Cincinnati Reds at New York Yankees odds, picks and predictions

02/07/2024

Jun 30, 2024; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; New York Yankees left fielder Alex Verdugo (24) and right fielder Juan Soto (22) celebrate the win against the Toronto Blue Jays at the end of the ninth inning at Rogers Centre. Mandatory Credit: Nick Turchiaro-USA TODAY Sports

The Cincinnati Reds (39-45) visit the New York Yankees (54-32) for the Monday opener of a 3-game interleague set in the Bronx. The opening pitch at Yankee Stadium is slated for 7:05 p.m. ET. Let's analyze FanDuel Sportsbook's lines around the Reds vs. Yankeesodds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: First meeting; Yankees swept Cincinnati 3-0 last season

The Reds are coming off a 4-game split at the St. Louis Cardinals Thursday through Sunday. Cincinnati was shut out Friday and Sunday and has scored 1 run or fewer in 6 of its last 15 games. The Reds are 5-10 over that span.

New York heads into this series with a similar resume over recent weeks. The Yankees split 4 games at the Toronto Blue Jays over the weekend. They are 4-10 since June 15.

Reds at Yankees projected starters

RHP Graham Ashcraft vs. RHP Luis Gil

Ashcraft (4-4, 5.45 ERA) is making his 14th start. He owns a 1.49 WHIP, 2.9 BB/9 and 6.9 K/9 in 67 2/3 IP.

Last outing: Loss, 5 1/3 IP, 6 ER, 9 H, 1 BB, 3 K in 6-1 home defeat vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Wednesday
Career vs. Yankees: 0-0, 5.40 ERA (5 IP, 3 ER), 7 H, 3 BB, 3 K in 1 start, a 4-3 road win July 12, 2022
Logged 3.63 ERA over his 1st 6 starts this season; owns 5.92 ERA since

Gil (9-3, 3.15 ERA) makes his 17th start. The rookie has a 1.12 WHIP, 4.7 BB/9 and 10.4 K/9 in 85 2/3 IP.

Last outing: Loss, 4 1/3 IP, 5 ER, 4 H, 4 BB, 2 K in 12-2 setback at New York Mets Wednesday
Has allowed 12 runs over his last 5 2/3 IP
Never faced Reds before

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Reds at Yankees odds

Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Monday at 9:30 p.m. ET.

Moneyline: Reds +168 (bet $100 to win $168) | Yankees -200 (bet $200 to win $100)
Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Reds +1.5 (-125) | Yankees -1.5 (+104)
Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: +100 | U: -122)

Reds at Yankees picks and predictions

Prediction

Reds 5, Yankees 4

Moneyline

New York has been outscored 24-10 in losing each of its last 3 series openers.

Ashcraft gets a decent number of ground balls but has been hurt by a high rate of fly balls leaving the yard (15.3%). He has also pitched through the increased traffic of a .316 batting average on balls in play.

Gil has been terrific this season but has been a profitable fade candidate of late because he's overvalued by his surface stats and may be running into some innings-ramp fatigue.

The Reds have underplayed their 4.26 runs per game and 4.08 RPG allowed (a 6-15 mark in 1-run games hasn't helped). Figure Cincy as more of a .500 club which is deserving of more of a chance in this matchup.

BACK THE REDS (+168).

Run line/Against the spread

A loose opener with an Over lean is the prognosis, and that does not set up for a Reds-plus-a-cushion action. PASS.

Over/Under

New York has played in 6 straight Overs. The Yankees are in a team pitching slump stretching from the rotation through the bullpen. They've logged a 6.99 ERA and 1.66 WHIP since June 15.

There is some lean toward higher overall scores for both clubs in the near term. The price on the upside here is attractive enough to warrant a partial-unit play on the OVER 8.5 (+100).

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This article originally appeared on USA Today Sportsbookwire: Cincinnati Reds at New York Yankees odds, picks and predictions