MLB strikeout props for 7/2: Full slate, can't wait
Los Angeles Dodgers starting pitcher Bobby Miller.
Coming off a 1-2 day in strikeout props to start the week, we're now 11-7 in our last 18 picks. Thankfully, we have a full slate of games on Tuesday night, so let's find three K prop winners.
Chris Flexen under 3.5 Ks (-120 DraftKings)
White Sox at Guardians, 6:40 p.m. ET
Flexen has never been an effective swing-and-miss pitcher as a pro. The 30-year-old ranks in the 18th percentile in strikeout rate and the 29th percentile in whiff rate, and he's gone under this line in three of his last four starts. Flexen's best avenue to strikeouts is his 27.4 percent chase rate, but the Cleveland Guardians have the third-highest chase contact rate in MLB. Cleveland also has the sixth-lowest K rate against right-handed pitching over the last month. Flexen has faced current Guardians hitters only 16 times, but he hasn't recorded a single strikeout in those matchups.
Nathan Eovaldi under 4.5 Ks (+110 FanDuel)
Padres at Rangers, 8:05 p.m. ET
This number might seem surprisingly low for a pitcher of Eovaldi's caliber, but stick with us here. The Texas Rangers starter isn't pitching well right now, as he's given up 22 hits and 13 earned runs over his last four starts. He's still one of the best starters in the league at getting opposing hitters to chase (32.8 percent), but that doesn't work against the San Diego Padres. San Diego has the lowest whiff rate and the highest chase contact rate in the league this season. That's why Eovaldi has just an 11.1 percent K rate against current Padres hitters in 45 plate appearances.
Bobby Miller under 4.5 Ks (-108 FD)
Diamondbacks at Dodgers, 10:10 p.m. ET
Miller kicked off his season with 11 strikeouts and no earned runs in 6.0 innings of work against the St. Louis Cardinals, but it's been all downhill since then. The Los Angeles Dodgers right-hander has gone under this line in four straight starts since his debut, and he lasted only 2.0 innings in his last start against the Chicago White Sox. Miller simply doesn't look right, and now he has to face an Arizona Diamondbacks lineup that has the third-lowest strikeout rate against righties over the last two weeks (17.2 percent).
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