Why Biden and Democrats have given up on winning Florida

JACKSONVILLE, Fla. — “Florida, Florida, Florida!” the late NBC host Tim Russert scribbled on a white board during election night 2000, predicting the nailbiter presidential race would come down to that state — and the phrase was used for about two decades afterwards as pundits debated its swing-state status.

Times have changed and a big part of the reason why: a state Democratic Party that’s been perpetually in reactive mode, two steps behind the Republican Party not just politically but electorally — as epitomized by the GOP holding both Senate seats and a supermajority of both the congressional delegation and the state Legislature.

After a series of feckless and forgettable chairs, Nikki Fried took helm of the Florida Democrats some months back. But it was only a matter of time before the former agriculture commissioner found out what national Dems really think of the party building going on there.

President Biden’s chief campaign aide Jen O’Malley Dillon admitted that Florida is not in play for the president in the general election. THOMAS BENDER/HERALD-TRIBUNE / USA TODAY NETWORK

That brutal reckoning came last week, as the party sought to weaponize the anniversary of the Supreme Court’s 2022 Dobbs decision — one that reverted abortion regulations to the states and paved the way for Florida’s current ban on the procedure after six weeks of gestation.

The predictable parade of press releases hit a major national roadblock when President Biden’s chief campaign aide, Jen O’Malley Dillon, dismissed the party’s chances in the state with one word.

“No,” she told Puck News when asked if Florida’s in play.

The interviewer thanked her for not lying, but Florida Democrats and even the Biden campaign itself took longer to formulate responses.

“Donald Trump can’t win the presidency without winning Florida. We’re not naïve about the challenges ahead, but we’re building the foundation of Democratic success, not just for this cycle, but for the years and decades to come. Don’t count Florida out,” Fried said around 3 p.m., eight hours after the bombshell dropped.

Biden supporters at a campaign event at Hillsborough Community College in Tampa on April 24, 2024. THOMAS BENDER/HERALD-TRIBUNE / USA TODAY NETWORK

Positive answer! But for Biden, on the wrong side of 80 and facing questions about not only whether he can serve another term but if he can even offer a simulacrum of executive function between now and November, “years and decades to come” is pure, uncut hypothetical.

The Biden campaign was even slower, taking until the end of happy hour to cobble together its response to a key strategist saying it needs to look elsewhere for electoral votes.

“Florida is in play for President Biden and Democrats up and down the ballot,” Team Biden claimed. “The President has a strong story to tell on the issues that matter most to Floridians, which is why our campaign continues to scale up our presence and investments into the state.”

Presence? Investments? Thus far, there’s little evidence of either.

We know Biden, for various reasons, is not a particularly active campaigner as his political career comes to a close. But there is nothing on the ground here to suggest he’s willing to wade in personally and make a concerted effort to pitch Florida voters on why he needs four more years.

Democrats in the state have set up a series of tomato cans to run for legislative seats with Republican registration advantages, with the idea being they’ll synergize with the top of the ticket and bring voters out.

But these political neophytes have no clue — not about fundraising, not about the mechanics of a campaign and not about the fool’s errand they have embraced for reasons that seem more like ego fulfillment than electoral success.

Biden with Florida Democratic Chairwoman Nikki Fried on April 23, 2024. REUTERS/Kevin Lamarque

All this is to say the state Democratic Party and Biden campaign spokespeople really shouldn’t have bothered with responding to what Jen O’Malley Dillon said — especially given that they failed to engage or understand her central point.

In a game with limited resources and a limited candidate, it is foolhardy to bank on a GOP-controlled state that trends more Republican with each passing month.

She can admit that, yet the professionals tasked with pretending a simulacrum of a campaign will be close on Election Night don’t seem able — or willing — to tell the truth about where the president’s votes are and aren’t, in a state where no poll has shown Trump behind this cycle.

It’s as if they think political reporters are stupid. Never mind the voters themselves.