Big Ten Football 2024 Predictions

The Big Ten is college football's biggest conference as the league will expand by four teams from the West Coast - USC, UCLA, Oregon, and Washington - to become an 18-team setup in 2024. The larger footprint isn't the only thing different about the Big Ten this fall, as the league ditched divisions and six new full-time coaches are on the job.

Despite all of the changes in the Big Ten and in college football, predictions for the conference still run through a couple of traditional powers: Ohio State, Michigan, and Penn State. Oregon is the newcomer with the best chance to win the league title, while USC, Iowa, Nebraska, Wisconsin, and Rutgers headline the second tier.

Maryland, Washington, Minnesota, and Michigan State should be in the mix for a bowl this fall. UCLA, Illinois, Northwestern, Indiana, and Purdue round out the final projections and predictions for the '24 season.

How does Athlon Sports project the Big Ten for 2024? Steven Lassan predicts and ranks all 18 teams in Big Ten for this fall:

Big Ten 2024 Team Previews: Illinois | Indiana | Iowa | Maryland | Michigan

Michigan State | Minnesota | Nebraska | Northwestern | Ohio State | Oregon

Penn State | Purdue | Rutgers | UCLA | USC | Washington | Wisconsin

Big Ten Football 2024 Predictions

Ohio State RB TreVeyon Henderson © Clare Grant/The Columbus Dispatch / USA TODAY NETWORK

Big Ten Championship Prediction: Ohio State over Oregon

1. Ohio State

After losing three straight times to Michigan and watching the Wolverines celebrate the national championship last season, it was clear coach Ryan Day had one goal in mind this offseason: Do everything necessary to get Ohio State back to the top of the Big Ten. On paper: Mission accomplished.

Considering the roster talent and depth accumulated, anything other than a trip to the national championship would be considered a disappointment. The Buckeyes return nine starters off a defense that held teams to just 11.2 points a game and added safety Caleb Downs via the portal after a standout freshman season at Alabama. Downs, linemen Jack Sawyer and JT Tuimoloau and cornerback Denzel Burke are Athlon Sports All-Americans for '24. This unit could be the best defense in the nation this fall.

Although Ohio State's offense enters fall with a few concerns to address, it's hard to worry much about a group led by Day and new coordinator Chip Kelly. Kansas State transfer Will Howard is expected to edge Devin Brown, Lincoln Kienholz, and freshmen Air Noland and Julian Sayin for the starting quarterback job after a competition this fall. The skill talent is deep. Running backs Quinshon Judkins (Ole Miss transfer) and TreVeyon Henderson form the best backfield in college football, and the receiving corps is loaded once again with Emeka Egbuka, true freshman Jeremiah Smith, and Carnell Tate leading the way on the outside with Marvin Harrison Jr. off to the NFL. Four starters are back in the trenches, but this group must play better in '24.

2. Oregon

Oregon head coach Dan Lanning Ben Lonergan/The Register-Guard / USA TODAY NETWORK

Of the four new teams joining the Big Ten in 2024, Oregon is easily positioned as the best to contend this fall (and likely into the near future). Under coach Dan Lanning, the Ducks are 22-5 over the last two seasons and have reeled in elite talent on the recruiting trail and through the portal.

One of the nation's top impact transfers is expected to be new Oregon starting quarterback Dillon Gabriel. With Bo Nix off to the NFL, the former UCF/Oklahoma signal-caller will take control of the Ducks' high-powered attack, which includes a deep receiving corps headlined by two All-America receivers in Evan Stewart and Tez Johnson. The one-two punch of Jordan James and Noah Whittington at running back and three returning starters on the line round out an offense that should be among the best in college football.

Lanning's efforts in the portal should quickly restock a defense that brings back only four starters. Cornerback Jabbar Muhammad (Washington), linemen Derrick Harmon (Michigan State) and Jamaree Caldwell (Houston), and safety Kobe Savage (Kansas State) should all be impact transfers for this unit. Throw in end Jordan Burch, linebackers Jestin Jacobs and Jeffrey Bassa, along with defensive backs Tysheem Johnson and Jahlil Florence, and it's easy to see why Oregon is primed to play top-notch defense as it moves to the Big Ten.

3. Michigan

Keeping Michigan at the top of the Big Ten won't be easy for new coach Sherrone Moore. Although a strong interim stint during Jim Harbaugh's suspension showcased Moore's ability as a head coach, the Wolverines return only five starters and enter '24 with uncertainty on offense.

The strength of Moore's first team is clearly on the defensive side of the ball. Linemen Mason Graham and Kenneth Grant anchor one of the nation's top fronts, with Maryland transfer Jaishawn Barham and Ernest Hausmann leading the way at the second level. Former NFL assistant Wink Martindale takes over the play-calling duties and a couple of late transfers boosted the depth in a secondary that returns one of college football's top cornerbacks in Will Johnson.

As mentioned previously, the offense (Moore's side of the ball) enters '24 with major concerns. All five starters from the offensive line, quarterback J.J. McCarthy, running back Blake Corum, and receiver Roman Wilson have departed Ann Arbor. The quarterback battle could extend deep into fall practice, with Alex Orji the likely frontrunner after seeing limited snaps last year. Donovan Edwards is poised for a huge year as the team's No. 1 running back, while tight end Colston Loveland is an Athlon Sports first-team All-American.

4. Penn State

Penn State has been close but also unable to earn a trip to the CFB Playoff since its inception in '24. The expanded 12-team version should benefit coach James Franklin's program after it finished No. 13 or higher of the rankings five times since '16.

But for the Nittany Lions to aim higher and knock off Ohio State, Michigan, and Oregon from Big Ten supremacy, improving the offense is priority No. 1. New play-caller Andy Kotelnicki arrives after coordinating one of the Big 12's top offenses at Kansas and is tasked with jumpstarting a unit that managed only 5.1 yards per play in Big Ten action last year. Quarterback Drew Allar (25 TDs to two interceptions) has potential but also struggled in high-profile showdowns against Michigan and Ohio State. More weapons at receiver would help Allar's development, but this unit is the biggest concern for '24. Tight end Tyler Warren and Ohio State transfer Julian Fleming should be the top options on the outside. The one-two punch of Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen at running back is among the best in college football. Can Kotelnicki find ways to get Singleton and Allen even more involved?

New leadership also headlines the defense after coordinator Manny Diaz left to be the head coach at Duke. Former head coach Tom Allen (Indiana) was hired to fill Diaz's shoes and expectations will be high after Penn State ranked third and ninth nationally in fewest points allowed over the last two years. Dani Dennis-Sutton and converted linebacker Abdul Carter form one of the top defensive end pairings in the nation, while Kobe King and Tony Rojas lead the way at the second level. The Nittany Lions return two standout safeties in Jaylen Reed and Kevin Winston but must replace both starting cornerbacks from '23.

5. USC

USC QB Miller Moss Orlando Ramirez-USA TODAY Sports

After nearly making the CFB Playoff in coach Lincoln Riley's debut in 2022, the Trojans regressed in a big way to 8-5 last year. Issues along the offensive line and defense were simply too much to overcome - despite having the No. 1 overall pick in the NFL Draft in quarterback Caleb Williams.

Sticking with coordinator Alex Grinch after a disastrous defensive effort in '22 proved to be a major misstep for Riley. USC allowed 34.4 points a contest, ranked last in the Pac-12 in rush defense, surrendered too many big plays, struggled with proper angles and tackling, and gave up over six yards a snap. The good news: That was last season and new coordinator D'Anton Lynn arrives after leading UCLA's defense to a No. 2 rank in the Pac-12 in fewest points allowed. Although the Trojans need more depth and talent here, Lynn has pieces to work with. Linebackers Jamil Muhammad and Eric Gentry, defensive linemen Braylan Shelby and Bear Alexander, and defensive backs Kamari Ramsey and Akili Arnold provide optimism for improvement.

Although Riley has an outstanding track record of developing quarterbacks, Williams will be missed in '23. Miller Moss had a strong showing in the Holiday Bowl win over Louisville and is the projected starter going into the fall. If he stumbles, UNLV transfer Jayden Maiava is ready to push for the job. Receiver/all-purpose weapon Zachariah Branch and running back Woody Marks are poised for big seasons in this offense. Center Jonah Monheim is underrated, but plenty of question marks surround the entire offensive line going into '24.

6. Iowa

Despite a struggling offense and the distraction of former coordinator Brian Ferentz's contract terms, Iowa won its second Big Ten West Division title in three years and posted the program's eighth double-digit win total under coach Kirk Ferentz.

The elimination of divisions makes a return trip to Indianapolis to play for the conference title a greater challenge for Ferentz. However, Iowa's defense is good enough to carry this team into the top 25 once again, as coordinator Phil Parker returns eight starters, including All-America picks in Nick Jackson and Jay Higgins at linebacker. The Hawkeyes have a strong defensive line in place, and while the secondary will miss standout Cooper DeJean, this unit is still among the best in college football.

Finishing inside of the top four in the new 18-team Big Ten, all hinges on how Iowa's offense performs under new coordinator Tim Lester. The former Western Michigan head coach will certainly put his own stamp on things, but don't expect the Hawkeyes to stray too far from a backfield featuring Leshon Williams and Kaleb Johnson. For this unit to improve on last year's dismal performance (15.4 points a game), better play in the trenches is a must, and there's a question mark at quarterback to address. Is Cade McNamara healthy after missing most of '23 due to injury. Or will the Hawkeyes turn to Northwestern transfer Brendan Sullivan?

7. Nebraska

Nebraska head coach Matt Rhule © Dylan Widger-USA TODAY Sports

Nebraska seems poised for a breakout second season under coach Matt Rhule. Despite losing 31 turnovers and a minus-17 turnover margin, the Cornhuskers nearly went bowling (5-7) last year in Rhule's debut. After a season of bad luck with lost turnovers and close losses (five by one score), the bounces are likely to fall more in Nebraska's favor this fall.

Freshman (and five-star recruit) quarterback Dylan Raiola is slated to take control of the offense, and Rhule added impact transfers in the form of running back Dante Dowdell (Oregon) and receiver Jahmal Banks (Wake Forest). The Cornhuskers have made progress in developing the offensive line in recent years, and this unit should be a strength with three starters back, along with the arrival of transfer Micah Mazzccua from Florida.

Tony White's defense held teams to 18.3 points a game last fall and could be even better in '24. Just how good was this group last year? Only two teams - Michigan and Colorado - scored more than 24 points on Nebraska. Ty Robinson and Nash Hutmacher are back to anchor the front, while cornerback Tommi Hill and defensive back Isaac Gifford lead a secondary that finished fifth in the Big Ten in pass efficiency defense last year.

8. Wisconsin

Luke Fickell's debut at Wisconsin was a bit of a disappointment at 7-6 and improving on that mark in '24 won't be easy with a tough schedule that includes a non-conference matchup against Alabama.

A sluggish offense in Big Ten games (19.9 points a contest and 4.89 yards a snap) was primarily to blame for the seven-win campaign and question marks surround this group once again. Running back Braelon Allen is off to the NFL, but Chez Mellusi is back from injury to handle the workload. Will Pauling and Bryson Green provide a solid duo on the outside, but the Badgers need better quarterback play to take a step forward on offense. Miami transfer Tyler Van Dyke was brought in to handle the starting job, but Braedyn Locke has a year of experience in the system and is also in the mix.

The question marks for Fickell extend to the defense. The secondary should be a standout group with cornerback Ricardo Hallman and safety Hunter Wohler returning. However, the line is thin on depth and is a concern. Transfers - Tackett Curtis (USC), John Pius (William & Mary), and Leon Lowery (Syracuse) - are needed to boost the linebacker unit.

9. Rutgers

The Scarlet Knights are coming off their first winning season (7-6) since coach Greg Schiano's return to the program in 2020. And with 12 starters back, along with a schedule that misses the projected top four - Oregon, Ohio State, Penn State, and Michigan - in the Big Ten, another step forward in the win column is within reach.

Running back Kyle Monangai (1,262 rushing yards) is one of the nation's most underrated players and returns to power an offense that leaned heavily on the run last year. With four starters back, the offensive line should be a strength. But for Rutgers to jump in the Big Ten pecking order, the passing attack must improve. Minnesota transfer Athan Kaliakmanis won the quarterback battle with Gavin Wimsatt (transferred to Kentucky) in the spring and is tasked with improving an offense that completed less than 50 percent (48.3) of passes in '23.

The Scarlet Knights quietly held teams to 21.2 points a game and 4.99 yards a snap last year. With six starters back and All-Big Ten players at every level (defensive lineman Aaron Lewis, linebacker Mohamed Toure, and defensive backs Flip Dixon and Robert Longerbeam), this unit should be one of the best in the conference.

10. Washington

A year after playing for the national championship, expectations will be significantly lower for Washington in '24. New coach Jedd Fisch arrives after winning 10 games at Arizona last season, but the Huskies return only two starters and face massive turnover on both sides of the ball.

New faces highlight a revamped Washington offense. Transfers in quarterback Will Rogers (Mississippi State), running back Jonah Coleman (Arizona), and receiver Jeremiah Hunter (California) take over for an offense that averaged 36 points a game behind quarterback Michael Penix Jr. and receivers Rome Odunze and Jalen McMillan last year. All five starters up front are new for '24.

A defense that allowed 5.8 yards a snap last season is also undergoing major construction this offseason. Linebackers Carson Bruener and Alphonzo Tuputala are the lone returning standouts, but a couple of transfers - defensive linemen Isaiah Ward (Arizona) and Zach Durfree (Sioux Falls) and cornerback Ephesians Prysock (Arizona) - will make an instant impact. In addition to Prysock, the return of Kamren Fabiculanan and Elijah Jackson provide optimism and some experience in the secondary.

11. Maryland

Maryland head coach Mike Locksley Christopher Hanewinckel/USA TODAY Sports

Maryland has won eight games in back-to-back seasons but taking the next step will hard for coach Mike Locksley's team in '24.

With quarterback Taulia Tagovailoa off to the NFL, Cameron Edge, Billy Edwards Jr., and NC State transfer MJ Morris will battle for the starting job. Whichever signal-caller wins the job does have weapons to deploy, including running back Roman Hemby, tight end Preston Howard, and receivers Kaden Prather and Tai Felton. However, four new starters must emerge along the offensive line.

The Terrapins were solid on defense last year (4.86 yards a snap) and bring back a strong foundation up front. Ruben Hyppolite II is a stalwart at linebacker, and the line is anchored by end Quashon Fuller, edge rusher Donnell Brown, and tackle Jordan Phillips. Replenishing the secondary after the departures of Beau Brade, Tarheeb Still, and Ja'Quan Sheppard is coordinator Brian Williams' biggest offseason priority.

12. Minnesota

Setting aside the shortened 2020 season, the '23 campaign marked the first time Minnesota had a losing record under coach PJ Fleck since '17. Although a tough schedule is on tap, the Golden Gophers also have the pieces in place to rebound.

New Hampshire transfer Max Brosmer is an intriguing quarterback addition to boost an offense that scored only 18.8 points in Big Ten play last year. The strength of this group rests up front with four starters back, including All-American tackle Aireontae Ersery. Running back Darius Taylor is a rising star after rushing for 799 yards in six games in '23, and No. 1 receiver Daniel Jackson is back after grabbing 59 receptions.

New coordinator Corey Hetherman inherits an experienced group (eight returning starters), but there's room to improve after the Golden Gophers allowed 29.1 points and 6.03 yards a snap in Big Ten play last year. End Jah Joyner (7.5 sacks) is a rising star off the edge, while linebacker Cody Lindenberg should return to full strength after missing most of '23 due to injury. Safety Tyler Nubin is a huge loss in the secondary.

13. Michigan State

Jonathan Smith is a strong hire for Michigan State and brings a style of play from Oregon State that should fit well into the Big Ten and overall potential of this program. However, the debut season from Smith could be challenging.

Not only are the Spartans transitioning to a new staff and schemes, the personnel took a hit this offseason when standout defensive tackles Derrick Harmon and Simeon Barrow and safety Jaden Mangham transferred after spring practice. Additionally, this unit allowed 30.9 points in Big Ten play last year. Six starters are back for new coordinator Joe Rossi, and Smith took steps to address the departures and overall depth by landing 15 transfers. Sophomore linebacker Jordan Hall is a rising star to watch and the secondary returns a significant amount of experience.

A rebuilt offensive line is a major concern for Smith's offense, but quarterback Aidan Chiles followed from Oregon State and should be a breakout signal-caller in the Big Ten. The Spartans have quality skill talent in place with running backs Kay'Ron Lynch-Adams and Nathan Carter and receivers Montorie Foster Jr. and Nick Marsh and tight end Jack Velling. However, until the line stabilizes, this unit is likely to be a work in progress.

14. UCLA

UCLA RB T.J. Harden Jason Parkhurst/USA TODAY Sports

Former standout running back DeShaun Foster steps into a tough situation for a first-year coach. Although Foster has brought some renewed energy on the recruiting trail, the Bruins are transitioning to the Big Ten, a tough slate is on tap, and just nine starters are back for '24.

Former NFL assistant Eric Bieniemy takes over a UCLA offense returning quarterback Ethan Garbers and rising star running back T.J. Harden. Receivers Logan Loya and J.Michael Sturdivant headline the weapons for Garbers on the outside, while three starters return up front. There's potential with this group, but Bieniemy also has to find ways to jumpstart the passing game and find more overall production (just 5.02 yards a snap in Pac-12 contests last year).

Ikaika Malloe takes over the defensive coordinator role after D'Anton Lynn left for crosstown rival USC. Retaining defensive tackle Jay Toia after a brief entry into the portal this spring was huge for Malloe but only three of the team's top 12 tacklers from '23 are back. Edge rushers Laiatu Latu, Gabriel Murphy, and Grayson Murphy combined for 46.5 tackles for a loss and leave big shoes to fill this fall.

15. Illinois

After going 8-5 in 2022, the Fighting Illini slipped back to 5-7 last fall. Illinois did lose three Big Ten games by one score, so the path back to a bowl in '24 isn't a huge climb for coach Bret Bielema.

Both sides of the ball need attention after '23. The defense gave up 12.8 points a game in '22 but watched that total climb to 29.4 last fall. Coordinator Aaron Henry's job isn't getting any easier after first-team All-Big Ten selection Jer'Zhan Newton and Keith Randolph Jr. departed the defensive line. Transfers Dennis Briggs Jr. (Florida State), Gentle Hunt (Florida A&M), and Enyce Sledge (Auburn) will be counted upon to play major snaps this year. Seth Coleman and Gabe Jacas are a solid duo at linebacker but question marks also surround a secondary that ranked near the bottom of the Big Ten.

More optimism surrounds the offense going into '24. The line should be solid with three starters back, and quarterback Luke Altmyer is expected to take a step forward in his second year with the program. Running back Kaden Feagin (438 yards) is a rising star in the backfield. Patrick Bryant (43 catches) should be the new No. 1 receiver after Isaiah Williams departed to the NFL.

16. Northwestern

Coming off a combined 4-20 record from 2021-22 and the offseason dismissal of coach Pat Fitzgerald in July, expectations were understandably low for the Wildcats last year. However, David Braun thrived in the interim role, guiding the program to an eight-win season, which included a victory over Utah in the Las Vegas Bowl.

The interim stint was good enough for Braun to earn the full-time job and allowed him to put his stamp on the program this offseason with new coordinators on both sides of the ball. New offensive play-caller Zach Lujan has talented playmakers to work with at running back (Cam Porter) and receiver (Bryce Kirtz and A.J. Henning). However, major concerns surround the quarterback room. Can Mississippi State transfer Mike Wright edge Ryan Hilinski or Jack Lausch for the starting job?

The strength of this team in '24 should be a defense returning seven starters. Former standout linebacker Tim McGarigle will handle the coordinator role for Braun and has help from a deep defensive line and standout linebacker Xander Mueller. Considering the question marks on offense, Northwestern needs to lean heavily on its defense early in the '24 season.

17. Indiana

Indiana head coach Curt Cignetti Bobby Goddin/Herald-Times / USA TODAY NETWORK

New coach Curt Cignetti arrives after an ultra-successful 52-9 stint at James Madison from 2019-23. And in an effort to quick turn things around in Bloomington, Cignetti is importing a handful of transfers from his previous stop.

Cignetti's background and track record on offense should pay huge dividends right away for a unit that averaged only 22.2 points a game last year. Transfer Kurtis Rourke (Ohio) should man the quarterback spot, with other portal additions in running back Justice Ellison (Wake Forest), receivers Elijah Sarratt (JMU) and Myles Price (Texas Tech), and offensive lineman Nick Kidwell (JMU) expected to step into key roles right away. The Hoosiers also bring back standout receiver Donaven McCulley (48 catches in '23).

More transfers from James Madison - linemen James Carpenter and Mikail Kamara, linebackers Jailin Walker and Aiden Fisher and defensive back D'Angelo Ponds - are slated to see major roles on an Indiana defense that surrendered 33.8 points a game in Big Ten action last year.

18. Purdue

Purdue struggled to a 4-8 mark under first-year coach Ryan Walters last season, but the Boilermakers should have optimism going into '24. After navigating some significant roster turnover last fall, the two-deep goes into '24 in a better spot.

Quarterback Hudson Card (2,387 passing yards and 15 TDs) and running back Devin Mockobee return to lead the offense. A couple of impact transfers from the '23 and '24 hauls - Jahmal Edrine, CJ Smith, and Kam Brown - need to step up at receiver after the departure of Deion Burks and TJ Sheffield to the portal. Better play is needed in the trenches, but four starters are back for coordinator Graham Harrell.

Walters guided one of the nation's top defenses at Illinois in '22 and there's hope for improvement this fall for the Boilermakers after giving up 30.4 points a contest last year. Edge rusher Nic Scourton will be missed, but five starters are back, including linebacker Kydran Jenkins and safety Dillon Thieneman. Expect a couple of portal additions - linebacker CJ Madden and cornerback Nyland Green - to make an impact as well.

Steven Lassan is the senior college football writer and editor for AthlonSports.com. Follow him on Twitter, Instagram, and Facebook.

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