India may experience above normal rainfall in July, northwest recorded its warmest June since 1901: IMD

NEW DELHI: Overall monsoon rainfall in July is most likely to be ‘above normal’ over the country as a whole except in parts of northeast, east Uttar Pradesh, west Bihar and south peninsula, said India Meteorological Department (IMD) on Monday. It also shared that northwest India recorded its warmest June this year by reporting the highest maximum (day) and mean temperatures of the month since 1901.

Above normal rainfall (more than 106% of the long period average) in July means beginning of brisk kharif (summer sown crops) sowing operation in the month which may eventually lead to overall normal acreage in the season - a key to better prospect of food grains output in the country.

The Met department also expects fairly good rainfall in the second half of the monsoon (August-September) due to formation of the La Nina — periodic cooling of ocean surface temperatures in the central and east-central equatorial Pacific. Such conditions are generally associated with good monsoon rainfall in India.

It means the four-month season will eventually log out with ‘above normal’ monsoon rainfall despite a deficit in June which reported nearly 11% of less than normal rainfall.

“In 20 out of the 25 years, when June rainfall was below normal, July rainfall was normal or above normal. Similarly, in 17 of the 25 years, when June rainfall was below normal, overall southwest monsoon rainfall was normal or above normal,” said IMD chief Mrutyunjay Mohapatra while sharing past data that indicate high probability of ‘above normal’ seasonal rainfall in the country when the La Nina would be an important factor.

As far as temperature is concerned, good rainfall will bring relief with maximum (day) temperature being normal to below normal over many parts of the northwest India in July.

In contrast, northwest India recorded a mean temperature of 31.73 degrees Celsius in June, 1.65 degrees Celsius above normal and the highest since 1901. Even the monthly average maximum temperature in the region was 38.02 degrees Celsius, 1.96 degrees Celsius above normal and highest since 1901.

IMD data shows that Rajasthan, MP, Punjab, Haryana, Chandigarh, Delhi, west and east UP, HP, Odisha, West Bengal, Jharkhand, Bihar, and Saurashtra and Kutch regions of Gujarat experienced 20 to 38 days of heat waves during April-June period.

The summer (March-June) in India this year experienced around a total of 536 heat wave days (heat wave days of all 36 meteorological subdivisions put together) - the highest in the last 14-years, after 2010 (578 days). As far as June is concerned, the country experienced 181 heat wave days, the highest in the last 15-years with earlier highest recorded in 2010 (177 days).

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