URC – the state of play: Leinster’s Croke Park dreams fade as Munster unlikely to take home knockouts to Páirc uí Chaoimh

Munster were the big winners from the URC weekend and, having travelled to Scotland, Dublin and South Africa en route to their title win last season, they can retain their crown without leaving their own borders this time around.

A victory of any kind against Ulster at Thomond Park on Saturday week would be enough for Graham Rowntree’s men to top the table and guarantee a home run through the play-offs.

The top four teams are locked in, but the order will be decided in the final round.

According to tournament rules, the top seeds have home advantage through to the final, second place will host a semi-final if they progress from the quarter-finals and the top four will have home advantage in the last eight.

Despite staging a pair of successful friendlies at the Páirc uí Chaoimh, Munster have not put the Cork venue forward as a play-off at this stage. That's unlikely to change, although they may reconsider if a Munster v Leinster final is on the cards.

It’s a nice position to be in for the holders who are on a brilliant run of form after beating Edinburgh away on Friday night which put them top, although the revenue from play-off matches is distributed across the URC clubs.

Glasgow’s defeat to the Lions and Leinster’s loss to Ulster meant they stayed there on 63 points, with the Bulls now in second place on 61. Leinster and Glasgow are on 60 points, with Leo Cullen’s side ahead on points difference.

Third place would mean a return to Croke Park is now unlikely for Leinster.

The venue, where they beat Northampton in the Champions Cup semi-final, is provisionally booked in if they qualify for a home semi-final and final, but that possibility now looks remote after John Cooney's late kick on Saturday night. They'll play their home quarter-final at the Aviva Stadium.

They are the only contenders fighting on two fronts and, with everyone else taking the weekend off, they face a tricky home game against a Connacht side with an outside shot of the play-offs on Friday week – just six days after their Champions Cup final.

Glasgow have Zebre at home and will fancy their chances of winning a points race and beating Leinster into fourth.

That might just suit them, because it would put them on course for a semi-final away to Munster rather than a gruelling trip to Pretoria to face the Bulls who will expect to beat the Sharks away in the final round to secure a top two finish.

Ulster are secure in the top eight thanks to the 23-21 win, but if the Sharks beat Gloucester in Friday’s Challenge Cup final the South Africans will be guaranteed Champions Cup rugby next season.

That would mean Ulster would need another point or two from Thomond Park to ensure a top seven finish.

Saturday’s defeat to the Stormers leaves Connacht needing a bonus point win over Leinster and favours from elsewhere.

Tenth in the table, Pete Wilkins’ side are on 45 points and four behind Edinburgh, Benetton and the Lions who are all locked on 49.

Benetton play Edinburgh in Treviso on Saturday week, while the Lions take on the Stormers in Cape Town so there’s a chance a place will open up, but Connacht will need something very special at the RDS to exploit any slip ups.

Going into the final round, eleven teams can still make the play-offs with the Ospreys still retaining an outside shot.

If teams are level on points, then they’ll be separated by the number of matches won and, in case of a tie, by points difference.

The URC play-off race with one round to go*

1 – Munster, 63 pts, 12 wins, +160, Last game v Ulster (h)

2 – Bulls, 61pts, 12 wins, +194, Last game v Sharks (a)

3 – Leinster, 60pts, 12 wins, +178, Last game v Connacht (h)

4 – Glasgow, 60pts, 12 wins, +154, Last game v Zebre (h)

5 – Stormers, 54pts, 11 wins, +115, Last game v Lions (h)

6 – Ulster, 53pts, 11 wins, +33, Last game v Munster (a)

7 – Edinburgh, 49pts, 11 wins, +49, Last game v Benetton (a)]

8 – Benetton, 49pts, 10 wins, -14, Last game v Edinburgh (h)

____________

9 – Lions, 49pts, 9 wins, +133, Last game v Stormers (a)

10 – Connacht, 45pts, 9 wins, -2, Last game v Leinster (a)

11 – Ospreys, 45pts, 9 wins, -39, Last game v Cardiff (a)

*The top eight finish in the play-offs, but if Sharks win the Challenge Cup then only the top seven will qualify for next season's Champions Cup

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