For French market, hung parliament 'might be better outcome than to give power to far right or left'

Clovis Kasali, thank you for that. And joining me now is Renard Foucault, a French politics specialist from Lancaster University in the UK. Renault, thank you very much. You're going to be with us in the course of the next 20 minutes or so. So let me start with asking you this. An estimated 12 million people voted for the National Rally. This itself has dramatically reshaped the country's political landscape, hasn't it? Yes. I think this is completely unprecedented because the the high scores of the far right have always been at the same time with record abstention. So there was this idea that the far right does well because people stay at home, they don't want to hear about politics. But this time every party, the far right, the left, but even Emmanuel Macron's party got more votes than in the last legislative election. So this is a big moment in which millions and millions of people have voted for the far right. And if you look at the details, they've largely replaced the voters of the right, so the far right as the sum of the far right and of the Republican is not particularly surprisingly high. What is very high is that they've been for the original party of anti immigration and not for the conservative Republican or the right of Macron. What do you think is the appeal of the RN to French voters, particularly young people? I guess as usual there is the the idea of or we haven't tried that before, we are angry etcetera. I think there is to me something that happens since Sarkozy slowly and slowly, is that centre right and right wing parties have been very much following the themes of the far right on migration, security, secularism, you know, obsessing about the length of the tresses of girls in school, those kind of thing. It really may be given the the willingness of voters to look at the original and not at the copy. This is something that happens in the UK with Sunak and Faraj. There's something that happens in Germany with the CD win IFD. The idea that it should follow the theme of the far right. The far right is not scary anymore and as a result France is in uncharted wrought waters right now. But clearly the focus is on other parties working very hard to block the RN from obtaining power in the National Assembly. For the viewers living outside of France, can you explain what that actually means? Yes. So what is important is that as opposed to the presidential election in France, when there is the run off, there can be more than two candidates and in this case, because participation has been so high, there are often 3 candidates running for one job of MP. Traditionally in France there has been something called the France Republican, meaning that if you are in the third place, you remove yourself from the competition and you call to vote for the best place Democratic candidate against the far right. This time the left has been very quick to say they would do that. This was not as obvious in 2022. Gabriel ET al. The Prime Minister has been very clear also that he wants his candidate to withdraw. But on the right of the centre, former Prime Minister like Edward Philippe Francois Beirut, former head of the centre, they've been much, much, much less direct. And they're actually calling for neither the left nor the far right. I mean, neither the far left nor the far right, meaning that this time there may be a lot of three-way contest, and in that case, someone national might do much better than if it's facing only one candidate. Brendan, stay with us because we are now gonna take a look at the 2nd party that did very well or, you know, came in second rather to the RN. And that, of course, is the New Popular Front. And Jenny Shin explains how the French left went from the new Ecological and Social Popular Union known by the acronym New PES to what is now known as the New Popular Front. In this election. Ahead of the French parliamentary elections in 2022, a new left wing alliance was formed by the radical left France unbowed led by Jean Luc Miller. Jean the new Ecological and social Popular Union, going by the French acronym NUPES quarrel together, an alliance of Frances progressive forces, the socialists, greens, communists and France Unbowed. It positioned itself as the main challenger to President Emmanuel Macron and his reform centred and business friendly policies. But Meno Shawn's polarizing character and the party's policy differences, notably over the conflict in the Middle East, triggered its de facto collapse. Fast forward to 2024. Confronted with the far right's historic gains in the European elections, it took the left only four days to reach a similar agreement. The same four parties decided to join forces once again, this time running under the rebranded banner the Nouveau from popular, the New Popular Front. It's Amos loud and clear to stop the far right National Rally from coming into power and challenge the Macronis Center. And I think everyone here today acknowledges the history of what we're experiencing and in particular the urgency we're facing. An extremely worrying political situation fraught with danger, with the threat of the far right coming to power. That's what we've come to talk about today. Like New Pez, the New Popular Front grounds itself in the principles that Melchon champions and positions itself as a voice of unity on the left. Its manifesto outlines its plans for a policy overhaul, including price freezes on basic necessities, the repeal of the increase in the retirement age to 64, the repeal of Macron's immigration law and, on an international level, a call for the immediate recognition of Palestinian statehood. I'm going to go back to again again rather to Renault Fouka, a French politics specialist from Lancaster University in the UK. Renault, The New Popular Front is an alliance of left wing parties, including Jean Luc Melichon's France Unbowed party. Last night Melichon clearly said that any left wing candidate will bow out if they have no chance of winning. Is that strategy actually going to work? I think this is a very clear strategy and in the sense that the message of the New Left Coalition was to say we are here to block the race on Lamo National, this is as clear as it gets. And I think this sends a message to the voter that they are forming an alternative. So they all hate each other. No, they don't agree on a lot of things within the left, but there is this sense of urgency that Emmanuel Macron in the past, by creating this very wide centre had only created the possibility of extreme alternative. Here. They want to present themselves as we're giving you the choice. And also there is this sense of urgency that if there are some more national gets to power, it's an autocratic party, like in Hungary, like in Poland, like in Turkey, like in Donald Trump, United States, It's not clear. When you give the key of power to those people, you should get a chance to compete again in the next election. So there is this idea for this time we withdraw our candidate, we support anyone on the centre. But this will only work if the centre does the same. And this is Alf. We're good. I think Gabriella Tel has been very clear. But not everyone is on the same line. And that will make the difference between a majority for us or more national or a plurality of votes. The reality is, and you talked about the fact that not everybody gets on in this particular alliance. Melichon himself is a divisive figure. But given what is at stake, do you think the alliance will be able to hold it together in order to block the far right from taking power next weekend? I think at the moment is the most likely scenario. If you look at the stock market this morning, they seem to have a little bit of relief in financial market that OK, a hung parliament is actually the best thing that could happen, not necessarily for France, but for Europe, because it means you will not stop supporting Ukraine, you will not stop any moves of European integration or financial support. You will not have some other countries trying to challenge the independence of the European Central Bank, that kind of thing. So I think yes, the the left will go, I think into a hung parliament and then they will start, of course, disagreeing among themselves on another thing and will start a re composition of the French politics, unless of course, as someone national wins. And that's a completely different world that opens to us. Renault, Foucault, do stay with us because now let's turn our attention to President Emmanuel Macron, who of course called this snap election after his party was tranched by the National Rally in the European elections last month. But as Delano D'souza explains now, it was a gamble that didn't pay off. He launched a political movement that turned French politics on its head. All March was a starting point for an ambitious quest by Emmanuel Macron to secure the presidency firmly in the centre but taking on policies from both the right and left. It resulted in the two traditional parties kept out of the second round of the presidential vote in 2017 for the first time in nearly 60 years. Banker, presidential aid, finance minister and then president at age 39, Emmanuel Macron's entire time in office has been spent with the threat of a far right surge looming from the yellow vest movement to protest over pension reform, the COVID-19 pandemic and the war in Ukraine. Macron has grappled with a series of crises. In 2022, he did what his two predecessors were unable to and secured a second term as president after appealing to voters on the left. I also know that many people voted for me, not because of my policies, but to keep the far right out. Weeks later, Macron suffered his first set back in his second term, his party failed to secure a majority in parliament. It's made pushing through reforms like raising the retirement age to 64 more cumbersome, leaving the president with little choice but to use special powers to bypass parliament. Neoliberal economic policies and a number of gaffes over the years have earned Macron the nickname Jupiter, often viewed as someone who's simply out of touch. You can go across the street and you'll find a job. EU parliamentary elections in June were the most recent gauge of Macron's popularity following its outcome. The president caused a political storm when he dissolved parliament, a risky move which is likely to see Macron left with his hands tied for the rest of his term and his party struggling to survive. And joining me now from Emmanuel Macron's Reneece's party headquarters is France 24's Peter O'Brien. Peter, we've been talking there with our guests about the conflicting messages from the centrist bloc, about how people should vote to keep out the national rally next weekend with Macron and Edouard Philippe Zagnini, As in neither far left or far right. So what have people been saying at the HQ where you are? Well, the message has been confusing. There's 303 way races come Sunday, and up until today even, there didn't seem to be much clarity on what the Renaissance Party was telling people to vote for and what they were telling their candidates to do. I just spoke to an team member of Gabriella Tao, the Prime Minister, who's meant to be holding a big online video conference with all of the candidates having just met with the other ministers and with Emmanuel Macron at the Elysee earlier. And they seem to have now finally devised a clear strategy, which is if you are third placed as a candidate and the Hassan Lemon Nationale, the far right is likely is likely to win, drop out the race and make sure the other candidates gets as many votes as possible. Now, there is an asterisk to this. They're saying that in some cherry picked scenarios in some of the seats, we're actually not going to say that. We're going to determine that the far left candidate, the one belonging to LFE, might be just as dangerous as the far right one. And in that case, they won't be dropping out of these 3 way races. But as you can see, it's still pretty confusing to explain. And even after Gabriella made his address to the public after the vote was announced, the results came in last night. And as you say, we heard from other big figures in the what was until now, the majority presidential majority having different ideas about what to do. I'm not sure it's going to convince voters to necessarily follow along with what they're saying because we know how much Macron's camp still does not like the far left. We might know how much the far left does not like Macron's camp. So Sunday is still very much up in the air. And given what you've been saying and their appalling result this weekend, what indeed is the mood like among people at the headquarters? What's the what? Sorry. Say that again. I'm sorry, Peter. I'm just saying what is the mood like among people there at the party headquarters? Yeah, so as we were saying last night when we were following the coverage, there was confusion because we're expecting some sort of soil electoral, some sort of at least acknowledgement of the of the results coming in here. We had our journalists here and actually it turns out they wouldn't want weren't here at all any of the candidates or the party members. And instead Gabriella Tao decides to do this address at Matignon. So I think the idea there was to give us sort of solemn sense of the state still being in control and Emmanuel Macron still having a say. But actually, if you look at all the divisions that have been in this centrist block and this disastrous decision that he made to call the snap election, it's very much posturing and a bit of a facade doing this kind of thing at the Matignon Palace when we know that in reality, it's they're no longer Macron is likely no longer going to be calling the shots come Sunday. It will either be the far, far right in power or it'll be a hung parliament. So he's shot himself in the foot and he's taken out a shotgun and blasted the other one off while he's at it. Peter O'Brien reporting there from the Renaissance Party headquarters. Thank you. Now, listening to all that is Renault Foucault, a French politics specialist from Lancaster University. I have to ask you, is Emmanuel Macron a spent force? And given that there's clearly going to be a messy outcome next Sunday, how is he going to govern if he has to work with either a far right Prime Minister or the other alternative, a hung parliament? Well, a far right Prime Minister. Somehow there is a history of cohabitation in France. There is a relatively clear, I mean, it's not perfectly clear the definition of the power between the president and the Prime Minister. So they will be disagreeing on, for instance, who can dominate the European Commissioner or thing like that. But the view of what happens is relatively clear. It would be the far right preparing for the presidential election and trying to Georgia milanize itself, showing that they are respected. Now with a hung parliament, this is completely uncharted territory. We don't know what happens because it will largely depends on whether people are willing to do what they fail to do. Since the previous parliamentary election, which is to build alliances. All those people will be in power. Centrist in parliament, sorry, centrist or left wing will be there because of the support of each other against the Russian national. So there might be case for some technocratic government, some outsider being in charge of government that holds the country because Macron has one year in which is not allowed to dissolve parliament again. So whatever happens, there will need to be a role for some form of majority to pass law and to make the country simply function for one year in case of a hung parliament. But let me just ask that question again. Is Emmanuel Macron a spent force? Therefore, I think Emmanuel Macron sees himself as still pulling a lot of strength, and you don't even know what he wanted to achieve in the first place. In a way, if you take Emmanuel Macron, he's been elected and re elected in the only election he even rare for. He even ran for, he never lost an election. He wanted to reform France economically. He's been rather successful as changing France the way he wanted to change it. He wanted to play a leadership role in Europe. He played a very important role in Europe. Somehow you may think that for him, towards the end of his job, he might have some idea in mind of how to transition. I have no idea what he wants to do, so I cannot answer your question. But the conservative Republicans in the meantime, they're Republican rather, which split ahead of the vote with a small number of its MPs joining forces with the far right. They themselves have given no guidance as to how their supporters should vote. So what do you think is going to happen to the party and what and do you think they're going to issue any guidance as such? Some people from the Republican have left for the far right and I think a lot of them were just waiting for the outcome. And I wouldn't be surprised if a lot of people on the conservative right are now applying for job in a possible or some national administration because the far right have absolutely no experience of power. Even you know, Jordan Barilla is a 28 year old. It would be his first job to be Prime Minister of France. There would be a big, big need for responsible people. And I could totally imagine people from the Republican claiming, OK, we disagree with the far right, but we want to make the country work. But not everyone will agree with that. So there will be no clear message from the Republican. There will be some people will be pushing towards the far right. I think the main right wing newspaper, Le Figaro as roughly called to support the far right in the second round. But I think most of them will be able to wait and see attitude and saying no left, no right. We are the only one who believe in the Republic. Finally, Renault, a question perhaps a little bit down the future, if indeed we do have a hung parliament and all the energy is being funnelled into coalition, alliance building, what does that say about the running of the government, about the the country itself? What impact is that going to have? I think at the moment, given the difficulty to pass a budget, the size of the public that the need to invest in the energy transition or the discussion to have at the European level, this means huge weaknesses. Unless some outside personality comes up to have some form of legitimacy And all the country, you can expect the whole the soft power of France on the international stage to weaken and the country to just leave months after months. No, this is not in itself a catastrophe. And I think, again, the market reaction this morning shows that for investors, it might still be a better outcome than to give the power to the far right or indeed to the far left. Renault Foucault, thank you so much again for your excellent analysis. That's Renault Foucault, a French politics specialist from Lancaster University in the UK.