New York Mets at Miami Marlins odds, picks and predictions

new york mets at miami marlins odds, picks and predictions

May 4, 2024; St. Petersburg, Florida, USA; New York Mets starting pitcher Christian Scott (45) reacts at the end of the sixth inning against the Tampa Bay Rays at Tropicana Field. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement Neitzel-USA TODAY Sports

The New York Mets (20-23) and Miami Marlins (13-32) meet Friday as they swing into a 3-game NL East Series. First pitch from loanDepot park is slated for 7:10 p.m. ET. Let's analyze BetMGM Sportsbook's lines around the Mets vs. Marlins odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: 1st meeting; the Mets took the 2023 series 9-4

New York is coming of a 6-5 extra-innings win over the Philadelphia Phillies Thursday. The Mets let a 4-3 lead slip away with a Philly marker in the bottom of the 9th, but then won the contest with a 2-for-1 exchange in the 11th. The victory snapped a 3-game losing streak.

The Marlins are back at home after a 3-game series at the Detroit Tigers. Miami took the last 2 games of that series, both in shutouts. Those shutouts came on the heels of the Fish clocking a Boeing 7.25 ERA over their previous 9 games.

Mets at Marlins projected starters

RHP Christian Scott vs. LHP Jesus Luzardo

Scott (0-1, 2.84 ERA) is making his 3rd start. He has a 1.11 WHIP, 2.1 BB/9 and 10.0 K/9 in 12 2/3 IP.

  • Last outing: Loss, 6 IP, 3 ER, 6 H, 2 BB, 8 K in 4-1 loss vs. Atlanta Braves Saturday
  • The 24-rookie made his Major League debut May 4; called up after logging a 5-start 3.20 ERA, 0.70 WHIP at Triple-A
  • Has never faced the Marlins

Luzardo (0-3, 5.97 ERA) is lined up for his 7th start. He has a 1.33 WHIP, 4.0 BB/9 and 10.0 K/9 in 31 2/3 IP.

  • Last outing: Loss, 5 2/3 IP, 2 ER, 4 H, 1 BB, 8 K in 8-3 loss vs. Philadelphia Phillies Saturday
  • Career vs. Mets: 2-2, 3.55 ERA (33 IP, 13 ER), 22 H, 17 BB, 37 K in 6 starts
  • Returned from the Injured List (elbow) in his Saturday start against Philadelphia

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Mets at Marlins odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated 7:13 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline: Mets -120 (bet $120 to win $100) | Marlins +100 (bet $100 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Mets -1.5 (+140) | Marlins +1.5 (-165)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

Mets at Marlins picks and predictions

Prediction

Mets 4, Marlins 3

Moneyline

In their last 20 games against the Marlins, the Mets have gone 14-6. And New York is 3-1 in their last 4 games at Miami.

Including his 2 Major League starts, Scott has appeared in just 17 games above A-ball, so it would figure he's due for some growing pains along the way. But Scott was sharp in his last -- against a juggernaut Atlanta Braves offense -- and is deserving of some respect for his command and control.

In last year's season series, the Mets were a plus-26 in run differential. They have the better bullpen and figure to be a bit of an undervalued club at this point in mid-May.

Luzardo could find some fatigue troubles with this 2nd start back off the IL.

BACK NEW YORK (-120).

Run line/Against the spread

The Under is the lean for this game, so trying to get the Mets by with a cushion does not fit here. PASS.

Over/Under

Five of the last 6 series meetings in Miami have landed on the Under.

Luzardo's season ERA has been hurt by an unfortunate .444 batting average on balls in play. Miami's park profiles as a pitcher's yard, and these are a pair of 2nd-division offenses.

TAKE THE UNDER 7.5 (-110).

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This article originally appeared on USA Today Sportsbookwire: New York Mets at Miami Marlins odds, picks and predictions

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