France's far-right inches closer to power for first time since WWII

PARIS − France took a big step Sunday toward its first far-right government since World War II after Marine Le Pen's anti-immigration and eurosceptic National Rally party made gains in the first round of a parliamentary election.

National Rally won 33.2% of the vote, according results published Monday by France’s Interior Ministry. A coalition of centre-left, greens and far-left parties known as New Popular Front came second, with 27.9%, while French President Emmanuel Macron's alliance of political centrists, called Ensemble, came in third with 20.7%.

All three will take part in a critical second round on July 7.

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Here's how the election works, it's potential impact, and why Macron called the vote less than a month before the start of the Paris Olympic Games.

France votes: How did we get here?

Macron dissolved France's National Assembly, the lower chamber of Parliament, last month and called a surprise snap election after his party was trounced by the National Rally in European Union parliamentary elections. The EU elections have no formal, direct bearing on the timing of France's domestic votes.

However, following that outcome Macron told French voters he "heard your message." He said he couldn't stand by and "let it go without a response." His response was to call the June 30 vote, to test his mandate.

Why is the far-right popular in France?

The appeal of far-right ideas and voices that promise lower immigration, increased security, "common sense" economic measures that favor the lower and middle classes, and political pushback on EU regulations that affect everything from farming practices to human rights, have been steadily growing in France for decades.

France is not alone in this. Political populists on the right and left are everywhere these days.

But in the French context, Macron is facing opposition to hot-button changes in retirement, unemployment and immigration, said Cécile Alduy, a scholar at Sciences Po, a university in Paris. Macron toughened France's immigration policies, winning approval from far-right voters but alienating left-wing ones. These reforms have led to months of labor strikes and demonstrations that have effectively accelerated his unpopularity.

France votes: Far right wins first round in election, intense horsetrading begins

Smiles and sneers

Arrogance too is a factor. Jean-Yves Camus, an expert on the far-right at the Paris-based French Institute for International and Strategic Affairs, said Macron spent years "speaking to the French in a way that most of us felt was inappropriate." He said this partly explains the surge in far-right support.

"He was too distant. He would say 'we have to make huge reforms,' for example, to pension ages. But then he would basically tell people they were too stupid to understand why. He would tells us, 'I'm going to pass this legislation whatever the cost, whatever the procedure.' And he would go around Parliament to do it."

Could Macron lose the presidency?

Macron's job is safe, unless he resigns. His term as president does not expire before 2027. But France could get a new prime minister, an appointed role and the second-highest office in the country that by convention is more concerned with domestic affairs like immigration, education and France's welfare services.

An age-old (and old age) problem: Amid French strikes, is retirement better in America?

Who's Jordan Bardella?

Jordan Bardella, president of the French far-right National Rally party, arrives at party headquarters in Paris, France, July 1, 2024. REUTERS/Benoit Tessier

If the National Rally wins enough seats in the second round, it wants to install 28-year-old Jordan Bardella as prime minster. His youth, charm and composure have impressed many in France.

"He knows how to sell himself on social networks," said Camus. "If you look at his TikTok account, he's never on there as a politician, just a 28-year-old dancing at a party, having lunch with friends. No political message. It's just, 'Look at how smart I am'; 'Look at how handsome I am.' People go, 'Wow.'"

Veronique Leclerc, 58, a retired teacher from a village near Fontainebleau, southeast of Paris, said she supports the National Rally because it's the only party that understands "the people."

"They have answers for our questions, and understand the suffering of the French people," she said.

Leclerc said concerns over inflation and security had been "met with contempt" by Macron. She said the character of many small villages and towns in France had changed. She described Bardella as a great man. "He's got a lot of class. He's intelligent. He grew up in a poor environment and he gets people."

What will happen on July 7?

There are 577 seats in France's National Assembly. In the first-round vote, 76 were elected. This means that the remaining 501 are up for grabs on July 7. To secure an absolute majority, a party needs 289 seats.

It's not currently clear whether National Rally will win enough seats to gainb an absolute majority, advance its agenda and appoint Bardella prime minister.

Macron's centrist party and the left-wing block have so far ruled out forming any kind of coalition with the National Rally − or each other. Still, if one block does, and it's not Macron's, he will be forced to appoint a prime minister belonging to an opposition party or coalition. That's described as “cohabitation” in France. It means the government could implement policies that diverge from Macron's agenda.

Is France really that divided?

France is divided over which way its politics should turn.

Thousands of leftists took to the streets of Paris and other major cities on Sunday night as the results of the first-round vote came in. Some protesters set off fireworks, smashed store fronts and set fire to barricades.

Still, an outdoor basketball court located in the Quai de Jemmapes neighborhood, in Paris' rapidly-gentrifying 10th arrondissement, may be everything that France's political scene currently is not: united.

Players on the basketball court at the "Balti zone," in central Paris, on June 27, 2024

Last week, the "Balti zone," as the court is named − after some of its users' favorite drama series, Baltimore-set "The Wire" − was filled with players who hailed from all over Paris, including many of its immigrant communities, who have become a focus of the election because of pledges by National Rally to crack down on immigration.

There were young and old. There were players who had been playing basketball for many years, closely followed their favorite French stars in the NBA, and some who had only recently started playing basketball.

Ersan Yetis, 45, a Paris-born illustrator whose grandparents emigrated from Turkey, said he's been coming to the "Balti zone" for 15 years. He's now considered one of the court's elders.

"This place isn't just a basketball court. We do more than play," he said. "It's a spirit. A community. We help each other. We try to take care of the younger kids," he said.

Yetis said he encourages those who show up at the Balti zone to vote. Turnout in Sunday's first round was its highest since a parliamentary vote in 1997, more than 60%.

"The media shows a lot of the tension in France. And some people do want to keep an old-fashioned idea of this country, where everybody has to be white and Christian. But that's not France anymore," he said.

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: France's far-right inches closer to power for first time since WWII