Lok Sabha Polls Key For Uddhav Thackeray's Sena: The Party Split & Assembly Elections

Shiv Sena (UBT) is contesting from 21 seats in Maharashtra. (PTI File)

The Shiv Sena has seen massive changes since the 2019 Assembly elections in Maharashtra.

In 2019, Uddhav Thackeray broke the 35-year alliance with the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). In 2022, Eknath Shinde rebelled against Uddhav, dividing the Sena into two factions, and gaining control over the party name and symbol.

Uddhav’s faction, which is contesting the 2024 Lok Sabha elections as part of the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) with the Congress and Nationalist Congress Party (Sharadchandra Pawar), has candidates on 21 seats. The Shinde-led group is part of the Mahayuti, an alliance with the BJP and NCP (Ajit Pawar).

The Lok Sabha elections will act as a litmus test for Uddhav’s Sena UBT ahead of the assembly elections likely in October this year.

THE RIFT

Sena supremo Bal Thackeray got into an alliance with the BJP based on its common ideology of Hindutva. Jitendra Mhatre, originally from Jalgaon, but settled in Mumbai, said, “Before 2014, we thought we only had the Shiv Sena which fought for us. After PM Narendra Modi came to power, we realised that the BJP and Sena have similar ideologies and can help Maharashtrians.”

Thackeray’s Sena was against migrants diluting the Maharashtrian identity, parties favoring Muslim vote bank and dynastic politics. “Bal Thackeray was the upholder of Maharashtrians. He was our father, brother, son and friend. The Shiv Sena has done a lot for us. We will always stand by the party and Thackeray family,” said Vinod Kamble from Mumbai.

According to Shinde, while Uddhav capitalised on his father’s legacy to gain support in the state, he was not true to his ideals, which caused rift within the party.

Shinde has repeatedly said that Uddhav looked to further his son Aaditya’s career, failing to recognise key contributions of other loyal local leaders. Some of the disgruntled MLAs, who joined the Shinde camp, even felt that Uddhav didn’t do enough to support and protect its core Maharashtrian electorate.

THE BREAKING POINT

Many Sena leaders, who have joined the Shinde faction, said that Uddhav’s breaking of the alliance with the BJP and joining hands with the Congress and then intact NCP under Sharad Pawar to become the CM was what became the last nail.

Bal Thackeray had previously made statements strongly denouncing the possibility of any alliance between the Shiv Sena with Congress or NCP ever. Calling Pawar names, Thackeray had even claimed he would dissolve the Shiv Sena if the party ever allied with the Congress.

Calling it an “unnatural alliance”, Shinde revolted with 40 other MLAs and formed a government supporting the BJP. This was followed by Pawar’s nephew Ajit breaking away from the NCP with some MLAs to support the government.

While Shinde called it a move to honour Thackeray’s ideology, Uddhav called it an act motivated by greed.

VOTERS CONFUSED

For the voters, the Sena split has added to their confusion and options. Voters who initially supported the Shiv Sena as a party standing for Hindutva now have another outfit, the BJP. Those who looked for regional power can now pick between Sena UBT and Shinde Sena.

“We are confused as to which Sena to back. One side has the Thackeray name, but on the other is the Sena that supports Modi. We want Modi as the PM,” said Mumbaikar Ajay Deshpande.

Mala Deshmukh, a first-time voter, said, “Uddhav Thackeray seems to only be favouring his son, and he has abandoned all his ideas to just get power.” Her father, Nitin, however, vouches for the Thackeray family.

While the Modi factor could give a boost to Shinde, Uddhav can bank on the Thackeray factor.

All eyes are now on June 4, as Uddhav’s group’s performance will decide the status of his Shiv Sena, supporters and his future bargaining power in the MVA in the Assembly elections.