Red-hot Astros remind Blue Jays how quickly fortunes can change

TORONTO — The usual pomp and circumstance ushered in this latest Canada Day for the Toronto Blue Jays. There was a giant flag on the field, maple leafs around the mound for the festivities, elderly veterans honoured for their service and, in a nice touch, new Canadian Baseball Hall of Famer Ashley Stephenson, a coach with advanced-A Vancouver, throwing out the first pitch to Jack Graney Award winner Buck Martinez.

Under unblemished blue skies on an ideal 25 C afternoon, it really felt like a springboard into summer.

Within the baseball industry, of course, July 1 is also an unofficial springboard into trade deadline season, which this season hits on July 30. The July 14-16 draft arrives first and will be the primary focus of front offices until the picking is done, but teams are well down the road sussing out the intentions of their rivals and the direction borderline clubs plan to take, the Blue Jays prime among them, should be set by then.

At 38-46 after a 3-0 loss to the Houston Astros (43-41) in the opener of a four-game set, the Blue Jays need the type of streak their American League West opponents are on right now, with 10 wins in 11 outings, to avert a looming selloff of their expiring contracts.

Fates can change quickly in a three-wild-card world. On June 18, when the Blue Jays at 35-38 were two games ahead of the Astros (then 33-40, now 43-41) in the wild-card standings, Houston’s playoff probability hit a season-low 29.3 per cent, but has since surged up to 57.6 per cent.

Over that same span, the Blue Jays’ odds have dipped from 12.8 to 3.3 per cent, as they’ve spun their wheels, but the way the Astros have changed their fortunes is an example for them to emulate.

Toronto Blue Jays shortstop Bo Bichette (11) celebrates his solo home run against the Detroit Tigers with teammate Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (27)

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“Absolutely,” said manager John Schneider. “They have good players and we do too. (Kyle) Tucker, (Jose) Altuve, (Alex) Bregman, (Yordan) Alvarez, some contributions from Chas (McCormick), (Yainer) Diaz, they kind of all got going at the same time. We’ve struggled to do that with our guys at the same time. That’s exactly what we’re looking for, you reel off what they’ve done. And you need good pitching every day and you need a good bullpen every day. And they’ve done a good job of that.”

Monday’s loss, before a paid attendance of 39,265, represented another missed opportunity to begin building a run.

Yariel Rodriguez, making a Canada Day start that carried a little extra meaning to him, set a new personal best with 6.2 innings, allowing only two hits, one of them Jeremy Pena’s go-ahead solo shot in the fifth, while striking out six during an outing he controlled from start to finish.

“I understood it’s a huge day for the fans, Canada Day, and I just wanted to just go out there and do the best I could,” Rodriguez, who waved to the crowd as he walked off the field, said through interpreter Hector Lebron. “They’re a very aggressive team, obviously. So it was more locating my pitches, being aggressive, attack the strike zone. That was part of the plan and we got quick outs.”

But all too familiarly for the Blue Jays, they couldn’t capitalize on his gem, squandering a bases-loaded, one-out opportunity in the second against the emerging Hunter Brown, as Ernie Clement popped out and Kevin Kiermaier struck out to end the frame.

Only two Blue Jays reached base from then through the seventh before they again loaded the bases with one out in the eighth against Bryan Abreu. This time, George Springer ripped a liner right at Bregman at third base for the second out before Daulton Varsho grounded out to second to end that threat.

That proved doubly costly in the ninth, when Bregman singled and an out later Alvarez homered to make it a 3-0 game, lowering the leverage as Josh Hader closed out the bottom half, surrendering a solo shot to Clement that was too little, too late.

“You’ve got to take advantage of spots that we had,” lamented Schneider.

Neither Clement nor Kiermaier was supposed to be in the lineup. Clement was added when Vladimir Guerrero Jr., feeling the effects of the Gerrit Cole fastball that hit the ring and pinky fingers on his right hand Sunday, was scratched. Kiermaier was inserted when Isiah Kiner-Falefa tweaked something in his left knee stretching before the game.

Kiner-Falefa left for an MRI during the game and the Blue Jays were awaiting the results, the status of perhaps their steadiest performer all season hanging in the balance.

“Really popped up out of nowhere,” said Schneider.

Guerrero, meanwhile, couldn’t comfortably grip a bat before the game leading to his removal from the lineup. He wasn’t available to pinch-hit late when one swing might have changed things.

“I hope (Tuesday) it’s going to be good,” said Guerrero, who during the game was named the American League’s player of the week after he hit four homers, five doubles and had 17 RBIs in six games.

The Blue Jays can ill-afford to lose either if they’re to start the type of stretch the Astros are on right now, the type of stretch they need to prevent the type of present-for-future deadline that increasingly seems inevitable.

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