The Big Three era is ending but a US men’s major seems a long way off
Ben Shelton has shown glimpses of brilliance but is yet to show he can become a consistent threat in majors. Photograph: Quality Sport Images/Getty Images
“We have to hate our immediate predecessors to get free of their authority.” DH Lawrence
It seemed as if this day would never come. We thought that the seemingly immortal trio known as the Big Three would somehow play for eternity, thrilling their rabid fan bases while destroying the hopes of succeeding generations of players. But now that Novak Djokovic is struggling with an injury and his hopes of winning another grand slam before his peerless career concludes is increasingly unlikely, we can assume that the two-decade reign of Roger Federer, Rafael Nadal and Djokovic is almost over.
But it sure as hell took a while.
The Google/Oxford dictionary defines a generation as “all of the people born and living at about the same time, regarded collectively.” When speaking of familial generations, it usually refers to 20-30 years. But in tennis, a generation lasts about five to seven years, if that.
Consider the fact that for so many years those who grew up in the 1970s and early 1980s during the sport’s peak of popularity in the United States – when US players were dominant amongst both the men and women, with Jimmy Connors, John McEnroe and Chris Evert leading the way – bemoaned the fact that in the ensuing years the sport wasn’t the same anymore, that nothing could compare to the rivalries that developed among Connors, Björn Borg, and McEnroe (one could call them the first Big Three of the Open era). Yet Borg and McEnroe met in grand slam finals in only two calendar years (1980-81). And Connors and Borg only contested four grand slam championship matches, while Connors and McEnroe just twice played for a grand slam title. That’s 10 total grand slam finals contests. Compare that with Federer, Nadal and Djokovic who have played each other in a stunning 23 grand slam finals – not to mention so many semi-final clashes. Dynasty is a more apt moniker to describe the trio.
Dating the start of the Big Three dynasty to when Nadal joined the fray and won his first slam at Roland Garros in 2005, marking the point when Federer finally had legitimate competition (Djokovic would have to wait until 2008 to claim his first major) the numbers are jaw dropping. Out of 75 majors from Nadal’s maiden French triumph through the 2023 US Open, the big three won 63 out of 75 grand slams. Never before in the modern history of the sport has there been such dominance. Andy Murray won three, as did Stan Wawrinka. Carlos Alcaraz nabbed two (and added a third at this year’s French Open). Juan Martín del Potro, Dominic Thiem, Daniil Medvedev and Marin Cilic one each. That’s it.
For most of the Open era in the men’s game, a challenger would rise up in youthful arrogance – and sometimes with a bit of the hate that DH Lawrence referred to – seize control of a rivalry and, with it, the honor of becoming the top ranked player.
With the Big Three the generational confrontation never happened. Federer, Nadal and Djokovic (when he’s ready) are each exiting the sport without any of the younger players proving that they were their betters. Like a ruthless army, they took no prisoners and left a heap of casualties in their wake. They’ve lapped several generations of the sport, as this brief listing of the players who were touted for grand slam glory but who toiled in futility against the Big Three attests: Grigor Dimitrov, age 33, unfairly nicknamed “Baby Fed”; Milos Raonic (33); Alexander Zverev (27); Stefanos Tsitsipas (25). To put it in starker terms only two men born in the 1990s – Thiem and Medvedev – have won a major.
And then there are the American men. So much has been written – by myself and other tennis scribes – about the agonizing streak that has burdened each successive generation of young American male players; there hasn’t been an American man to lift a major since Andy Roddick’s win at the US Open in 2003. It’s been 21 years now, with no signs of abating.
On the other hand, American women have never faced such a deficit. Except for a few outlying periods, there’s been a relatively uninterrupted run of American women at the top of the sport in the Open era, from Billie Jean King to Evert to Tracy Austin to Lindsay Davenport to the Williams sisters and now Coco Gauff.
John Isner’s lethal serve seemed as if it would deliver a slam but he reached on one major semi-final, at Wimbledon in 2018, which he lost. Mardy Fish had a couple of years where his all-court talent brought some big wins but he also fell short. Tommy Paul, Taylor Fritz, and Frances Tiafoe appeared to have been in prime position as the Big Three were fading out, but Paul is now 27 and the latter two are 26, and are at risk of being eclipsed by younger players. So, at the moment, this leaves two players to carry the immense burden of being the next American men’s hope: 14th ranked southpaw Ben Shelton and the supremely talented 20th ranked Sebastian Korda are the most likely to claim a major. But, even for them, they will be playing catchup as there are clearly now two players who look to be the dominant forces in the game for the next several years.
Carlos Alcaraz, 21, and Jannik Sinner, 22, have begun to tighten their hold on the top of the sport, as they’ve accounted for three of the last four majors. They are extraordinarily talented players who also were born at the right time. Raonic and Dimitrov and Zverev and all the other great players that weren’t able to break through must be wishing that they had been born a few years later, with the luxury of avoiding the Big Three at their best.
American fans can hope that maybe in five or 10 years’ time we will speak with reverence of how the Big Four of Alcaraz, Sinner, Korda and Shelton carried on the great tradition of rivalries past. One can dream. For fans of US men’s tennis, that’s all they’ve got right now.