Kilburg: Nvidia will dictate short-term market volatility this week

What's your WEX word of the day? How do you see today shaping up? Well, Frank, my wax for the day is waiting. In the words of the late great Tom Petty. You know Frank waiting is the hardest part. So we have big expectations for this Wednesday and that will dictate short term market direction. OK, so waiting's the hardest part as we wait for this report. Again, it's on Wednesday after the bell. What do you see? Are you hearing? We also need to talk to your clients. Do people want to take profits? I mean Nvidia's had an incredible run up this year. This AI trades had an incredible run up this year when it comes specifically to these big tech names. Are your clients, are you advising them just take a little bit of money off the table. It is considered, I think at this point in this moment in time, you've seen the video up over 500% from January 1st, 2023. So to rebalance and reduce a little bit exposure makes sense. I also want to utilize options because options allow us an opportunity, Frank, to put in a portfolio hedge. It's just like buying insurance. But right here right now, I do think NVIDIA has high expectations. They've given you no reason that they're not going to beat. But on the other side of the fence, Frank, not one single analyst. Has suggested accelerating on the stock. That seems a little bit too complacent for me. So I know your hedge is your pick. We're gonna get to that in just a second. But also want to talk touch on your SP500 price target, so you have it at 5300. Kind of sort of where we are right now. You're a bit higher than the median from our CNBC strategist survey. How important or how meaningful is this NVIDIA report to your price target? I mean, if we get a blowout NVIDIA report, does that change your view of the market? And what we're going to see this year on the other side, if we see something that misses expectations is that change your view. I think NVIDIA is going to be the critical component, the imperative piece of the puzzle. But my range, what I see this year 4950, Frank, we were just trading that back in April about 15 trading sessions ago. So I think it's range bound, which actually is quite healthy. I remain bullish and I think investors have the reason to remain bullish, but it is range bound in my opinion. All right, give us the 30 US elevator pitch on your downside protection. When it comes to NVIDIA, you're looking at the technicals on the triple QS. Well with the VIX under 12, the lowest close of the year, I think you have to look at the triple Q's. If you look at the top three holdings of the QQQ's, it's Microsoft, Apple, NVIDIA. Therefore, I think you want to buy that 437 put and sell that 4/20 put for protection.