Future housing demand dependant on migration levels, new report says

File photo of housing in rural village

IRELAND’S HOUSING NEEDS will be dictated by how much migration there is to and from the country in the near future.

That is according to a report from the Economic and Social Research Institute, which gives scenarios of the country’s supply needs between now and 2030.

Depending on household sizes, a baseline population scenario would see 38,000 to 50,000 new houses needed every year over the next six years.

However, this range could be as much as 41,000 to 53,000 when high migration is factored in.

In a low migration scenario, the estimates range from 35,000 to 47,000 per year.

Paul Egan, an author of the report and a Research Officer at the ESRI, said projections of structural housing demand are “sensitive to assumptions”.

“Owing to the uncertainty in any projection exercise, the research considers a range of assumptions,” he said.

“It should also be noted that all scenarios relate to future demographic housing demand and do not factor in current pent-up demand.”

In March, then-Taoiseach Leo Varadkar said that increasing the housing targets to 50,000 per year is not achievable this year or next. The target currently sits at 33,000 homes to be delivered per year.

The government fell 2,680 homes shy of their social and affordable housing targets for last year.

Meanwhile, in the year to April 2024, around 141,600 people immigrated to Ireland, while 64,00 left. This leaves net migration at an estimated 77,600.

Under the European Union’s rules, citizens have freedom of movement between member states, and can live in another EU country for up to three months without restriction. This is increased to six months if they are looking for a job.

European citizens can also access services such as healthcare in other member states.

Most people outside of the EU who come to Ireland apply for an immigration permission to work, live or study here.

Around 29,600 Irish citizens left Ireland to live abroad last year, and around 30,500 returned.

Between 2022 and 2030, the population is expected to grow by around 516,000, the equivalent 1.3% per year.

In the medium term, the ESRI’s baseline scenario allows for a population increase of 933,000 between 2022 and 2040, resulting in a total population of over 6.1 million people by the end of the period.

This implies significant overall population growth of 1% on an annual average basis.

In a high international migration scenario, the population grows by an average of 1.2% per year, reaching 6.3 million by 2040.

The ESRI says that, while population growth is anticipated across the country, the Eastern and Midlands regions are expected to see comparatively higher population growth, concentrated in Dublin and the Mid-East.

The Northern and Western, and Southern regions are anticipated to see comparatively lower growth.