghold of left-winger Dennis Skinner, where it needs a swing of just under six points.

If Labour’s strong support in London holds up, it should defeat the former Tory leader, Sir Iain Duncan Smith, in Chingford and Woodford Green, and capture Uxbridge and South Ruislip, which the Tories narrowly held on to in last year’s by-election to replace Boris Johnson.

Labour also has a good chance of beating the former Leader of the Commons, Sir Jacob Rees-Mogg, in Somerset North East and Hanham, and the Northern Ireland minister, Steve Baker, in Wycombe.

The Lib Dems look certain to win in the Surrey seat of Esher and Walton, where the former Deputy Prime Minister, Dominic Raab, and are heading for a photo-finish with Sir John Redwood in the Berkshire constituency of Wokingham, which the former Cabinet minister has held for 37 years.

They also have high hopes of winning Sheffield Hallam, once represented by the former leader, Sir Nick Clegg, back from Labour, as well as Cheadle and Hazel Grove from the Tories in the North West.

The Green Party looks likely to retain its sole seat in Brighton Pavilion, although their former leader Caroline Lucas is standing down. Their next best bet is Bristol Central which is currently held by Labour but where the Greens performed very strongly in the council elections.

SNP under pressure in Scotland

If the polls are correct, the political map of Scotland could look dramatically different in July as support for the Scottish National Party tumbles.

A YouGov last month projected that Labour, which won just one seat in 2019, would capture 28 of the 57 up for grabs this time, with the SNP down from 48 at the last election to 19.

Labour is on track to regain much of its former Central Belt heartland, including four of the six Glasgow seats, Cowdenbeath and Kirkcaldy and East Lothian, where the former Cabinet Minister Douglas Alexander needs a swing of just over two points to return to the Commons after nine years.

The Lib Dems will hope to achieve the 1.7 per cent swing to take back Mid Dunbartonshire, where their then leader Jo Swinson lost by just 149 votes to the SNP in 2019.

In Northern Ireland, the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) is defending eight seats, Sinn Fein seven, the SDLP two and the Alliance Party one.

One name which will not be on the ballot paper is Sir Jeffrey Donaldson, the former DUP leader, who will step down as the Lagan Valley MP.

He was charged in March with rape and 10 other historical sex offences, which he strongly denies.