Assessing the Chances of Each Last-Place Team to Go From Worst to First
Turnarounds in the NFL often take time, but some teams skip the waiting period entirely and vault from worst to first in the span of a calendar year. A team has completed such a turnaround in each of the last four seasons.
In 2023, it was the Texans who finished atop the AFC South. The Jaguars wore the AFC South crown in 2022 after back-to-back years with not only the worst record in the division, but the worst record in the NFL. The Bengals broke through in 2021 to win the AFC North and the Commanders — at the time, the Washington Football Team — won the NFC East in 2020.
Washington notwithstanding, young, highly drafted quarterbacks were at the heart of the last three worst-to-first teams. Joe Burrow, the No. 1 pick in 2019, returned from injury to take Cincinnati to the playoffs and Trevor Lawrence, the 2020 No. 1 overall pick, did the same in Jacksonville in his second season. C.J. Stroud, who went second in 2023, had Houston in the postseason immediately.
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Of the eight fourth-place finishers from 2023, six drafted a quarterback in the top 10 at some point over the last five years and three teams did so in the 2024 draft. That said, there are plenty other factors at play, namely strength of schedule, competition within the division and the state of the rest of the roster.
Here’s a look at each team that had the worst record in their division last season and a summary of their chances to finish first.
Cincinnati Bengals
2023 Record: 9–8
The path for the Bengals returning to the playoffs this season is simple: Keep Burrow healthy. Since he was selected first overall in 2020, Cincinnati missed the postseason both times he played 10 games and made it to at least the AFC Championship when he suited up for 16.
The Bengals went 5-5 in the games Burrow started last season. Sam Greene/The Enquirer / USA TODAY NETWORK
The front office kept the trio of Burrow, Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins together for at least one more year by exercising the franchise tag on Higgins. The Bengals also added veteran tackle Trent Brown and drafted rookie tackle Amarius Mims in the first round. On the other side of the ball, Cincinnati reunited with safety Vonn Bell and plucked safety Geno Stone away from the rival Ravens.
The Bengals are the only fourth-place finisher from 2023 that posted a winning record. And even though the AFC North might be the toughest division in the NFL, Cincinnati certainly benefits from playing a last-place schedule.
Chicago Bears
2023 Record: 7–10
The Bears are perhaps the most improved team in the league after an offseason in which they welcomed quarterback Caleb Williams, receivers Keenan Allen and Rome Odunze, safety Kevin Byard and center Coleman Shelton to the Windy City. With DJ Moore already on the roster, Chicago has assembled quite the receiver room for the No. 1 pick.
Acquiring offensive talent was clearly the priority for the Bears, who also re-signed cornerback Jaylon Johnson, one of the stars of a defense that came into its own down the stretch in 2023. Chicago is up against one of the easiest schedules in the NFL, which includes an especially forgiving start. The issue is the Bears’ competition in the NFC North — namely the Lions, but also the Packers and, to a lesser extent, the Vikings — all improved this offseason as well.
Chicago could be vastly improved, make the playoffs for the first time since 2020 and still finish third in the division. The last time the Bears vaulted from worst to first was in 2018, the year they acquired Khalil Mack.
Los Angeles Chargers
2023 Record: 5–12
It was an offseason of upheaval for the Chargers that included a coaching change and the departure of fan favorites Keenan Allen and Austin Ekeler. Fresh off a national championship at Michigan, Jim Harbaugh is returning to the pros to replace Brandon Staley. That upgrade alone should do wonders for Los Angeles, which has just one playoff appearance in four years since drafting quarterback Justin Herbert.
Jim Harbaugh can’t take the blame for the Chargers’ last-place finish in 2023, because he wasn’t there. © Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports
The Chargers left the draft with Day 1 starters at tackle and receiver in Joe Alt and Ladd McConkey, respectively, key additions to an offense that lacked impact returning starters beyond Herbert and tackle Rashawn Slater. L.A. also agreed to restructured contracts with Joey Bosa and Khalil Mack to keep its duo of star pass-rushers together for at least one more year.
Like many teams trying to make the worst-to-first jump, the Bolts enjoy an easy schedule. However, it’s been nine years since a team other than the Chiefs won the AFC West. Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid are standing in the way of Harbaugh and Herbert taking the division by storm.
Tennessee Titans
2023 Record: 6–11
The Titans are determined to see what they have with Will Levis. They added receivers Calvin Ridley and Tyler Boyd, running back Tony Pollard and center Lloyd Cushenberry III in free agency. Tennessee also drafted tackle JC Latham, marking the second straight year it used a top-10 pick on an offensive lineman. First-time head coach Brian Callahan will be tasked with getting the most out of this revamped unit after spending the past five years as the Bengals’ offensive coordinator.
The spending spree also brought defensive upgrades, including a blockbuster trade for cornerback L’Jarius Sneed, who was promptly signed to an extension. Starting opposite Sneed in the secondary will be Chidobe Awuzie, another free-agent pickup, and to make up for departures up front, the Titans drafted defensive tackle T’Vondre Sweat in the second round.
A suddenly deep division and a shockingly hard schedule for a last-place team might mean the turnaround in Tennessee takes more than a year. The AFC South was one of three divisions in 2023 that was home to three teams with winning records and the Texans only got better.
Washington Commanders
2023 Record: 4–13
It’s a new era in the nation’s capital from ownership on down. Josh Harris, who purchased the team last summer, brought in a new general manager in Adam Peters, a new coach in Dan Quinn and a new quarterback in Jayden Daniels, who the Commanders selected second overall.
Daniels, who won the Heisman Trophy in his final collegiate season, is one of many fresh faces who arrived in Washington, D.C. this offseason. Quinn brought a contingent with him from the Cowboys that included center Tyler Biadasz and edge rushers Dante Fowler Jr. and Dorance Armstrong. The Commanders also acquired linebackers Frankie Luvu and Bobby Wagner and Ekeler, a veteran running back in what is otherwise a very young offense.
Change is good given what this century has looked like for Washington, but it might take time for those draft picks, free agents and coaching changes to bear fruit, especially in a division that’s home to two of the NFC’s top teams in the Cowboys and Eagles. The Commanders don’t necessarily have a favorable schedule, either, which makes a breakthrough that much more unlikely.
Arizona Cardinals
2023 Record: 4–13
After back-to-back seasons at the bottom of the barrel in the NFC West, the Cardinals are in a better position to be more competitive come 2024. Quarterback Kyler Murray is another year removed from the ACL tear that cut his 2022 campaign short and Arizona further invested around him by drafting receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. fourth overall and signing tackle Jonah Williams in free agency.
Kyler Murray only started eight games for the Cardinals last season. © Joe Camporeale/USA TODAY Sports
The Cardinals went 3–5 with Murray last season and 1–8 without him. A full season of Murray under center with Harrison and tight end Trey McBride to throw to will elevate the offense in Arizona, but the defense, which ranked second-to-last in points allowed for the second straight season, is still an issue. That’s why the front office signed cornerback Sean Murphy-Bunting in free agency and used its next two picks after Harrison to bolster the defensive line and the secondary.
Though the Cardinals’ strength of schedule is middle of the pack, their position in a division with the reigning NFC champion 49ers and prospective playoff teams in the Rams and Seahawks hasn’t changed enough this summer to expect a drastic leap.
Carolina Panthers
2023 Record: 2–15
Justifiably, the Panthers’ offseason priority was getting help in the building for 2023 No. 1 overall pick Bryce Young. And they did just that by trading for receiver Diontae Johnson; drafting receiver Xavier Legette, running back Jonathon Brooks and tight end Ja’Tavion Sanders; and signing guard Robert Hunt.
Carolina’s offense was putrid last season and the combination of better weapons and protection for Young and a new coach in Dave Canales should foster better results. At the same time, the Panthers said goodbye to many of the difference-makers they had in place on defense, most notably pass-rusher Brian Burns, from a unit that allowed the fourth-fewest yards in the NFL.
Even though the NFC South is hardly viewed as an elite division, even after Kirk Cousins signed with the Falcons and the Buccaneers won a playoff game last year, Carolina cannot be expected to compete for its first division title in almost a decade.
New England Patriots
2023 Record: 4–13
Four years after moving on from Tom Brady, Bill Belichick is also out in New England. The legendary coach was replaced by Jerod Mayo, one of his former players, on the heels of the worst season of his career. It wasn’t a flashy offseason for the Patriots, who promoted from within to fill their coaching vacancy, stood pat and drafted quarterback Drake Maye with the third pick and re-signed key contributors on both sides of the ball.
Veteran Jacoby Brissett could start the season under center behind a suspect offensive line and with an uninspiring group of skill-position players. New England has continued to excel on defense in the post-Brady years even as its offense cratered. Perhaps Mayo can recreate some of that success on defense as Maye grows into his role as a starting quarterback in the NFL.
In spite of their fourth-place finish, the Patriots are up against one of the toughest schedules in the league. And they play in a division with three teams — Bills, Jets and Dolphins — who expect to earn playoff spots and spent many years at the bottom of the AFC East during New England’s reign.
Also see:
•
2024 NFL Schedule: The 10 Best Revenge Games
• 2024 NFL Schedule: Ranking All 32 Teams By Travel Miles
• 10 Players Due for Massive Contract Extensions
• These 2021 First-Round Picks Look to Avoid the Bust Label