Labour to win, Tories to lose: but what Britain really needs is MPs free to speak their mind
The Commons debate on the King’s Speech during the state opening of parliament on 7 November 2023. Photograph: UK Parliament/Jessica Taylor/PA
For the next two years, the best job in British politics will be leader of the opposition. The first two years is usually the honeymoon period for an opposition party. Keir Starmer, meanwhile – if he is indeed the next prime minister – will be wrestling with an appalling bequest: a cabinet bereft of recent cabinet experience and his vague election promises of “growth”. A deft opponent would be wise to play him like a fish on a hook. Hence, several Tories have made recent final pleas to this Thursday’s electorate to vote Conservative so the incoming government has at least some viable opposition.
Once the new government is formed, parliamentary opposition will be about winning arguments in debate, not voting strength. If polls are correct, the Tories will be suffering from post-traumatic stress disorder come the end of next week. With some polls projecting the Tories will claim just 115 seats, scrutiny of the government is nearly as likely to come from the Liberal Democrats, Scottish Nationalists, Greens or even Reform UK, projected to take a smaller, but sizeable chunk of votes, due to their gift of being parties not tainted by the Tories’ record of the past 14 years.
Starmer’s toughest opponents will, anyway, come from within his own party, and their “comrades”. Labour leaders are traditionally bashed and bloodied by trade union leaders, leftwing councils, thinktanks and disgruntled backbenchers refused jobs. Tony Blair’s nightmare was his old friend and nextdoor neighbour, a certain Gordon Brown, and Blair also famously faced fierce internal opposition over Iraq in 2003 despite his 167-seat majority. For any party, a safe Commons majority leaves whips helpless and open to rebellion.
Most democracies institutionalise opposition by separating powers. The US sets Congress against the White House. France is this week electing a national assembly that is a standing check on the president. It is doing so with some care, requiring voters to choose the “least bad” candidate through a second vote where there is no simple majority on the first. This gives third parties real influence on the outcome. And yet, no such similar, democratic mechanism exists here in the UK.
It is hard to believe the Tories will not be in a majority in the forthcoming opposition. But it is possible that a coalition of minor parties could strike lucky, with each scoring a dozen or more seats, perhaps together, totalling more than the Tories. Parliamentary opposition needs discipline. With the Tories floundering over yet another bitterly divisive leadership contest, the concept of “His Majesty’s loyal opposition” could descend into anarchy.
To say this sorry state of affairs, in which we must simply suffice with a Commons unable to hold the government of the day to account, is crying out for reform is an understatement. Britain is not being well ruled at present. Starmer’s programme is bereft of reform, other than a pathetically weak proposal to “eventually” abolish the House of Lords, made weaker by alleged plans to add dozens of Labour peers after 4 July, should the Labour party win. More power must go to MPs, certainly to Commons committees with public hearings. The theatrical idiocy of prime minister’s questions needs replacing with a more searching and dignified interrogation.
In sum, the need is for more independent-minded MPs of all parties. Voters have long had to struggle with the conundrum of voting for “party or person”. This Thursday it appears that party will win. But in a different world, things could be done differently. In marginal seats – say where no one wins over 50% – second preferences should be distributed. They should be declared on the ballot paper or, preferably as in France, in a second contest in which the abilities of the two leading candidates can be challenged.
The Commons is reluctant to reform itself, but it badly needs it. Now we supposedly know who the next government will be, voters, at least in marginal seats, should select their MPs as individuals, not loyal party members. They should judge them for intelligence, radicalism and independence – qualities likely to be in very short supply.
Simon Jenkins is a Guardian columnist