Proposing a Guardians-Pirates Trade

03/07/2024

The Cleveland Guardians need a starting pitcher and a right-handed hitting right-fielder. The Pittsburgh Pirates need young hitters and lots of them. Let’s make a deal.

Against LHP, the Guardians have a 76 wRC+ from their right-fielders, making for the 25th worst mark there in MLB. Cleveland has been trying Jhonkensy Noel and Johnathan Rodriguez for the role of lefty-mashing right-fielder, but both are young, unproven options. Guardians’ starting pitching has had well-publicized woes, ranking 29th in MLB with a 4.71 FIP.

Meanwhile, the Pirates are, again, languishing three games under .500 with a team wRC+ of 85. Of the six Pirates’ prospects given a future value grade of 50 or better by MLB pipeline, four are pitchers and two are middle-infielders at the High-A level. The Pirates need young hitters who are at the major league level or very close to it.

The Guardians have a sudden logjam of young, major league-ready hitting talent, including 1B/DH Kyle Manzardo, IF/OF Juan Brito, IF/OF Angel Martinez, OF George Valera, OF Johnathan Rodriguez, 1B/OF C.J. Kayfus, OF Chase DeLauter (pending health) and young players contributing on the major league team right now including IF Jose Tena, IF/OF Gabriel Arias, SS Brayan Rocchio and the aforementioned Noel. Overall, the team has plenty of prospect capital to offer in a trade, and will be replenishing their system with picks #1, #36 and #48 in the MLB draft on July 14th.

So, let’s figure out a trade. Allow me to begin with the easy sell. A proven veteran hitter with a 137 wRC+ against left-handers in 2024 (115 for his career), under arbitration control through 2027. In around 700 major league innings in right-field, he’s been slightly below average but playable defensively. It’s Connor Joe, folks. Joe should be easily attainable for 45-45+ FV prospect that the Pirates like and he removes the need to trust that Jhonkensy Noel can mitigate his chase and whiff rates or that Johnathan Rodriguez can learn to make enough contact and lift the ball enough to help in 2024, while not clogging the roster so that you can’t continue to get looks at one of those two on a periodic basis. Joe is 31 years old, so he’s probably not a longterm piece, but as a lefty-masher, he can have a role here for the next couple years if he performs.

The second part of this deal is a little more challenging. Mr. Dolan, Daddy Blitzer... we have been especially good Guardians’ fans. We are averaging more in home attendance than any other team in the AL Central. We are buying up City Connect gear like it’s hotcakes. We barely ever complain that we haven’t won a World Series in a number of years that would apparently make the streak an excellent candidate for President of the United States. Owners dear, would you consider making an investment to acquire a proven major league starter who is only 28 years old, who threw almost 200 innings last year and has a 3.46 FIP in almost 100 innings this year? Now, here’s the catch, you’re going to owe him around $8 million this year, and around $56 million total through 2028. But, as a guy who has given his team an average of over 150 innings in each of the past three years, he is as good a bet as any to provide his team quality production through the end of that contract. And, with the way pitching contracts are going, an average of $18.5 million per year is a great bargain for a number three starter with the chance to be a number two.

Ok, so, now that we are all agreed, it’s time to figure out what the Pirates want for Connor Joe and... Mitch Keller. With the length of contract and money owed to Keller, the amount of talented young starters on the verge of the bigs in Pittsburgh, and Pirates’ owner Bob Nutting’s known reluctance to spend money, the deal to acquire both should not be prohibitive in cost, even given the dearth of starting pitching available on the market. Finding two of the major league ready hitting prospects listed above, plus two additional lower level pieces from the Guardians’ system whom the Pirates like should be enough. If a bidding war ensues, maybe the Guardians have to offer three major league ready bats, and that’s where you rely on your 2024 draft class to help replenish the system.

Additionally, going from Pittsburgh’s catching staff’s -1 Framing Runs Above Average to Cleveland’s catching staff’s +9 Framing Runs Above Average can only help Keller excel. His healthy career groundball rate of 43.5% also plays well with Cleveland’s excellent infield defense.

Suddenly, against left-handed pitching in the fall, the Guardians could field:

1.Kwan LF

2. Joe RF

3. Ramirez 3B

4. Josh Naylor 1B

5. Fry C

6. Noel DH

7. Gimenez 2B

8. Freeman CF

9. Arias SS

Against RHP:

1.Kwan LF

2. Brennan CF

3. Ramirez 3B

4. Josh Naylor 1B

5. Fry RF

6. Gimenez 2B

7. Manzardo (I kept him in the above trade) DH

8. Bo C

9. Rocchio SS

And their rotation becomes: 1. Bibee, 2. Keller, 3. Williams, 4. Lively, 5. McKenzie/Carrasco/Allen/Nikhazy.

I think this is just enough to lift this team to real World Series contention. All it requires is a little willingness to expend a little resources in prospect and to commit a little more money than usual from the Cleveland ownership group toward a pitcher under team control into his early 30’s.

So, in other words, I hope you enjoyed this pointless thought exercise. I know I did.

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