Nine months ago, the Wallabies were flogged by Wales. This week, they’re strong favourites ... to beat Wales

Nine months ago, the Wallabies’ World Cup campaign came to a humiliating end with a record 40-6 flogging by Wales. On one of Australian rugby’s darkest days, Wallabies fans in Lyon began streaming out long before the final hooter sounded.

Just 285 days later, the two sides will meet again in Sydney on Saturday and the Wallabies are rated short-priced favourites to beat up Wales. Yes, you read that right.

Bookmakers in Australia have Wales as $5.85 outsiders, and British odds-setters are in the same ballpark. Against a Wales side that played the world champion Springboks two weeks ago, the Wallabies, who have had less than two weeks of training under new coach Joe Schmidt, are regarded as $1.15 favourites to win the first Test at Allianz Stadium on Saturday.

“Well, we’ll take that,” Wales defence coach Mike Forshaw said about his team’s underdog status. “We’ll take that.”

Winger Rio Dyer, who came off the bench in Wales’ big win over the Wallabies, recalled it being a “special night” and was pivotal in securing his side’s spot in the playoffs. But this week?

“They’ve got the home advantage. They’re the ones who are probably the favourites at the moment,” Dyer said.

Richie Arnold during the Wallabies’ loss to Wales at the World Cup.

So what is going on? After the roaring bin fire of 2023, how on earth could the Wallabies be considered favourites to win their first game of 2024?

Given the lack of on-field evidence around Schmidt’s influence, so far, the trajectory of Wales since the World Cup and their record in Australia are the main factors.

After the World Cup, Wales bid farewell to many experienced players and, armed with a new squad, Warren Gatland’s team had a disappointing Six Nations campaign.

They failed to win a game and dropped to 10th on the world rankings, below Australia (ninth). After a 41-13 loss to the Boks in June, Gatland named a squad for the July tour with a huge number of missing stars, who have either retired, are injured or are being rested for this tour.

Joe Schmidt gives some direction at Wallabies training in Brisbane this week.

Names like Leigh Halfpenny, Ken Owens, Toby Faletau, George North, Josh Adams, Dan Biggar, Gareth Anscombe and Jac Morgan are not here. One – flying winger Louis Rees-Zammit – has even joined Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs via the NFL International Player pathway.

“That day [in Lyon], everything went right for us. It was one of those days,” Forshaw said.

“We were probably white hot then as a Wales team. Since that game, we’ve probably lost five, six hundred caps. It’s a challenge for our lads to play against the Wallabies.

“It’s a long time since Wales won over here, if my memory serves me right. It’s a different challenge playing against Australian teams in Australia.”

Wales haven’t beaten the Wallabies in Australia since a 19-16 victory at the SCG in 1969.

And with a crisis of confidence in Welsh rugby that isn’t a million miles from the one cloaking Australian rugby, the expectation of the tourists’ breaking the drought has been set at a low level.

But surely Wales can take confidence from the 40-6 win and, with a fast start, re-open some of those still-fresh wounds?

“A lot’s been said about the Wallabies in the summer [but] they’ll have parked that by now,” Forshaw said.

“I think Joe will be quite smart. They’ll be a different side. They’ll be a different animal. I think they’ll be a lot more structured. They’ll know exactly what they’re going for.

“Joe is a forensic coach and he’s probably not had his fingerprints on the job as long as he would have liked. But I’m sure he’s got enough there to make them very competitive on Saturday night.”