Fact Check: The Truth Behind Claim Republicans Haven't Won the Popular Vote in 20 Years
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Claim:
The general election in the U.S. on Nov. 2, 2024, will mark exactly 20 years since a candidate for the Republican Party won the popular vote in a presidential election.
Rating:
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On July 1, 2024, X user Andrew Lawrence (@ndrew_lawrence) posted a quote from U.S. President Joe Biden followed by a claim from Lawrence about past U.S. elections. Lawrence, the deputy director of rapid response for Media Matters for America, wrote, "'The American people will decide.' Sir, the Republican Party hasn't won the popular vote in 20 years."
It's true the Republican Party had not won the popular vote in a presidential election in nearly 20 years.
'The American People Will Decide'
Lawrence sourced the quote from a line Biden delivered in a televised speech just seconds earlier. The speech related to the U.S. Supreme Court's decision made public earlier that day, ruling presidents have broad immunity from criminal prosecution.
In context, Biden said, "So, now, now the American people have to do what the Court should have been willing to do but would not. The American people have to render a judgment about Donald Trump's behavior. The American people must decide whether Donald Trump's assault on our democracy on Jan. 6 makes him unfit for public office in the highest office in the land. The American people must decide if Trump's embrace of violence to preserve his power is acceptable.
"Perhaps most importantly, the American people must decide if they want to entrust the president, once again, the presidency, to Donald Trump, now knowing he'll be even more emboldened to do whatever he pleases whenever he wants to do it."
Republicans Haven't Won Popular Vote in 20 Years
Again, Lawrence's post correctly stated that a Republican candidate for president had not won the popular vote in 20 years. In 2004, Republican incumbent George W. Bush tallied 62,040,610 individual votes against Democratic Sen. John Kerry's 59,028,444. That year, Americans held Election Day on Nov. 2, meaning Nov. 2, 2024, will mark exactly 20 years since the last time Republicans won the popular vote.
The 2008 election resulted in 69,498,516 votes for Democrat Barack Obama and 59,948,323 for Republican Sen. John McCain. Obama received fewer total votes in 2012 but still more than Sen. Mitt Romney, with counts tallied at 65,899,660 and 60,932,152, respectively.
In 2016, former Democratic Secretary of State Hillary Clinton received more votes than Republican challenger Donald Trump. Clinton earned 65,853,625 votes to Trump's 62,985,106. Even so, Trump won the election, thanks to the Electoral College system designating a specific number of votes to each of the 50 American states.
Most recently, U.S. President Joe Biden won the 2020 election over Trump, by a vote count of 81,283,098 to 74,222,958.
Sources:
"2004 | The American Presidency Project." UC Santa Barbara, https://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/statistics/elections/2004.
"2008 Presidential Popular Vote Summary For All Candidates Listed On At Least One State Ballot." FEC.gov, https://www.fec.gov/resources/cms-content/documents/tables2008.pdf.
"2016 Presidential Election Results." The New York Times, 9 Aug. 2017, https://www.nytimes.com/elections/2016/results/president.
"Election 2012: Official Results of Popular Vote." Statista, https://www.statista.com/statistics/245803/preliminary-results-of-the-popular-vote-of-the-2012-presidential-election/.
"President Biden Delivers Remarks on the Supreme Court's Immunity Ruling." YouTube, The White House, 1 July 2024, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CL1GXCOfWI8.
"Remarks by President Biden on the Supreme Court's Immunity Ruling." The White House, 2 July 2024, https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/speeches-remarks/2024/07/01/remarks-by-president-biden-on-the-supreme-courts-immunity-ruling/.
Sherman, Mark. "Supreme Court Rules Ex-Presidents Have Broad Immunity, Dimming Chance of a Pre-Election Trump Trial." The Associated Press, 1 July 2024, https://apnews.com/article/supreme-court-trump-capitol-riot-immunity-2dc0d1c2368d404adc0054151490f542.
"The 2020 Election by the Numbers." Council on Foreign Relations, https://www.cfr.org/blog/2020-election-numbers.
"United States Presidential Election of 2004 | George W. Bush vs. John Kerry, Campaign, & Results." Britannica, https://www.britannica.com/event/United-States-presidential-election-of-2004.