Bitcoin will have 'pretty sharp rebound' in the second half of the year, says Fundstrat's Tom Lee

That was Tom Lee funds track Global Advisors managing partner and CNBC contributor, but close enough for government work. You're right again. And once again, your rationale was born out and it was that inflation would continue to cool. It's July 1st, you have a new target for the end of the year or, or I've already sort of foreshadowed some of the things you were talking about the S&P earnings might even be above what you thought. Yes, I, I think that now that we're at the mid year 2025 earnings look a lot stronger than we thought at the start of the year. We thought maybe 260, it's probably closer to 275, maybe 280, even 285. And I think the multiple we thought originally could be 20 times that number for next year. But given the Fed has more reasons to be dovish and I think maybe the employment picture is softening PE multiples actually could be higher next year. So I'd say between now in your end, stocks should be higher. I mean we've had a strong first half already and second-half won't be as strong as the first half, but we should build upon those gains. So yeah, it looks pretty good. You have numbers. I mean, so if if the S&P is 285, you, you possibly that's earnings 285 up from 270 because the economy doesn't cool multiples don't expand. In fact, they might contract from 21 to 20. So if you multiply 20 * 285, you get to 5800. Yeah. So that that sounds like it would be within reasonable as a reasonable base case that stocks don't have to have a prodigious second-half. They just have to follow what typically happens in the second-half, especially in an election year. So 5800 for the year. What would that be the total return if it's 15 now? So yeah, So it's, you know, it's a little bit more than 20%, which would be after last year's 2424. That's a couple years no one really expected. I don't think that that's right. I mean, that's painful for people who've been sitting in cash for two years earning 5% because they missed out on a 50% gain. And that's 10 years worth of sitting on cash. So I think the end of this year is a little bit of a day reckoning for those who said, oh, I'm I'm happy with my 6 trillion in cash earning 5%. When in reality, unless the economy is rolling into recession, you know, the expansion continue for some time is the six trillion and that that's what's fueling this, that the additional liquidity people aren't fully invested. Was that gotten through organic positive means or was it gotten through stimulus that shouldn't have been probably legislated and and shouldn't have been printed? Is it, is it good money or is it money that comes home to roost because it's it's too much? I haven't deconstructed that, but it it's a valid point because, you know, we are running a pretty big fiscal deficit at a time when it's not necessary. There is a lot of earned income on people's assets. I think that accounted for a lot of this increase in cash. And historically that would have been invested, reinvested in the economy or into equities. But it's been instead earning cash. You know that my insecurity about crypto manifested itself again in my feet of clay because I said Tom Lee is going to be absolutely right about the 5500. Why is he still saying 150 for Bitcoin? Why do that? Why not just focus on stock? Don't stick your neck out because it was falling below 60,000. Now it's back to almost 63,000. So that's six trillion we just talked about. That sort of plays into your Bitcoin thesis. That's right, Bitcoins probably suffering from the Mount Gox, you know, starting distributions in July. That was a huge overhang for many years. But if I was invest in crypto, knowing that one of the biggest overhangs is going to disappear in July, I think it's a reason to actually expect a pretty sharp rebound in the second-half. So I think, you know, 150 still within it's already July 1st. So that's that's so you're not taking that off the table. That's still a possibility. That's right. And you know, one thing to keep in mind, Bitcoin makes most of its gains within with 10 days every year. If you take out the 10 best days in a single year, Bitcoin actually has negative returns.