Modernization of PH military: Why is there no plan to increase AFP active personnel?
Modernization of PH military: Why is there no plan to increase AFP active personnel?
First word
THERE must be substance, I thought, in the story about the Philippines' $35-billion 10-year military modernization program because I encountered the report in many websites during the past two years that I did research on the territorial disputes and geopolitical situation in the South China Sea and Indo-Pacific region.
I saw it reported at length first in the Diplomat website, which subjected it to analysis, then the major wire and news agencies (The Associated Press, Agence France-Presse, Reuters, Bloomberg, etc.) also carried reports on it.
And now I have encountered it in the Defense Post, a major news organization based in Washington, D.C., that specializes in reporting on foreign affairs and developments on the defense and security front.
It's good to hear snippets from time to time about the country's program to modernize its armed forces, especially at this time when the Chinese have stepped up their aggressive actions in the South China Sea and inside our own exclusive economic zone, the West Philippine Sea (WPS).
If you think this confident talk about Philippine military modernization will suffice to deter China and moderate its aggressive actions against our vessels and troops in the disputed waterway, you must think and review the facts of what is really taking place.
No personnel increase
Remarkably, however, in all the mumbo jumbo about military modernization, there is evidently no project or plan to beef up the Armed Forces of the Philippines' (AFP) active personnel count of 150,000 regulars in the standing army. The AFP website speaks of a reserve force of 1.5 million, but there is no plan under way to create a reserve force that can make a difference in the event of conflict.
I want to interject here the point that the legendary feats of the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF), which has won for Israel so many wars against its Arab neighbors, is essentially built on reservist forces. Because of the scarcity of manpower, the IDF's most unusual characteristic is the role of its reserve forces.
In most militaries, reserve forces are constructed as appendages to the standing army, which is then its main line of defense. Israel is so much outnumbered by its adversaries that its standing army is not large enough to defend itself against an all-out assault by the enemy.
In the book "Start-up Nation" (Council on Foreign Relations, New York, 2009), authors Dan Senor and Saul Singer discuss the unique structure and qualities of the IDF. Reserve forces are the backbone of Israel's military.
Shortly after its successful war of independence, Israel's leaders decided on a unique reserved-dominated military structure, whereby reservists would not only man whole units, but could be commanded by reserve officers as well.
Asean Analytics, a website that posts reports and timely information on developments in Asean affairs, posted in YouTube a few months back some highly informative and encouraging reports on the progress of the modernization of the Philippines' armed forces.
Recent acquisitions, purchase orders
Its most recent reports carried an interestingly headlined post, "Is modern Philippine military enough to protect the West Philippine Sea?"
Analytics makes no assessment of the real capability of the AFP. It chiefly focuses facts and figures relating to the recent acquisitions, and orders and defense budgeting by the Philippines, to wit:
"The third phase of the Philippine military's 15-year modernization plan, dubbed Horizon 3, includes the acquisition of multi-role fighter jets, radars, two additional Jose Rizal-class frigates, missile systems, helicopters and the country's first submarine fleet. Initial plans also included acquiring additional BrahMos missiles and High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems for the Army for coastal defense. The modernization effort began in 2013, but budget limitations delayed progress.
Defense Secretary Gilberto Teodoro Jr. told Filipino lawmakers last month that 10 percent of Horizon 1, meant to take place from 2013 to 2018, and about 53 percent of Horizon 2, scheduled from 2018 to 2022, are complete. However, in response to clashes between China and the Philippines in recent weeks, Manila is speeding up its acquisition plans, with the legislature earmarking P45 billion in defense spending for 2024. Senators have relayed support in passing supplemental budgets for intelligence and materiel acquisitions related to South China Sea operations.
Last week, the Defense Department ordered three C-130J-30 Super Hercules tactical airlifters for delivery in 2026, according to a news release from Lockheed Martin. The Philippines is also expecting to receive two BrahMos missile units in December from India; more Acero-class gunboats next year under a deal with Israel; two new landing dock platforms from Indonesia next year; two corvettes from South Korea around in 2025 and 2026; and six offshore patrol vessels also from South Korea in 2028. Horizon 3 requires P500 billion spread out over the next six years, but it is unclear how the government intends to finance the program.
However, some countries have offered assistance. For example, France pitched its Scorpene diesel-electric submarines as early as 2019, and its proposal includes helping the Philippine Navy develop its base in Zambales. Others bidding to supply the Philippines with submarines include Spain, which submitted a $1.7 billion offer to supply two S-80-class submarines, and South Korea's Hanwha Ocean, which updated its proposal last month for two Jangbogo-III diesel-electric submarines.
PH forward defense strategy
While the Philippine military has yet to release its final plans for Horizon 3, the realignment will include less but more potent assets and platforms, according to AFP chief Romeo Brawner. The materiel will align with the country's forward-defense strategy, wherein threats are pushed as further away as possible, Brawner said, adding that the military's goal is to immediately deploy fighter jets and other assets after reported encounters with Chinese vessels. According to the country's new territorial defense strategy released last week, the Philippines is placing particular importance on islands it claims as its own, including what the government calls the West Philippine Sea group of islands as part of the Philippines' continental shelves.
The Philippine military is realigning its modernization program to strengthen territorial and coastal defense amid escalating tensions with China. Brawner said changes are geared toward protecting the country's territories in the South China Sea, particularly Thitu Island. That land mass, called Pag-asa Island by the Philippines, is home to more than 400 Filipinos. It is also one of several disputed islands in the South China Sea. A delegation from the Department of National Defense visited two major South Korean defense equipment manufacturers amid growing calls from various sectors to expedite the ongoing Armed Forces modernization program in response to tensions in the waterway. Hanwha Ocean is offering their Jangbogo IIPN submarine for Horizon 3, which is scheduled from 2023 to 2028. The project has a planned budget of P110 billion and is geared toward the acquisition of two modern diesel-electric submarines."
Secretary Teodoro has equated Chinese behavior in the region to that of a schoolyard bully. Recent incidents have placed the region on edge as they consist now of not just water cannons to block Philippine vessels.
Whenever we move to defend our rights and show measure of defense capability, the Chinese ambassador to the Philippines and Chinese foreign ministry officials immediately issue warnings against Filipino provocations in the region and warnings against the US foreign meddling in the dispute and encouraging Filipinos to defy China.
In the end, everything comes down to the truth or substance of our highly touted military modernization plan. What will it really do, and how soon will we be ready to defend our rights in the WPS?
The Horizon 3, according to President Ferdinand Marcos Jr., is the final stage of a three-phase modernization initiative that started in 2013 in response to Chinese aggression in the South China Sea.
As part of the plan, Manila will ramp up acquisition of modern weapons and equipment to bolster its defense capabilities against emerging threats.
More specifically, it will focus on increasing the country's domain awareness, connectivity, surveillance, reconnaissance and intelligence-gathering capabilities.
"The Armed Forces will transition initially to enable itself to guarantee, as much as possible, Philippine nationals, Philippine corporations and those authorized by the Philippine government, the unimpeded and peaceful exploration and exploitation of all natural resources within our exclusive economic zone and other areas where we have jurisdiction," said Secretary Teodoro.