Reliance Industries Set For $100 Billion Market Cap Surge, Says Morgan Stanley

reliance industries set for $100 billion market cap surge, says morgan stanley

Mukesh Ambani-led Reliance Industries (RIL) is set for a significant increase in market capitalisation, potentially adding $60-100 billion, according to global brokerage firm Morgan Stanley. According to The Economic Times report, the firm has set a target price of Rs 3,540 for RIL shares in its base case scenario.

Morgan Stanley's analyst, Mayank Maheshwari, highlighted the potential for sustained earnings growth, driven by investments in new energy, retail expansion, and the repurposing of existing energy businesses.

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"These initiatives offer a long runway for consistent earnings growth beyond the next three years, provided the Return on Capital Employed (ROCE) remains above 10%. We project a 12% Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) in Earnings Per Share (EPS) from FY24 to FY27, with multiple growth triggers across various verticals," Maheshwari stated.

The report added that the brokerage firm also noted that RIL’s Return on Equity (ROE) is expected to exceed the cost of capital, as the company transitions to a more profitable, sustainable, and less cyclical growth model. This shift is attributed to changes in RIL's business and capital structure.

Morgan Stanley has increased its valuation multiples for RIL by 0.5-1.0x, reflecting the anticipated monetisation benefits. This adjustment aligns RIL with domestic and global peers, which have experienced a re-rating of multiples by approximately 30% over the past year due to business upcycles and monetisation efforts.

Factoring in recent telecom tariff hikes, oil prices, and refining margins, the brokerage has modestly raised its EPS estimates by 2025, with a 7% increase for 2026 and an 8% rise for 2027.

At the time of filing, the shares of Reliance Industries were trading at Rs 3114.25. According to the BSE analytics, the shares have given returns of 8.10 per cent in the last 1 week and 20.34 per cent in the last 6 months.

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