What happens if the general election ends in a hung parliament?

Sir Keir Starmer is predicted to win a clear majority at the election, but a number of less clear cut outcomes are possible - UK PARLIAMENT

There are 650 seats up for grabs in the House of Commons. To secure a victory at this year’s general election, one party must win at least 326 of them.

The Labour Party under Sir Keir Starmer is projected to far outstrip this number and win a clear majority of seats when Britain goes to the polls.

But each party could fall short of the magic number that determines which leader will automatically be able to form a government. Such a result, a hung parliament, was the outcome of both the 2010 and 2017 general elections.

What are the consequences of a hung parliament?

The number of seats held by each party determines more than who will become the Prime Minister, explains leading polling expert Prof Sir John Curtice.

“Without a working majority in the House it can be almost impossible to pass any legislation, and it is very easy for an opposition party to try and bring down the government,” he says.

What are the next steps if no party gains a majority?

If there is a hung parliament then whoever is trying to form a government has three options, Prof Curtice says.

The first is to try to form a coalition with another party, as happened in 2010. It was by this arrangement that the Liberal Democrats came into government, joining forces with then Conservative leader David Cameron to oust Labour from government.

In this situation, it is the sitting Prime Minister rather than the party with the most seats that gets the first chance to form a coalition. This means that Rishi Sunak could stay on as leader if Sir Keir wins more seats but still falls short of half the house.

“What’s important here is that Brexit has made the Conservatives unpopular in parliament,” Prof Curtice says.“It’s highly unlikely that the Liberal Democrats or the SNP would be happy to form a coalition with the Conservatives, though either group could potentially say yes to an offer from Labour.”

Could one party simply form a minority government?

In reality, it is likely that Rishi Sunak would have to resign in the event of a hung parliament, though either he or Starmer could attempt to govern with the number of seats they already have, rather than strike a deal.

“That is incredibly unlikely to work in favour of the Conservatives because it basically means flying by the seat of your pants,” says Prof Curtice.

In such a situation, the first test of a minority government would be parliament’s first vote after the King’s speech, given to mark the first session of a new parliament.

“Any prime minister who wants to lead a minority government would essentially be daring the opposition to vote them down after the speech,” Prof Curtice explains.

“If this were to happen then it would be usual for that prime minister to resign.”

The third option Prof Curtice sets out is an informal “supply and confidence” arrangement, where a smaller party commits its support to a minority government in some important votes.

This was the deal that Theresa May struck with Northern Ireland’s DUP when there was a hung parliament in 2017. This allowed the Conservatives to form a minority government, but it remained difficult for the Prime Minister to get Brexit legislation through the House, leading to her eventual resignation.

How likely is a second general election if no party forms a majority?

Should all parties fail to form a government through any of the three most likely routes then this would force a second general election.

“One suspects that this would not happen,” Prof Curtice says. “In this country we tend to want to form a government quickly and avoid being left without one.”

He adds: “Financial markets tend to take a downturn when there is no clear government, which in this climate is something that politicians will want to avoid.”

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