Run-up To Sungai Bakap By-Election: PH, PN wrestle on local issues, but Umno votes an unknown

This article first appeared in The Edge Malaysia Weekly on July 1, 2024 - July 7, 2024

FRESH from a win in the Kuala Kubu Bharu by-election in May, Pakatan Harapan (PH) is seeking to ride that momentum to reclaim the Sungai Bakap, Penang, state assembly seat in the by-election on July 6.

PH — that is its lynchpin, Parti Keadilan Rakyat (PKR) — held the seat for three terms since 2008, before it was captured by Perikatan Nasional (PN) in the state election in August last year. In that bout, PN defeated PH with a majority of 1,563 votes, indicating that this showdown will remain a close fight.

PN made significant inroads in Penang during the state polls, gaining eight seats from PH for a total of 11 seats to become the main opposition in the state assembly. PH was down to 27 seats from 37 (including two from Bersatu) in 2018. Barisan Nasional (BN) won two seats, giving the unity government 29 seats to maintain a two-thirds majority in the state assembly of 40 seats.

Incumbency has proven to be a big advantage. In the seven by-elections held so far since the 15th general election (GE15) in 2022, all incumbents have managed to retain their seats.

With much at stake, PH has had to be extra savvy in its choice of candidate. It has named Dr Joohari Ariffin, 60, for the joust, banking on his academic pedigree. Joohari earned a PhD from Universiti Sains Malaysia (USM) in 2014, majoring in management and education leadership, and is the former director of the northern branch of Institut Aminuddin Baki.

“Of course I am under pressure, because the expectation [from party leadership] is very high. We are looking to win [in a seat] where we have lost before, that is really stressful,” Joohari said after filing his nomination papers on June 22.

In the opposite corner is the PN candidate, who has with him the momentum of the green wave that lifted his coalition’s performance in the last state election. Abidin Ismail, 56, is the vice-chair of PAS Nibong Tebal, the right hand man to the late Nor Zamri Latiff, whose death from stomach inflammation on May 24 has triggered this by-election. With this profile, Abidin’s political experience may prove to be an advantage over Joohari, who is a political newbie.

Both coalitions have chosen to field homegrown candidates, seeking to base their voter appeal on their community experience and local roots, in view of the narrow majority in the last state election.

“All politics is local, and it might come down to which candidate people think can serve the community better,” Institute for Democracy and Economic Affairs (IDEAS) senior manager for Advocacy and Events Aira Azhari tells The Edge. “After all, the nature of an ADUN’s work is local.”

Water woes top the list of local issues 

Long-standing water supply problems plaguing residents of Sungai Bakap have become a focal point for campaigning by both contenders for the seat. According to local voters who spoke to The Edge, water supply disruptions, particularly in the Mukim 5 sub-district, have been a persistent issue for the past six years.

Thousands of residents in Mukim 5 have been affected by the inconsistent water supply since 2018, which they said would be aggravated as major festivals approach. Susilawati, 38, a homemaker living in Taman Widuri, a residential area in Mukim 5, told The Edge how she had to cancel all advance orders for her roti jala home business during the last Hari Raya celebrations due to a water shortage.

“I had already spent money to buy the ingredients, but I couldn’t fulfil the orders because there was no water. We had to ration our water usage for only essential things like bathing and cooking,” she said.

The water problems in this constituency stem from its reliance on Sungai Muda, which provides 80% of Penang’s water supply. Sungai Muda is in northern Seberang Perai, whereas Sungai Bakap is situated at the southern fringe of Penang, near the border with Perak. During peak usage hours, most of the water goes to areas around Sungai Muda, leading to a significant drop in water pressure for Sungai Bakap.

The late assemblyman Nor Zamri was said to be the first representative to bring up the issue in the state assembly, and PN candidate Abidin has vowed to continue to champion this issue for the people of Mukim 5. “This issue was championed by the late assemblyman Nor Zamri Latiff. I will take on from there. I will push for the authorities to work on a solution,” Abidin said.

Leading up to this by-election, Kedah Menteri Besar Datuk Seri Muhammad Sanusi Md Nor, who is also the PN election director, offered to sell treated water to Penang to meet the supply shortage in this area, utilising the surplus of treated water from the neighbouring Lubuk Buntar treatment plant near Kulim, upon its completion.

Whether this is a concrete proposal to solve the issue or mere electioneering remains to be seen, as several areas in Kedah, including Merbok, Sungai Petani and Bandar Baharu, are also facing water issues due to low pressure and frequent supply disruptions.

In an earlier indication of efforts to solve the issue, Prime Minister Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim had announced in May that the Perak government had agreed to supply water to Penang through the Kerian Integrated Green Industrial Park to Seberang Perai, including Sungai Bakap, with a view to settle the problem for good.

Interestingly, just days before nomination day, the Penang Water Supply Corporation (PBAPP) announced the completion of the new dissolved air flotation water treatment plant in Bukit Panchor, Nibong Tebal, which could produce an additional 10 million litres per day for about 1,500 account holders, especially in Sungai Bakap.

PBAPP had also previously announced that it is investing in new suction tanks in the pumping station of Taman Widuri and Taman Wellesley costing RM1.2 million, as well as a portable water treatment plant in Taman Sungai Duri Indah costing RM800,000, as part of short-term measures to address the water woes. However, PBAPP acknowledged that the water issues affecting Mukim 5 residents will only be fully resolved by 2028.

“We have taken various interventions, both in terms of short-term and long-term measures [to solve this issue],” Education Minister Fadhlina Sidek, the member of parliament for Nibong Tebal, told The Edge during campaigning. “We have set up pump houses and pressure boosters to plug the water shortage in the meantime. We have also held briefings from time to time with the residents together with the PBAPP [to keep them updated].” Sungai Bakap is a state constituency under the Nibong Tebal parliamentary seat.

“I think the long-term plan will have a greater impact on the water issue as a whole. So we have never left the rakyat [to cope] with this problem. Even though it is an ongoing issue, we still carry out interventions based on need,” she said.

In the same vein, Joohari too committed to resolve this issue before the end of his term, if elected. “This water supply issue is a problem that has been going on for a long time. Even the previous leaders tried to resolve it, but I believe, God willing,I will try to overcome this issue during my term [if elected].”

Evidently, local issues are a major preoccupation for the folks in Sungai Bakap. Nevertheless, it is interesting to observe that PN has been framing this by-election as some sort of a referendum on the unity government at the federal level.

This is not unexpected, says political analyst Prof Dr Bridget Welsh, honorary research associate with the University of Nottingham Malaysia, as PN has been framing all the by-elections since GE15 as a referendum on Anwar’s leadership. “It is the best framing as they have not provided an alternative plan for governance nor developed a narrative of how they will impact state governance in Penang. It is also typical of opposition positioning, to vote for the other and fuel discontent. It galvanises the base, but does not win over new voters.”

Prof Datuk Dr Sivamurugan Pandian, professor in political sociology at the School of Social Sciences in USM contends that it is not accurate for competing parties to describe the by-election as a nationwide referendum as it is more multifaceted and localised than a general election. “Local issues such as water, flooding, job opportunities, education and infrastructure are pertinent, and neglecting these issues could become the push and pull factors among the voters. However, the late Zamri won with a slim majority and PH can use this by-election to ensure whatever promises [it makes] can be fulfilled if given another chance to step in.”

While PH has been promising to address these issues once and for all, Welsh questions whether these local concerns will be addressed seriously after the dust settles. On the other hand, Welsh also cast doubt on PAS’ ability to actually resolve the issues.

“For PKR, this election is more high stakes, but the responses will involve more concerted efforts than seen so far. PAS on its part can discuss the issues, but not resolve them as they are not in either the federal or state government.”

BN-Umno votes up for grabs

As local issues are prevailing in this campaign, analysts that The Edge spoke to have all rejected the idea that this by-election will serve as a test to measure the strength of the green wave and the continued influence of PAS in Penang. They say the outcome of this by-election may not be a good indicator of the sentiment on national politics.

“PH is walking in as an underdog because they are not the incumbent, but a win will increase their moral legitimacy,” Sivamurugan says. “For PN, if they win, they will claim the green wave is here to stay but if they lose, we cannot use it as a yardstick to show they lost the Malay support because all [of PH’s] machinery is focused here compared to a general election.”

IDEAS’ Aira concurs, saying PN is the natural favourite to win as it is the incumbent in this seat. “I don’t think the result will have a significant impact on national sentiments, although a PN loss would probably boost the confidence of the unity government.”

In this sense, the voting trend among BN-Umno supporters in this by-election is pivotal; whether they return to support the PH candidate or protest and cast their vote for PN-PAS. This, analysts say, could become the deciding factor.

Deputy prime minister and BN chairman Datuk Seri Ahmad Zahid Hamidi was previously quoted as saying BN is banking on the support of Umno members in Sungai Bakap to help the unity government create an upset against PN-PAS. The Umno president said the party’s machinery is ramping up efforts to ensure that the majority of the 5,105 Umno members in the constituency vote for the unity government candidate in the by-election.

While BN leaders have teamed up with PH in this campaign, University of Nottingham Malaysia’s Welsh argues that the relationship between these coalitions may not be nearly as positive on the ground. However, a small swing in PH’s favour can make a difference, she says, but it will require patronage and engagement to win the BN voters over.

“Recent voting trends of Umno voters point to two trends — moving to PAS or not coming out [to vote]. In my detailed post-election analysis in Kuala Kubu Bharu, PH captured very few Umno voters despite saying otherwise. The key question is whether Umno erosion has reached its peak, and this will be shaped by younger voters and Umno’s campaign for PH.”

Welsh further posits that the unity between PH and BN is determined largely by the relationship between two men — Anwar and Zahid — while the rest of BN may be simmering with discontent. “A loss for PH, where PKR blames Umno for failing to deliver votes or Umno blames PKR for failing to deliver patronage, will cause strain on the ground. The discontent on the ground has been simmering, fuelling anti-Zahid sentiment and enabling the ethno-nationalist narratives of Umno youth leaders. This simmering of discontent is likely to be enhanced but is contained by the leaders’ cooperation — for now.”

Getting down to business

Also notable are the different strategies the two competing coalitions are using to attract voters. While PH has mostly focused on traditional campaigning, such as walkabouts, ceramah, and mainstream media engagements, PN has resorted to social media, specifically TikTok, to broadcast its messages.

On nomination day, The Edge observed no fewer than five groups of PN supporters streaming the march on TikTok live, as they interviewed some of the PN leaders and fellow supporters.

Welsh says this approach has been very effective, especially in engaging more disengaged voters and younger voters. “The party pushed the relatability and likeability cards in its campaign and the positive results speak for themselves. They have worked to make the candidate accessible and this works in their favour.”

USM’s Sivamurugan concurs, saying PN’s previous victories were mainly based on the interaction and information shared in social media. “This strategy is contemporary and could maintain their youth vote bank.”

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