Negotiated outcome most likely result of Russia-Ukraine war, major poll says
A total of 34% of Ukrainians currently say they trust the Ukrainian president, Volodymyr Zelenskiy. Photograph: Global Images Ukraine/Getty Images
A negotiated outcome with Russia, as opposed to outright Ukrainian military victory, is now seen as the most likely outcome in most European countries, according to a major poll of 15 countries.
Support for Ukraine’s cause remains strong across Europe despite battlefield reverses, but European voters increasingly regard arming Ukraine as necessary not to achieve a complete Ukrainian battlefield victory, but instead to strengthen Ukraine’s hand in the future negotiations with Russia.
The European Council of Foreign Relations (ECFR) thinktank polled 19,566 people in 15 countries in the first half of May 2024 – in the lead-up to the European Parliament election.
The thinktank has regularly polled on Ukraine, but it is the first time it has also polled inside Ukraine itself where it finds support for war and victory are strong, despite talk of weakening morale.
A total of 34% of Ukrainians currently say they trust the Ukrainian president, Volodymyr Zelenskiy, “a great deal”, while a further 31% trust him “quite a lot” – meaning that, by two to one, those who are keeping faith with their leader outnumber those who are not.
When asked about the most likely outcome of the war, 58% of Ukrainians foresee a Ukrainian victory, 30% say it will end in a settlement, and only 1% expect Russia to emerge victorious. But there is a majority that prefer ceding territory rather than abandoning sovereignty, defined by the right to join Nato and the EU.
Inside 14 European countries surveyed only in Estonia was there a prevailing view (38%) that Ukraine will win the war outright. Nevertheless majorities in Sweden and Poland want Europe to help Ukraine fight until all its territory is regained. Majorities in Italy, Greece and Bulgaria oppose this to the extent they think it is a bad idea to increase the supply of weapons to Ukraine. Overall Italy emerges as the largest major European power least supportive of Ukraine. But in most European countries large majorities still support sending more arms to Ukraine, even if it is to strengthen Ukraine’s negotiating hand
There is a middle group of countries such as Czech Republic, France, Germany, the Netherlands, Spain, and Switzerland, that lack a national consensus on the war and the EU’s role.In no country , even the most hawkish, is there support for sending troops to Ukraine.
A total of 69% of Ukrainians say more weapons are needed to defend itself, but this view does not turn into a disillusionment with the EU, with 75% of Ukrainians regarding the EU’s role as positive and see Ukraine’s membership as necessary to win the war.
Asked to list 10 countries according to the reliability of their support to their homeland, Ukrainians rank the UK top with 88%, saying Britain has been “very or mostly reliable”, followed by Lithiuania on 77%. Although most countries are regarded as reliable it is Lithuania and the UK that stand out as very reliable in contrast to France, Germany and even Poland.
But some Ukrainians – a third – admit they are strongly concerned that the US will strike a peace deal with Russia without involving Kyiv.
The poll shows that the French president, Emmanuel Macron, has failed to persuade the French to follow him into his personal transition towards adopting a much harder pro-Ukrainian position. One-third of France is in favour of supporting Ukraine to regain its lost territory, another third would rather push Ukraine towards negotiating a peace deal with Russia, while the final third remains on the fence.
Co-author of the survey report and chair of the Centre for Liberal Strategies, Ivan Krastev, said: “The striking thing about the state of public opinion, vis-a-vis Ukraine, is its remarkable stability – while the conflict has not frozen, in many aspects public attitudes have.”
Co-author and ECFR director, Mark Leonard, said: “Our new polling suggests that one of the key challenges for western leaders will be reconciling the conflicting positions between Europeans and Ukrainians on how the war will end. While both groups recognise the need for continued military provision, to help Ukraine push back at Russian aggression, there is a profound gulf around what constitutes a victory – and what the purpose of Europe’s support actually is.”
The polling was conducted by Datapraxis with YouGov, Norstat, Alpha Research, and Rating Group in 15 countries (Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Estonia, France, Germany, Great Britain, Greece, Italy, Poland, Portugal, the Netherlands, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, and Ukraine).