Joe Biden might lose

Lloyd C. Bautista

IT saddens me to say this, but US President Joe Biden might lose the US presidential elections on November 5 against ex-president Donald Trump. My fearless forecast is based on the recent surveys and June 27 CNN debate between the two contenders. In the recently concluded debate, Biden was seen fumbling with his words and often losing his train of thought. With his style for misleading and false arguments, Trump pounced on Biden, who looked dazed, at every turn and unleashed a torrent of attacks against him.

Despite his conviction on 34 felony counts in a Manhattan court, Mr. Trump appears triumphant against President Biden in the latest surveys. Biden needs fire in his belly to launch an aggressive campaign and match Trump's bravado. However, Biden's agonizing performance in the televised debate made an imprint to many American voters that Trump, 78, is more physically and mentally fit than Biden, 81, to be the country's 47th president.

It was painful to watch a hoarse President Biden, who was suffering from a cold and severe sore throat, trying to fend off Trump's sharp criticisms and hyperbole during the debate. The Democratic Party leadership is in panic mode, with donors seeking to convince President Biden to step aside for younger and more charismatic nominees, such as Vice President Kamala Harris or California Gov. Gavin Newsom, who likely can defeat Trump.

As an avid follower of US elections, I learned that 48 percent of American voters would choose Trump for president against Biden's 42 percent, according to latest New York Times/Siena poll. In four "swing states" — Arizona, Georgia, Nevada and North Carolina — Trump had single-digit leads. In the US Constitution, you win the presidency not by popular vote but rather by winner-take-all through proportional votes of each state in the Electoral College. A presidential contender needs to secure 270 of the 538 Electoral College votes. The crucial issues that will decide the US elections are the economy, inflation, immigration reforms, border security, abortion rights and health care. As to foreign policy, many Americans believe the US is providing too much military aid for Ukraine and Israel.

So, what if President Biden loses to Donald Trump in the November elections? Would it have an impact on the Philippines' national security?

I predict tensions with China will heighten if Donald Trump wins the presidency. Few people know that it was Trump's Secretary of State, Mike Pompeo, who assured the Philippines of US support for its territorial and maritime claims under international laws. In fact, it was during the Trump administration, in August 2020, that the US Navy for the first time in a decade sent two aircraft carrier strike groups to the South China Sea. Unlike Biden's empty words like "ironclad" or "strong commitment" with the Philippines, Trump preferred an openly assertive use of military force through more naval and air presence in the South China Sea to meet China's creeping invasion.

In the aftermath of the Ayungin Shoal incident, Philippine officials recognize that Biden's support against China was limited to hand-wringing and diplomatic pressure. In a Trump administration, the US might take stronger military steps against China's bullying and unlawful actions. Trump's pompous persona can either ratchet up the volatile situation, forcing China to back off or instigate a final showdown between the two nuclear powers.

With possible changes in US leadership soon, our national security and diplomatic advisers should begin the "what-ifs" scenario planning, anticipate US military deployment to counter China and offer President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. practical options to ensure peace and stability in the region. We need a well-designed exit strategy from an impending war. A Trump presidency will be more unhinged and dangerous to the contested maritime waters. President Marcos may face the reality of US armed intervention if Trump forcefully decides to contain China's unruly behavior.

It cannot be exaggerated that a Trump victory in November could stir up the ominous conflict in the South China Sea and irreversibly bring us closer to an actual US-China armed confrontation. I believe that Donald Trump can either have a destabilizing effect on the region or finally put China in its proper place.