2024 Fantasy Baseball: Redrafting the first two rounds for the second half
2024 Fantasy Baseball: Redrafting the first two rounds for the second half
July 1 marks the technical, if unofficial, halfway point in the season. Yup, we're over the hump now.
And yet, given the peculiarities of this season, it still feels like we're waiting for things to normalize, particularly with regard to hitters.
There's been some progress on that front in recent weeks. This table shows how the league environment has played fairer for hitters since June 15 (using 2023 as our standard for fairness).
It suggests that our continued patience with high-end bats will indeed be rewarded and that not every preconception should be upended after only three months of play.
But no doubt, our attitudes toward some players have changed during that time, even at the highest end. One way to measure this is to redraft the first two rounds for the rest of the season, so that's what I've done here. Not surprisingly, the picks are skewed toward hitters since they've been the scarcer commodity so far.
Note that these rankings are for traditional Rotisserie leagues (i.e., 5x5 scoring). I address Head-to-Head points leagues further below.
| 1 |
| When offense lags league-wide, Judge's incomparable barrel rates make him a true outlier for home runs. It happened in 2022 and now appears to be happening again. |
| 2 |
| Though he's unable to pitch this year, never has Ohtani ranked higher for me than this. He's on pace for career highs across the board in what's been a bad year for offense overall. |
| 3 |
| Witt is already a standout for batting average and, of course, stolen bases, but his .588 xSLG points to even better power production moving forward. |
| 4 |
| Henderson's expected stats aren't quite on the level of Witt's, which makes me suspect he'll slow down from his 50-homer, 25-steal pace, but my gosh ... he's on a 50-homer, 25-steal pace |
| 5 |
| As expected, getting out of San Diego has helped Soto recapture his stud form. He's pacing for a career-high in homers as well as massive run and RBI totals while forming half of the most fearsome 1-2 punch in baseball. |
| 6 |
| Ramirez's Statcast page doesn't burn red like the five ahead of him here, but he's been a stud longer than any of them and has seen his numbers elevated by a stronger supporting cast this year. |
| 7 |
| The most polarizing player in Fantasy is sure to raise some ire with this ranking, but no matter where between .220 and .260 his batting average falls, his outlier stolen base total makes him a first-rounder for this format, especially since there's power to boot. |
| 8 |
| Tucker's bruised shin has lingered longer than expected, basically costing him the entire month of June. But he was in the conversation for best player in Fantasy before then, offering plus production across all five categories, and is reportedly nearing a return. |
| 9 |
| Everything is trending slightly down for Freeman in what could be the start of a gentle decline at age 34, and his two-year run as a base-stealer is over and done. But he's still a batting average standout with a premium spot in one of the most fearsome lineups in baseball. |
| 10 |
| Harper just hit the IL with a hamstring strain, which doesn't really impact his ranking here since it's of the lowest grade. He's been his usual studly self in a year when so many other high-end hitters have fallen short. |
| 11 |
| Alvarez has enjoyed his healthiest season so far, and the numbers may be a little disappointing considering. But my usual line about his Statcast page reading like Urkel's report card is as true as ever, which means a second-have surge that propels him to career bests would be entirely unsurprising. |
| 12 |
| Skubal is as much a ratios standout as Tyler Glasnow and Chris Sale, but without the obvious health concerns (though he is unproven workload-wise). He forms the dividing line between the hitters who I expect to perform like first-rounders the rest of the way and the ones who will likely fall short. |
| 13 |
| Lindor's batting average is still lagging a bit from his slow start, but he's delivered his usual power/speed numbers and could surge to the finish as the anchor of a Mets lineup that seems to have hit its stride. |
| 14 |
| Turner missed so much of the first three months with a hamstring injury that it's hard to deduce much from his numbers, but we all know the track record. The numbers are basically in line, too, apart from the home runs, and nothing in the underlying data suggests those aren't coming back. |
| 15 |
| Altuve gets bonus points for playing second base, the position that's most lacking in studs, but there isn't much to complain about in the stat line. His RBI total will pale in comparison to most early-rounders, but he's a plus everywhere else. |
| 16 |
| Devers slipped behind some flashier options in drafts this year but has continued to do yeoman's work at third base, which is a welcome development in a year when standout hitters have been harder to come by. |
| 17 |
| Wheeler was tracking toward a Cy Young season on the strength of his new splitter early on but has seen his numbers normalize over the past couple months. They're still ace-caliber numbers, of course, and as the workhorse of the Phillies staff, he should keep racking up wins. |
| 18 |
| Burnes and Wheeler are getting preferential treatment here for both their durability (which counts for even more in the second half) and their supporting casts. Pitch for pitch, they're not as overpowering as some of the pitchers left out, with Burnes slipping below a strikeout per inning this year. |
| 19 |
| Betts would likely be top-five if not for a fractured wrist that figures to sideline him through at least the end of July. So at what point does two-thirds of him exceed the whole of someone else? It depends on the caliber of the fill-in, which depends on the depth of the league. Here's where I'd be put him for standard 12-teamers. |
| 20 |
| Abrams has run hot and cold this year, making it hard to pin down the extent of his breakthrough. The bottom line is that he's optimized his swing for both average and power, hitting fewer balls on the ground and more on a line, particularly to his pull side. |
| 21 |
| For as disappointing as Rodriguez's forward-facing numbers are, everything under the hood looks the same with one exception: He isn't pulling the ball nearly as much. Much of his hard contact has gone to the wrong parts of the field, and that seems correctable, particularly for a player known to surge in the second half. |
| 22 |
| Like Rodriguez, Riley's exit velocity and plate discipline readings are in line with the rest of his career, even better in certain respects. Like Rodriguez, he began to surge at about this point last season and seems likely to do so again (it may have already started, in fact). |
| 23 |
| Lewis' home run rate dating back to last August is like something out of legend, and by Head-to-Head points per game, he rates closer to the top six than anyone in this range. But you'll want to guard against his extensive injury history, not to mention a likely leveling of the scales as he's exposed more. |
| 24 |
| That's right: two DH-only players in the first two rounds. Ozuna has become the focal point of the Braves lineup this year, continuing his return to form last year, and while his career has been one of inconsistency, the data completely supports what he's doing now. He'd rank higher if he had a position. |
| The stress reaction in his femur is an uncommon baseball injury without a clear timeline, but it's possible he misses much of the second half. |
| His BABIP issues from 2022 (another bad year for offense) have returned, and it's hard to dismiss them as a fluke considering. |
| He'd probably be the No. 1 pitcher in Fantasy if not for the feeling he's on borrowed time, being just 17 innings away from his career high. |
| He'd probably be the No. 2 pitcher in Fantasy if not for his extensive injury history, which cost him most of the previous four seasons. |
| He's earned his top-24 status so far, but you always have to be a little wary of the newcomer, particularly when his breakthrough is the sort that few saw coming (to this extent, anyway). |
| Somehow, it feels wrong to rank Marte ahead of Marcus Semien and Ozzie Albies, despite what the data shows, so I'm going to claim indecision and let it ride for now. |
For H2H points
Round 1
1. Aaron Judge, OF, NYY
2. Shohei Ohtani, DH, LAD
3. Juan Soto, OF, NYY
4. Bobby Witt, SS, KC
5. Jose Ramirez, 3B, CLE
6. Gunnar Henderson, 3B/SS, BAL
7. Kyle Tucker, OF, HOU
8. Freddie Freeman, 1B, LAD
9. Bryce Harper, 1B, PHI
10. Yordan Alvarez, OF, HOU
11. Elly De La Cruz, 3B/SS, CIN
12. Tarik Skubal, SP, DET
Round 213. Francisco Lindor, SS, NYM
14. Trea Turner, SS, PHI
15. Jose Altuve, 2B, HOU
16. Rafael Devers, 3B, BOS
17. Zack Wheeler, SP, PHI
18. Corbin Burnes, SP, BAL
19. Mookie Betts, 2B/SS/OF, LAD
20. C.J. Abrams, SS, WAS
21. Julio Rodriguez, OF, SEA
22. Austin Riley, 3B, ATL
23. Royce Lewis, 3B, MIN
24. Marcell Ozuna, DH, ATL