Lok Sabha Elections 2024: Phalodi Satta Bazar revises BJP estimates as polls enter final leg

lok sabha elections 2024: phalodi satta bazar revises bjp estimates as polls enter final leg

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The Phalodi Satta Bazar, known for its accurate estimates of election results, has sounded a warning bell for the Bharatiya Janata Party. Contrary to its claims of ‘400 paar’ in the 543-member Lok Sabha in the ongoing elections, the Phalodi Satta Bazar now estimates BJP’s tally to settle much lower than what it had suggested at the start of the general elections.

The first four phases of elections have seen polls conclude in 379 of the 543 seats, constituting about 70 per cent of the total seats. Factoring in the dip in polling percentage seen in the four phases so far as compared to the last elections, the Phalodi Satta Bazar has revised its estimates for the BJP to a figure significantly lower than the BJP’s tally of 303 in the 2019 polls.

Prior to the fourth phase of elections, the Phalodi Satta Bazar had pegged the BJP winning 307 to 310 seats for the BJP. Now, the estimates have been revised downwards to 296-300 seats for the BJP, and 329 to 332 seats for the National Democratic Alliance.

Despite the dowanward revision of estimates, the Opposition INDIA bloc does not appear to be making significant advances with the Satta Bazar estimating 58 to 62 seats for the Congress. Even if we take the best case scenario into consideration, the Congress appears to be making a gain of 10 seats, as per the grey market predictions.

The remaining 164 seats will go to polls on May 20, May 25 and June 1 in the fifth, sixth and seventh phases of the Lok Sabha elections, respectively.

Phalodi Satta Bazar Prediction: How many seats will BJP win in states?

As per the Phalodi Satta Bazar, the BJP is likely to sweep Gujarat, winning all 26 seats in the state. Of the 29 seats in Madhya Pradesh, the BJP, as per grey market estimates is expected to win 27-28 seats. It had won 28 seats in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections.

The outcome in Rajasthan is likely to pinch the BJP the most, with the Phalodi Satta Bazar predicting 18-20 seats out of 25 seats in the state, a significant drop from its tally of 24 in 2019. Of the 21 seats in Odisha, the BJP is projected to win 11-12 seats, an improvement from its tally of 8 seats in the last elections.

The party is unlikely to see any major change in Punjab, with the Phalodi Satta Bazar predicting 2-3 seats in the state. The BJP won 2 seats in the 2019 polls. In neighbouring Haryana, the party is likely to suffer a dent with projections suggesting 5-6 seats for the party — BJP won all 10 seats in 2019.

The betting market also predicts 5-6 seats for the BJP in Telangana, marginally up from its tally of 4 of the 17 seats in 2019. The party is likely to maintain its dominance in Himachal Pradesh, with the market predicting a clean sweep for the party. A similar sweep is predicted for the BJP on the 5 seats in Uttarakhand.

Of the 11 seats in Chhattisgarh, the party is projected to win 10-11 seats. It had won 9 seats in the 2019 elections. In Jharkhand (14 seats), the BJP is projected to win 10-11 seats, in line with its tally of 11 in 2019. The party is also projected to win 6-7 seats in Delhi – it won all 7 in 2019 too. The party is also expected to gain a few seats in Tamil Nadu with 3-4 seats, as per the satta bazar. It filed to open its account in 2019.

As per the Phalodi Satta Bazar, the BJP is likely to improve its tally in West Bengal, with its estimates suggesting it could win 21-22 of the 42 seats, up from 18 seats it won in 2019. In Uttar Pradesh, the state with 80 Lok Sabha seats, the BJP may improve its 2019 tally of 63 by a seat or two — the Phalodi Satta Bazar predicts 64-65 seats for the BJP.

Phalodi Satta Bazar: Bets worth Rs 300 crore in Lok Sabha elections?

The Phalodi Satta Bazar has seen bets worth Rs 180 crore being placed so far and this figure is expected to rise to Rs 300 crore by the end of the Lok Sabha elections, a media report said, citing a senior functionary associated with the market in Phalodi. The report created a flutter in the otherwise speepy town of Rajasthan, leading to protests with those involved with the Phalodi Satta Bazar.

Silence fell over the buzzing market as it shut down for a day on Wednesday in protest against a conspiracy to malign its image. The functionaries associated with the market claimed that it was not a betting market but one where only estimates are made.

(DISCLAIMER: Gambling is illegal unless permitted by state-specific laws. Readers are advised to stay away from it. The purpose of this news item is only to present the prevailing trends in the betting market. Financial Express Online does not vouch for the factual correctness of these projections or promote or endorse betting markets in any manner.)

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