Why Grant Shapps could be facing his Portillo moment

The sun is beating down in Hertfordshire‘s leafy Welwyn Garden City, where Labour‘s Andrew Lewin is on the campaign trail in his quest to unseat Defence Secretary Grant Shapps.

“I’ve not made my mind up yet but I know it won’t be Grant Shapps,” says an older woman called Jane behind one of the suburban doors he knocks on. She was previously a Lib Dem voter so Lewin, who according to the 2019 vote share is the best placed to defeat Shapps in Welwyn Hatfield, begins setting out his stall.

He tells her he was born at the local hospital and lives in the constituency with his wife and two sons, before referring to this year’s local elections – when Labour was just 27 votes short of running Welwyn Hatfield Council without Lib Dem support – as a demonstration of how close the vote on Thursday may be.

A sharp cynicism about politics is evident on the doorstep. One clearly frustrated elderly man, who watched the BBC debate between Keir Starmer and Rishi Sunak the night before, frowns and tells the Labour candidate “he doesn’t trust either of them”.

Despite national polls suggesting a Labour landslide win, the numbers suggest Lewin ought to have a mountain to climb in Welwyn Hatfield. Shapps has held the seat since 2005, after coming close at the height of Tony Blair’s powers in 2001, and was returned with a 10,955 majority in 2019.

It has a younger age profile than the national average, with many residents commuting to London for work, narrowly backed Leave in 2016, and is served by a relatively new hospital (the New QEII officially replaced the 60s Queen Elizabeth II Hospital in 2015), and the University of Hertfordshire, based in Hatfield.

Welwyn Garden City, which like it’s neighbouring Hatfield was designated a new town by Clement Attlee’s government in the wake of the Second World War, has a “strong sense of identity”, says Lewin.

But soaring NHS waiting lists, the cost of living crisis and the steady stream of headlines about government turmoil and sleaze in government has hardened attitudes, he admits.

“I think we have to combat that by being visible,” he says. “I’ve been out on the doorstep every single day of this general election campaign with a brilliant team of volunteers.

Andrew Lewin, Labour candifate for Welwyn Hatfield, out campaigning with volunteeers (Photo: Supplied)

“And by and large when you meet people on the doorstep, yes, you hear there’s a distrust our politicians, but they value the fact we are making the effort to come to them and to listen.

“Conversation by conversation, that’s how I think we can start to rebuild trust. But I understand how they feel after 14 years of the Conservatives.”

Polling suggests local opinion is on Lewin’s side with MRP seat by seat surveys, and the bookies, unanimous in predicting a Labour win in Welwyn Hatfield on Thursday. Shapps could be one of several Tory big beasts facing their own “Portillo moment” on Thursday.

But sources close to the Defence Secretary insist the race is competitive and they believe, contrary to the dire national picture for the Conservatives, that he can survive the general election.

Shapps is running a highly personal campaign, leaning on his years of experience at the heart of government. His role leading the Ministry of Defence has involved bolstering support for Ukraine, something viewed positively amid Reform UK’s Nigel Farage claime Russia was provoked into the conflict.

And he is incorporating hyperlocal messaging, vowing to scrap a cycle lane which has exacerbated traffic issues and making the most of complaints that the council is failing to keep up its grass-cutting commitment.

However Shapps pulled out of the only hustings due to take place, at the university.

“He’s running away from his national record because he’s not proud of it,” says Lewin, who was previously a communications professional for the social housing provider Clarion.

“What I tend to remind people when they ask me about Grant Shapps, is that this is the man who sat around the Cabinet table with Boris Johnson. So, if people believe the country is has been going in the wrong direction, he’s been one of the people behind the steering wheel.”

Labour’s offer on childcare and NHS reform “give people a sense of optimism”, argues Lewin.

“Average waiting times here in the winter were even worse than the national average,” he says. “People are saying to me that something has to change. I met a man a couple of weeks ago who has been waiting 80 weeks for an appointment.”

Meanwhile Shapps’ posters have repeatedly been targeted by vandals, with Hertfordshire Police making an arrest last week.

The Defence Secretary was not available for an interview with i. But when asked why he was not at the hustings and how the national campaigning was having an impact locally, a statement from Shapps was provided.

Grant Shapps, campaigning with Conservative volunteers in Welwyn Garden City (Photo: Supplied)

“We have obviously seen the polls and it’s always difficult for a party after a long term in government,” it reads.

“But I really feel there is a job for us to do both nationally and here in Welwyn Hatfield.

“Whether it’s representing constituents on local issues or putting forward good Conservative views nationally, I believe it’s important Tories are re-elected.”

Shapps’ national profile does not seem to impress many constituents in the conversations i witnessed, and some seemed unaware that their long-serving MP was a Cabinet minister at all.

But with the general election just days away, it was surprising how many people in Welwyn City centre did not have a fixed view on how they would vote.

Maria Theo and Miles Robertson. Ms Theo said: ‘I hear the candidates talking about the problems but I don’t hear a plan’ (Photo: Supplied)

Maria Theo, who works in the not-for-profit sector, was out with her partner, mechanical engineer Miles Robertson, walking their Yorkshire terrier.

“I just want things to get done,” she said. “We know that services like the NHS and education need more funding. I hear the candidates talking about the problems but I don’t hear a plan.

“I think some people are beginning to feel anxiety and scared that the parties don’t really know what to do.”

Mr Roberston said he would be backing Labour: “It’s primarily tactical. I would vote for anyone to get the Tories out. I’ve had enough of them and I think they have run out of ideas, so maybe Labour is worth a try.”

Angela Williams: ‘I think I am going to go for Labour’ (Photo Supplied)

Angela Williams, a retired legal secretary, also favoured a change. “I think I am going to go for Labour,” she told i. “I care about the state of our health service. I must admit that when I dislocated my shoulder, I did not have to wait for treatment at the QE2 but if the NHS is better then it’s better for everyone.”

Although she has voted for “lovely man” Shapps in the past, she was now paying £20 income tax on her pension due to threshold changes. “I’m not complaining but I would like the government to reduce tax on pensions,” she said.

Antony Piñon, managing director of a construction company, had resolved to vote Labour but is doubting his choice.

Antony Piñon (Photo: Supplied)

“I was leaning toward Starmer originally but now I’m not so sure. Could change really be any better?” he said.

He said that Covid, Brexit and the war in Ukraine has understandably meant higher taxes, but he felt no party was being honest with voters about the economic picture.

“I think they would have more chance of me voting for them if they just said: we have to put some taxes up.”