Big beasts and swing seats: The key constituencies to watch on election night

With less than 48 hours until polls open, thoughts are beginning to turn to election night and the major battles that are set to take place.

The Conservatives are under threat from both Labour and the Liberal Democratss as the rise of Reform UK eats into their vote share, with opinion polls putting the party on course to lose hundreds of seats.

Keir Starmer is widely expected to become the country’s next prime minister, with major Labour gains expected across the Red Wall and in Scotland.

The Liberal Democrats, meanwhile, are focusing much of their efforts on taking seats in the so-called Blue Wall of traditionally Conservative seats in the south of England.

Here are the key seats to watch out for on election night:

Cabinet members losing their seats

Multiple big names are thought to be at risk at the election, the most notable of which is Jeremy Hunt, the Chancellor, who is standing in the new constituency of Godalming and Ash.

The Liberal Democrats have been making steady gains in the area over the last few elections and between 2017 and 2019 the party cut Mr Hunt’s majority from over 21,000 to just under 9,000 in his previous seat of South West Surrey.

If he loses, he will become the first sitting Chancellor in history to lose his seat at a general election.

Several current Cabinet ministers are also at risk to Labour including Defence Secretary Grant Shapps, who has an 11,000 majority in his Welwyn Hatfield seat, and Commons Leader Penny Mordaunt, defending a 16,000 lead in Portsmouth North.

Some polls are also predicting that several other Cabinet ministers could be at risk. They include:

• Education Secretary Gillian Keegan (Chichester)
• Home Secretary James Cleverly (Braintree)
• Justice Secretary Alex Chalk (Cheltenham)
• Work and Pensions Secretary Mel Stride (Central Devon)
• Transport Secretary Mark Harper (Forest of Dean)
• Chief Whip Simon Hart (Caerfyrddin)
• Attorney General Victoria Prentis (Banbury)
• Veteran’s affairs minister Johnny Mercer (Plymouth Moor View)
• Minister for common sense Esther McVey (Tatton)

Tory big beasts facing defeat

It’s not just current Cabinet secretaries who could be ousted at the election – several senior Tory figures and former ministers are also in a precarious position.

They include Jacob Rees-Mogg, standing in North East Somerset and Hanham, who is at risk to Labour despite his near 15,000 majority in the equivalent seat at the 2019 election.

Former prime minister Liz Truss is defending an even bigger majority of 26,000 in South West Norfolk, but some polls have suggested she could be unseated by Labour.

Perhaps the most at risk is Sir Iain Duncan Smith, a former leader of the Tory Party, who last won his Chingford and Woodford Green seat with a majority of just over 1,200 amid stiff competition from Labour.

Two former home secretaries could also leave the Commons, with both Suella Braverman in Fareham and Waterlooville and Priti Patel in Witham under threat due to tactical voting.

Rishi Sunak delivers a speech in Stoke-on-Trent (Source: Getty Images)

Former PM constituencies switching hands

Former prime minister Theresa May is not standing again in this general election, but her former Maidenhead seat could be about to change hands following her departure.

Analysis by Best for Britain suggests the constituency is now a three-way marginal between the Tories, Labour and the Liberal Democrats, with around 43 per cent of voters planning to vote tactically.

Witney, the former seat of ex-PM Lord David Cameron, now the Foreign Secretary, is considered a stretch target for the Liberal Democrats who are already predicted to make gains in several other seats in Oxfordshire.

Labour winning back seats in the Red Wall

The 2019 general election was characterised by the gains the Tories made in the so-called “Red Wall” – seats in the north of England that were traditionally considered Labour strongholds.

Labour now has its eye on winning them back, and several key wins will show if they’re on track.

One of the easier wins for Labour will be Cramlington and Killingworth, which covers much of the former constituency of Blyth Valley won by the Tory candidate Ian Levy in 2019 by just over 700 votes.

Others include Great Grimsby and Cleethorpes, which the Tory’s Lia Nici won with a 7,000 majority and Scunthorpe, taken from Labour by Holly Mumby-Croft by just over 6,000 votes.

Alex Stafford is defending a 6,000 majority in Rother Valley, while former deputy Conservative Party chairman Brendan Clarke-Smith has a stronger 14,000-vote lead in Bassetlaw.

These seats are being contested by the same Tory candidates as the 2019 general election, many of which now look at risk of being unseated.

Liberal Democrat leader Sir Ed Davey arrives for a visit to the Swan at Streatley, Berkshire, while on the campaign trail (Photo: Jonathan Brady/PA Wire)

Lib Dems surging in the Blue Wall

The Liberal Democrats are currently on track to overtake the Scottish National Party (SNP) as the third-largest party in parliament, with polls predicting they could win anywhere from 40 to 70 seats.

One of the biggest gains of the night for the party will likely be Hunt’s Godalming and Ash seat, as well Cheltenham and Chichester both of which are held by Cabinet ministers.

As well as being close in Lord Cameron’s former seat of Witney, the party is also edging closer to the Tories in the new seat of Bicester and Woodstock and Didcot and Wantage, where education minister David Johnston is defending a 13,000 majority.

Henley and Thame, which includes much of the former seat of Henley once held by ex-PM Boris Johnson, is another target for the Lib Dems in the south of England.

Labour taking Scottish seats from the SNP

With support for the SNP falling in Scotland, Labour is hoping to win back many of the seats it lost to the party at past elections.

Key targets include Rutherglen, an SNP/Labour marginal across recent elections; Hamilton and Clyde Valley, where Labour needs an 8.2 per cent swing to win; and East Kilbride and Strathaven, which has been held by the SNP since 2015.

Labour is also hoping to take Na h-Eileanan an Iar, formerly called the Western Isles, while it faces a tight race in Stirling and Strathallan – both are SNP-held seats.

But it’s not just the SNP and Labour battling for Scotland – the Liberal Democrats are hoping to make gains, while several Tory seats look at risk.

The Lib Dems are fighting to win back Mid Dunbartonshire, the seat of former party leader Jo Swinson which she famously lost at the 2019 general election.

Meanwhile, nuclear minister Andrew Bowie faces losing his seat of West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine which he holds with a majority of just over 800 votes.

Sir Keir Starmer at Shoulder of Mutton pub in Little Horwood, Buckinghamshire (Photo: Stefan Rousseau/PA Wire)

Green Party expanding its Commons cohort

The Green Party made history in 2010 by becoming her party’s first MP in the coastal seat of Brighton Pavillion. She is not standing at this election, with former party co-leader Sian Berry contesting the seat instead.

There is a chance she may not be alone in the Commons after the election, as the Greens have their eye on several seats including Bristol Central, a Labour-held seat which is being contested by the party’s current co-leader Carla Denyer.

They are also coming close in the Tory-held seats of Waveney Valley, where the party’s other co-leader Adrian Ramsay is standing, and North Herefordshire.

Nigel Farage and Reform gaining seats in parliament

Nigel Farage surprised many when he announced midway through the election campaign that he was taking over from Richard Tice as the leader of Reform UK and would be the party’s candidate in Clacton.

The seat is well-known for being the only constituency to have ever elected a UKIP MP after Douglas Carswell won a 2014 by-election in the seat after he defected from the Conservatives.

Reform UK is now confident the area’s pro-Brexit credentials will give Mr Farage a seat in parliament on his eighth attempt.

Some polls also predict that Lee Anderson, a former Tory MP who defected to Reform UK will retain his Ashfield seat and that the party could defeat Conservative Party chairman Richard Holden in Basildon and Billericay.